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COMMODITYSCOPE | DAILY MARKET BRIEF β NOV 5, 2026
Freight is falling. Diesel supply risks remain.
π’ CRUDE
Brent partially rebounded while Dubai weakened sharply.
Brent Jan: $98.29/b β$3.67 Β· Dubai Jan: $92.85/b β$8.04
Dated Brent: $95.98/b β$0.18. 20261106_DAILY_MARKET_NEWS
π’ FREIGHT β CORRECTION DEEPENS
WAF β UKC Suezmax: WS430 β110
Black Sea β Med Suezmax: WS675 β67.5
Med β UKC Aframax: WS287.5 β135
Ample tonnage is putting charterers in control. But the Hormuz premium persists: PG β China VLCC assessed WS1190, against Gulf of Oman bids at WS595β600. 20261106_DAILY_MARKET_NEWS 20261106_DAILY_MARKET_NEWS
β½ DIESEL β SUPPLY PRESSURE
Chinese refiners suspended gasoil exports to prioritise domestic demand. Jet and gasoline exports can continue. Chinaβs gasoil stocks fell ~6% m/m to 10.48m mt, their lowest since January 2023. 20261106_DAILY_MARKET_NEWS
US distillate inventories dropped 3.57m bbl to 99.26m bbl β the lowest since May 2003, and 12.3% below the five-year average. 20261106_DAILY_MARKET_NEWS
β΄ BUNKERS β REGIONAL SPLIT
Delivered 0.5%S marine fuel:
Singapore / Fujairah: $830/mt β$55
Rotterdam: $729/mt β$4 Β· Houston: $776/mt β$20. 20261106_DAILY_MARKET_NEWS
πΎ FERTILIZERS
Ammonia strengthened, but urea softened as offers struggled to attract business.
Egypt urea FOB: $520/mt β$10
Algeria FOB: $536/mt β$10
NOLA November FOB: $420/st β$6. 20261106_DAILY_MARKET_NEWS
MARKET SIGNAL
π» Atlantic tanker rates are correcting sharply.
β οΈ Hormuz freight remains elevated.
β οΈ Chinaβs gasoil export halt coincides with depleted US distillate stocks.
π» Urea softens while ammonia strengthens.
Physical markets. Freight. Forward curves. Spreads. Daily intelligence.
π https://t.co/C4oTZCPeRd
#Oil #Freight #Diesel #Bunkers #Fertilizers
COMMODITYSCOPE | DAILY MARKET BRIEF β NOV 4, 2026
Crude broke lower.
Freight softened globally.
European products followed.
But Hormuz still trades at a major premium.
ββββββββββββββββββ
π’ CRUDE
β’ ICE Brent Jan: $98.53/b β$5.07
β’ WTI Dec: $88.12/b β$7.97
β’ Dated Brent: $96.16/b β$9.04
Dubai Jan held firmer at $100.89/b.
Iranian crude imports into China collapsed to 275 kb/d in October β the lowest since the series began in 2022.
ββββββββββββββββββ
π’ FREIGHT
Dirty tanker markets softened sharply:
β’ PG β China VLCC: WS1200
β’ Gulf of Oman: WS610β650
β’ WAF β East: WS592.5 β35
β’ Black Sea β Med: WS742.5 β82.5
β’ WAF β Far East: $161.22/mt β34.7%
Yet inside-Hormuz freight still carries roughly a 2Γ premium versus Gulf of Oman levels.
ββββββββββββββββββ
β½ PRODUCTS
Europe sold off with crude:
β’ NWE Jet FOB: $1,384.75/mt β$74
β’ ULSD FOB NWE: $1,344.75/mt β$68.25
β’ NWE Naphtha CIF: $870.25/mt β$32.75
Asia naphtha stayed structurally tight, with the cash differential reaching a 3-month high of $58/mt.
ββββββββββββββββββ
π·πΊ REFINING
Renewed attacks have pushed roughly 47% of Russiaβs >7 mb/d refining capacity offline, according to CERA estimates.
Russian diesel/gasoil exports to the Mediterranean were down 81.5% y/y in October.
ββββββββββββββββββ
πΎ UREA / GAS
Urea softened again:
β’ China FOB: $340β345/t
β’ Egypt FOB: $530β540/t
β’ Middle East FOB: $440β450/t
β’ Brazil CFR: $465β475/t
TTF dropped to β¬85.54/MWh β6.6%, easing some pressure on European nitrogen economics.
ββββββββββββββββββ
MARKET SIGNAL
π» Brent fell below $100/b
π» Dated Brent lost more than $9/b
π» Global tanker freight corrected sharply
β οΈ Hormuz premium remains structurally high
π» European products weakened with crude
π» TTF fell below β¬86/MWh
Physical markets. Freight. Forward curves. Spreads. Daily intelligence.
π https://t.co/C4oTZCPeRd
#Oil #CrudeOil #Hormuz #Freight #VLCC #Diesel #JetFuel #Urea #Gas #Commodities
COMMODITYSCOPE | DAILY MARKET BRIEF β OCT 30, 2026
Hormuz risk is back in focus.
Dubai rebounded, tanker premiums remain extreme, European jet stocks hit a 12-year low β and TTF moved above β¬103/MWh.
ββββββββββββββββββ
π’ CRUDE / HORMUZ
Dubai cash-futures premium jumped:
+$7.13/b β$2.06
ending five straight sessions of decline.
Hormuz traffic recovered to 26 vessels, but fresh attacks and disruption reports kept risk elevated.
PG β China VLCC:
WS1215
Inside Gulf:
WS1200β1450
Gulf of Oman:
WS650β690
The inside-Hormuz freight premium remains massive.
ββββββββββββββββββ
π ATLANTIC CRUDE
North Sea physicals remain weak.
β’ Johan Sverdrup: β$0.79/b vs Dated
β’ Forties heard near negative territory
β’ Djeno: ~β$34.70/b vs Dated
December Johan Sverdrup supply is set to rise to 700kb/d, adding further pressure.
ββββββββββββββββββ
β½ PRODUCTS β EUROPE TIGHTENS
ARA jet stocks collapsed:
380kt β17.6% w/w
β lowest in 12 years
Naphtha stocks:
270kt β25.6% w/w
Fuel oil stocks also fell 18.1%.
Meanwhile:
β’ Jet CIF NWE: $1,585.50/mt
β’ LSFO crack: $29.80/b
β highest since July 2022
β’ SingaporeβRotterdam 0.5%S spread: $192.50/mt
β widest on record
ββββββββββββββββββ
πΎ UREA / GAS
European gas moved sharply higher:
TTF: β¬103.54/MWh β~6%
Egypt is considering a 20% cut in fertilizer production from November.
Urea:
β’ Egypt FOB: $535β540/t
β’ Middle East FOB: $445β455/t
β’ Brazil CFR: $465β480/t
β’ NOLA: $442/st
European nitrogen economics remain under severe pressure.
ββββββββββββββββββ
MARKET SIGNAL
πΊ Dubai risk premium rebounded sharply
β οΈ Hormuz freight remains structurally elevated
π» Atlantic crude differentials remain weak
β οΈ ARA jet stocks hit a 12-year low
πΊ LSFO crack reached its strongest level since 2022
πΊ TTF broke above β¬103/MWh
Physical markets. Freight. Forward curves. Spreads. Daily intelligence.
π https://t.co/C4oTZCPeRd
#Oil #CrudeOil #Hormuz #Freight #VLCC #JetFuel #Bunkers #Urea #Gas #Commodities
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π’οΈ ENERGY β Crude oil, diesel, gasoline, jet fuel & marine fuels.
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COMMODITYSCOPE
Physical Markets. Clear Intelligence.
COMMODITYSCOPE | DAILY MARKET BRIEF β OCT 29, 2026
Crude sold off again.
Dubai weakened for a fifth straight session.
European distillates followed lower.
But Hormuz freight is still trading in a different universe.
The market remains split between falling flat prices and persistent logistics risk.
ββββββββββββββββββ
π’ CRUDE
The selloff accelerated.
β’ Dated Brent: $114.82/b β$5.79
β’ North Sea basket: $119.12/b β$5.11
β’ Brent Dec: $114.06/b β$2.26
β’ WTI Dec: $102.00/b β$0.78
Dubai weakened again:
Cash Dubai premium: +$5.07/b β$0.61
That is the fifth consecutive daily decline.
North Sea physicals are also deteriorating, with November cargoes still unsold even as the December program enters the market.
Forties has been heard as weak as flat-to-negative vs Dated Brent.
ββββββββββββββββββ
π¨π³ CHINA β RUN CUTS
Chinese refiners are starting to react to weak margins and expensive feedstock.
At least five Sinopec refineries are expected to reduce November runs.
Chinaβs new clean-product export quota:
5.65m mt
But initial November exports are targeted at only:
~3.13m mt
That is roughly 15% below October.
China gasoline + gasoil stocks are also near their lowest since early 2023.
ββββββββββββββββββ
π’ VLCC FREIGHT β HORMUZ PREMIUM HOLDS
PG β China VLCC:
WS1165
Gulf of Oman β Far East:
WS625 | $124/mt
Inside Persian Gulf:
WS1100β1200
Gulf of Oman:
WS620β650
So despite the crude selloff, inside-Hormuz freight remains massively elevated relative to outside-Gulf loading.
Yanbu β Asia fixtures via Bab al-Mandab are being discussed around:
WS740β750
The geography still matters as much as the barrel.
ββββββββββββββββββ
π ATLANTIC / MED FREIGHT
Some routes softened sharply:
β’ Black Sea β Med Suezmax: WS975 β37.5
β’ Med β UKC Aframax: WS695 β80
β’ Ceyhan β Med: WS702.5 β80
β’ Libya β Med: WS712.5 β80
WAF β Far East VLCC remained comparatively stable at:
WS632.5
Atlantic freight is normalizing much faster than the Gulf.
ββββββββββββββββββ
β½ EUROPE PRODUCTS β SELLING PRESSURE
European refined products dropped sharply again.
β’ NWE Jet CIF: $1,539.75/mt β$53.50
β’ ULSD 10ppm FOB NWE: $1,435/mt β$43.25
β’ NWE gasoline: $1,135.50/mt β$28.75
But underlying diesel tightness has not disappeared.
The 50ppmβ10ppm ARA spread widened to roughly:
$47/mt
while ULSD barges traded +$14 to +$16/mt over ICE LSGO.
European countries are also preparing to release more than 42 million bbl of strategic reserves over the next three months, with around half expected to be diesel.
ββββββββββββββββββ
πΊπΈ US DISTILLATES
US ULSD exports fell to:
1.32 mb/d
β the lowest in 31 weeks.
USGC β Europe diesel arbitrage averaged:
β$0.68/b in October
vs
+$5.29/b in September
That helps explain why European diesel remains structurally supported despite lower flat prices.
ββββββββββββββββββ
πΈπ¬ ASIA PRODUCTS
Singapore product prices weakened again:
β’ 92 RON gasoline: $135.10/b β$3.70
β’ Kerosene: $165.24/b β$4.36
β’ 10ppm gasoil: $167.26/b β$3.75
Fujairah stocks remain elevated in heavy products:
β’ Heavy distillates/residues: 4.717m bbl
β’ Up 1.035m bbl w/w
That is the highest in three weeks.
ββββββββββββββββββ
πΎ UREA / GAS
European gas remains the critical nitrogen-market risk.
TTF peaked at:
β¬100.72/MWh
and remained near β¬98/MWh.
AGF Nitrogen is considering plant shutdowns across multiple European countries.
Potential ammonia capacity at risk:
β₯5m t
A full shutdown scenario could affect more than:
7.3m t
or around 40% of European ammonia capacity.
Egyptian granular urea remains around:
$535/t FOB
while Brazil softened slightly to:
$460β480/t CFR.
ββββββββββββββββββ
MARKET SIGNAL
π» Dated Brent fell another $5.79/b
π» Dubai weakened for a fifth straight session
β οΈ Inside-Hormuz VLCC freight remains structurally expensive
π» European jet, diesel and gasoline sold off sharply
π» US ULSD exports hit a 31-week low
π» China is preparing November refinery run cuts
β οΈ TTF near β¬100/MWh is threatening European nitrogen production
Physical markets. Freight. Forward curves. Spreads. Daily intelligence.
π https://t.co/C4oTZCPeRd
#Oil #CrudeOil #Hormuz #Freight #VLCC #Diesel #JetFuel #China #Urea #Gas #Commodities
COMMODITYSCOPE | DAILY MARKET BRIEF β OCT 28, 2026
Brent rebounded.
Dubai kept weakening.
Hormuz freight stayed structurally expensive.
European naphtha tightened.
And TTF pushed back above β¬100/MWh.
The market is still being driven by regional dislocation rather than one global price signal.
ββββββββββββββββββ
π’ CRUDE
Brent recovered after the previous sessionβs selloff.
β’ ICE Brent Dec: $116.32/b β$2.30
β’ Dated Brent: $120.61/b β$1.09
β’ Dubai Dec: $114.20/b β$0.90
β’ Dubai cash/futures premium: +$5.68/b β$0.49
Dubai weakened for a fourth consecutive session as Asian demand softened into month-end.
Meanwhile, the North Sea moved into contango across early November β a notable shift after weeks of extreme backwardation.
ββββββββββββββββββ
π’ VLCC FREIGHT β HORMUZ PREMIUM HOLDS
PG β China VLCC:
WS1155 | $240.12/mt
Inside Persian Gulf:
WS1250β1450
Gulf of Oman:
WS600β700
Gulf of Oman β Far East economics remain dramatically cheaper than loading inside Hormuz.
That premium is not disappearing.
It is being sustained by security risk and tighter available tonnage.
ββββββββββββββββββ
π DIRTY FREIGHT
Regional divergence continues.
β’ WAF β UKC Suezmax: WS720 β20
β’ Black Sea β Med Suezmax: WS1012.5 β52.5
β’ Vancouver β China Aframax: $12.5m β$1.75m
The broader tanker complex is normalizing unevenly β but Hormuz remains the outlier.
ββββββββββββββββββ
π§ͺ NAPHTHA β EUROPE TIGHTENS
Naphtha was one of the strongest physical product signals.
β’ CIF NWE: $984.75/mt β$27
β’ Nov/Dec backwardation: $44/mt
β’ Dec/Jan: $27/mt
β’ East-West spread: $76/mt
Petrochemical demand is returning as gasoline blending economics weaken.
Prompt supply remains tight.
ββββββββββββββββββ
β½ EUROPE DISTILLATES
Jet held firm:
β’ Jet CIF NWE: $1,593.25/mt β$10
Diesel remains supported by weak US inflows into NWE.
The USGC β Europe diesel arbitrage improved to:
+$1.70/b
but the incentive is still marginal.
No Saudi jet arrived into Europe in October, versus around 128kt in September.
ββββββββββββββββββ
πΈπ¬ ASIA PRODUCTS
Asia moved sharply lower on flat price.
β’ Singapore kerosene: $169.60/b β$9.04
β’ 10ppm gasoil: $171.01/b β$8.78
β’ 92 RON gasoline: β$3.77/b
At the same time, HSFO strengthened.
Fujairah inventories also shifted sharply:
β’ Light distillates: 1.942m bbl β638k
β’ Middle distillates: 2.255m bbl
β’ Heavy residues: 4.717m bbl β1.035m
ββββββββββββββββββ
β CLEAN FREIGHT
East-of-Suez LR markets remain distorted by Hormuz.
β’ AG β Japan LR1: WS1050
β’ Gulf of Oman β Japan LR1: WS520
Spread:
WS530
Charterers continue to use shuttle tankers to Oman and West Coast India for STS transfers.
Scorpio Tankersβ numbers show just how extreme the LR market became:
β’ Oct LR2 earnings: ~$168k/day
β’ Nov bookings: ~$215k/day
MR bookings have also risen sharply versus summer levels.
ββββββββββββββββββ
πΊπΈ US CRUDE
US commercial crude inventories fell again:
β’ Commercial crude: 410.6m bbl β1.9m
β’ Cushing: 26.9m bbl β453k
β’ Refinery runs: 16.6 mb/d
β’ Crude exports: 4.50 mb/d
The US inventory signal remains supportive even as global crude pricing stays volatile.
ββββββββββββββββββ
πΎ UREA / GAS
European gas is becoming the dominant fertilizer story.
TTF front-month:
β¬97.50/MWh at open
and later traded above:
β¬100/MWh
Europeβs second-largest nitrogen producer warned that plant shutdowns are under consideration because of gas costs.
Current urea markers:
β’ Middle East FOB: $440β455/t
β’ Egypt FOB: $535/t
β’ Brazil CFR: $465β485/t
β’ NOLA: $432β434/st
At current gas levels, European nitrogen production economics are becoming increasingly difficult.
ββββββββββββββββββ
MARKET SIGNAL
πΊ Brent rebounded above $116/b
π» Dubai weakened for a fourth consecutive session
β οΈ Inside-Hormuz freight remains dramatically above Gulf of Oman
πΊ European naphtha tightened sharply
π» Asian kerosene and gasoil flat prices fell hard
οΏ½οΏ½οΏ½οΏ½ US crude inventories declined again
β οΈ TTF traded above β¬100/MWh, raising renewed shutdown risk for European nitrogen plants
Physical markets. Freight. Forward curves. Spreads. Daily intelligence.
π https://t.co/C4oTZCPeRd
#Oil #CrudeOil #Hormuz #Freight #VLCC #Diesel #JetFuel #Naphtha #Urea #Gas #Commodities
COMMODITYSCOPE | DAILY MARKET BRIEF β OCT 27, 2026
Crude sold off hard.
Europe followed lower.
But freight risk around Hormuz remains extreme.
The market is being pulled in opposite directions:
weaker flat price β but persistent physical dislocation.
ββββββββββββββββββ
οΏ½οΏ½οΏ½ CRUDE β SHARP SELLOFF
Dated Brent posted one of the largest daily moves of the month:
β’ Dated Brent: $119.52/b β$8.45
β’ Dated Brent CIF: $124.00/b β$9.90
β’ ICE Brent Dec: $113.88/b
β’ WTI Dec: $99.90/b β$1.86
Dubai also weakened for a third consecutive session:
Cash Dubai premium: +$6.17/b β$0.52
The flat-price correction is now feeding directly into physical differentials.
ββββββββββββββββββ
π ATLANTIC CRUDE β PRESSURE BUILDS
Mediterranean and North Sea barrels remain under heavy pressure.
β’ CPC Blend: β$9.25 to β$9.75/b vs Dated
β’ Saharan Blend Nov OSP: +$5.75/b
β $7.25/b m/m
β’ Forties: heard below +$3/b
One trader summed it up:
βFreight has made the Atlantic basin locked.β
Atlantic barrels increasingly need to clear locally because long-haul economics simply do not work.
ββββββββββββββββββ
π’ VLCC FREIGHT β HORMUZ PREMIUM WIDENS
PG β China VLCC:
WS1150
Inside Persian Gulf:
WS1200β1450
Gulf of Oman:
WS585β615
Gulf of Oman β Far East:
$121.02/mt
A confirmed Fujairah β Short East fixture printed at:
WS650
The result is a massive geographic split:
inside-Gulf freight is still roughly 2Γ outside-Hormuz levels.
ββββββββββββββββββ
π ATLANTIC FREIGHT
Some Atlantic routes rebounded:
β’ WAF β East VLCC: WS630 β67.5
β’ Brazil β China VLCC: WS560 β25
β’ USGC β UKC Aframax: WS752.5 β27.5
β’ USGC β China VLCC: $58m β$0.5m
But Black Sea Suezmax softened:
WS1065 β35
Freight volatility remains extreme even as outright crude prices fall.
ββββββββββββββββββ
β½ EUROPE PRODUCTS β BROAD SELLOFF
European refined products moved sharply lower.
β’ Jet CIF NWE: $1,583.25/mt β$66.50
β’ Jet FOB NWE: $1,534.25/mt β$71.50
β’ ULSD FOB NWE: $1,466/mt β$56.25
β’ Naphtha FOB NWE: $957.75/mt β$24.25
β’ Eurobob: $1,085/mt β$24.50
The moves were primarily flat-price driven.
But freight continues to block arbitrage.
Gulf of Oman β NWE jet economics:
β$18.65/b
Gulf of Oman β Med:
β$11.58/b
ββββββββββββββββββ
β οΈ HORMUZ / MIDDLE EAST PRODUCTS
Middle East refinery outages were estimated around:
1.44 mb/d
during the review week.
Hormuz traffic also weakened:
β’ Oct 23: 27 transits/day
β’ Oct 24β25: 17/day
β’ Weekly transits: 146 vs 161
Energy-vessel movements fell another 15% w/w.
Owners are still reluctant to offer tonnage into what brokers openly describe as a βwar zone.β
ββββββββββββββββββ
πΈπ¬ ASIA PRODUCTS
Asia moved in the opposite direction from Europe.
Singapore:
β’ 92 RON gasoline: $142.57/b β$2.20
β’ Kerosene: $178.64/b β$2.33
β’ 10ppm gasoil: $179.79/b β$2.16
β’ 380 CST HSFO: $809.39/mt β$4.39
β’ 0.5%S marine fuel: $902.57/mt β$9.18
Chinese November product exports are expected to decline as refiners prioritize domestic sales and reduce runs.
That could tighten regional balances further.
ββββββββββββββββββ
πΎ UREA / GAS
Urea remains firm β but European gas is becoming the bigger story.
Northwest European granular urea production cost:
~$800/t
TTF front-month:
β¬95.65/MWh
Imported urea remains well below β¬600/t FCA in major European markets.
AGF Nitrogen is now considering shutdowns across several European plants, with ammonia units already operating near technical minimums.
Potentially affected capacity:
β₯5 million t
A deeper shutdown scenario could involve more than 7.3 million t, or around 40% of European ammonia capacity.
ββββββββββββββββββ
MARKET SIGNAL
π» Dated Brent collapsed $8.45/b
π» Atlantic crude differentials weakened further
β οΈ Inside-Hormuz VLCC freight remains roughly 2Γ Gulf of Oman levels
π» European products sold off sharply
πΊ Asian refined products strengthened
β οΈ Middle East refinery outages remain significant
πΊ European gas costs are putting renewed pressure on nitrogen production
Physical markets. Freight. Forward curves. Spreads. Daily intelligence.
π https://t.co/C4oTZCPeRd
#Oil #CrudeOil #Hormuz #Freight #VLCC #Diesel #JetFuel #Bunkers #Urea #Gas #Commodities
COMMODITYSCOPE | DAILY MARKET BRIEF β OCT 26, 2026
The market is splitting harder by geography.
Inside-Hormuz freight remains extreme.
Atlantic freight is softer.
European diesel and naphtha are tightening.
And gas is once again becoming a major fertilizer-market driver.
ββββββββββββββββββ
π’ CRUDE
Middle East physical pricing softened into month-end.
β’ Cash Dubai premium: +$6.69/b β$1.30
β’ Dated Brent: $127.97/b β$1.28
IOC secured December Basrah barrels at discounts to Dubai:
β’ Basrah Medium: β$2.25/b
β’ Basrah Heavy: β$7.20/b
In Europe, sour crude remains weak:
β’ CPC Blend: around β$8 to β$9/b vs Dated
β’ Forties: heard near +$3/b
β’ Johan Sverdrup: offered at +$1.15/b
βββοΏ½οΏ½ββββββββββββββ
π’ VLCC FREIGHT β TWO MARKETS
PG β China VLCC:
WS1125 | $233.89/mt
Gulf of Oman β Far East:
WS565 | $112.10/mt
Inside Persian Gulf:
WS1150β1300
Gulf of Oman:
WS540β575
That means inside-Gulf freight is still roughly double Gulf of Oman economics.
Confirmed Fujairah fixtures:
β’ Fujairah β East: WS560
β’ Fujairah β China: WS550
ββββββββββββββββββ
οΏ½οΏ½οΏ½ ATLANTIC FREIGHT
Atlantic markets are much softer than early October.
β’ WAF β UKC Suezmax: WS710 β72.5
β’ WAF β Far East VLCC: WS562.5
β’ Brazil β China VLCC: WS535
β’ Black Sea β Med Suezmax: WS1100
WAF Suezmax and VLCC rates are now far below the extreme levels seen earlier this month.
ββββββββββββββββββ
πΊπΈ AMERICAS CRUDE
Heavy sour crude remains under pressure.
β’ WCS Cushing: β$23/b vs WTI
β weakest on record
β’ WCS Hardisty: β$31.05/b
β lowest since October 2022
Oversupply of heavy crude into the US Gulf is intensifying competition between Canadian, Venezuelan and Colombian barrels.
ββββββββββββββββββ
β½ EUROPE DISTILLATES
European diesel strengthened again.
β’ 10ppm diesel CIF NWE: $1,553/mt β$28.25
β’ ICE LSGO Nov: $1,521.75/mt β$29.50
Jet also remains supported:
β’ Jet barge crack: $78.74/b
β’ Diesel barge crack: $73.60/b
β’ Jet premium: +$5.14/b
Switzerland has authorized a temporary release of up to 45,000 mΒ³ of diesel stocks amid supply disruptions.
ββββββββββββββββββ
π§ͺ NAPHTHA
Naphtha tightened sharply.
β’ CIF NWE: $982/mt β$8.50
β’ Nov/Dec backwardation: $44/mt
β’ Dec/Jan: $28.50/mt
β’ East-West spread: $76/mt
Prompt supply remains tight, while the wide East-West spread is drawing European barrels toward Asia.
ββββββββββββββββββ
πΈπ¬ ASIA PRODUCTS
Jet remains weak.
β’ Singapore jet cash diff: β$0.18/b
β’ Lowest in a month
Fresh South Korean offers and resumed Chinese exports continue to pressure the market.
Meanwhile, Singapore fuel oil remains firm:
β’ 0.5%S cash premium: +$28.67/mt
β’ Third consecutive daily rise
β’ Highest since Oct 5
ββββββββββββββββββ
β CLEAN FREIGHT
East-of-Suez MRs softened on ample tonnage.
West-of-Suez remained firmer:
β’ USGC β UKC: WS475 β20
β’ Cross-UKC: WS520 β20
β’ Baltic β UKC: WS530 β20
LR activity remains slow, while charterers continue using shuttle structures around Hormuz.
ββββββββββββββββββ
πΎ UREA / GAS
Urea strengthened again.
β’ Egypt granular FOB: $530β535/t
β’ Nigeria FOB: $475β485/t
But the bigger signal is gas:
TTF front month: β¬96.87/MWh
β2.5% d/d
Highest since December 2022
EU gas storage is only around 74% full versus a three-year average near 91%.
Estimated European granular urea break-even:
~$800/t
Gas is once again becoming the dominant support for European nitrogen pricing.
ββββββββββββββββββ
MARKET SIGNAL
π» Dubai softened into month-end
β οΈ Inside-Hormuz VLCC freight remains roughly 2Γ Gulf of Oman
π» Atlantic tanker freight remains far below early-October highs
π» Heavy sour crude differentials remain under pressure
πΊ European diesel and naphtha tightened
πΊ Singapore 0.5%S fuel oil premium strengthened
πΊ Urea firmed as TTF approached β¬97/MWh
Physical markets. Freight. Forward curves. Spreads. Daily intelligence.
π https://t.co/C4oTZCPeRd
#Oil #CrudeOil #Hormuz #Freight #VLCC #Diesel #Naphtha #Bunkers #Urea #Gas #Commodities
COMMODITYSCOPE | DAILY MARKET BRIEF β OCT 23, 2026
Brent jumped.
Middle East freight split widened again.
European distillates strengthened.
And jet inventories tightened on both sides of the market.
The physical market remains defined by one thing:
where the barrel loads β and how much risk it carries.
ββββββββββββββββββ
π’ CRUDE
Oil moved sharply higher.
β’ ICE Brent Dec: $116.72/b β$3.55
β’ Dated Brent: $126.69/b β$4.26
β’ WTI Dec: $103.27/b β$3.80
β’ Cash Dubai premium: +$7.99/b
The outright market strengthened, but Middle East physical structure remains heavily shaped by freight and security risk.
ββββββββββββββββββ
π’ VLCC FREIGHT β THE SPLIT GETS WIDER
PG β China VLCC:
WS1130
Inside Persian Gulf:
WS1100β1300
Gulf of Oman:
WS530β600
Recent Fujairah β East fixtures were heard around:
WS550β575
That is the key dislocation.
A cargo lifted outside Hormuz can now move at roughly half the Worldscale level of an inside-Gulf cargo.
ββββββββββββββββββ
β οΈ HORMUZ / WAR RISK
Transit activity recovered somewhat:
β’ Hormuz crossings: 23
β’ Bab al-Mandab: 27
But the risk premium remains elevated.
War-risk insurance for Hormuz passage is now:
10β12.5% of hull value
Recent confirmed tanker attacks continue to keep owners cautious.
Middle East oil exports have recovered above 19 mb/d, but still remain around 74% of pre-war levels.
ββββββββββββββββββ
π ATLANTIC FREIGHT
The Atlantic remains mixed.
β’ WAF β Far East VLCC: WS562.5 β52.5
β’ WAF β UKC Suezmax: WS782.5 β47.5
β’ USGC β China VLCC: $57.5m β$1m
β’ Brazil β China VLCC: WS530
VLCC economics continue correcting, while some Suezmax routes are re-tightening.
ββββββββββββββββββ
π CRUDE DIFFERENTIALS
Physical crude remains weak in several Atlantic basins.
β’ CPC Blend: ~β$8/b vs Dated
β’ Djeno: ~β$30/b
β’ Doba: β$20 to β$23/b
North Sea sour crude also remains under pressure as Saudi inflows into Europe rise.
The message is clear:
flat price is up β but many physical differentials are still weak.
ββββββββββββββββββ
β½ EUROPE PRODUCTS
European products strengthened sharply.
β’ NWE ULSD CIF: $1,524.75/mt β$45.75
β’ NWE Jet CIF: $1,650.75/mt β$33.50
β’ ICE LSGO: $1,492.25/mt β$45
β’ Med naphtha FOB: $880.50/mt β$41.75
Stocks remain tight:
β’ ARA jet: 461kt β6.1% w/w
β’ Diesel + gasoil: 1.774m mt
β’ Still 18% below year-ago
Jet stocks are less than half the level seen one year ago.
ββββββββββββββββββ
πΈπ¬ ASIA PRODUCTS
Singapore middle distillate stocks dropped sharply:
8.31m bbl β20% w/w
Gasoil structure tightened:
β’ Nov/Dec Singapore gasoil spread: $3.40/b
Jet remains softer:
β’ South Korean jet cargoes trading at discounts to MOPS
β’ Spot export competition increasing
Asia is showing a clear divergence:
gasoil tightness vs weaker jet pricing.
ββββββββββββββββββ
β CLEAN FREIGHT
Americas MR freight surged.
β’ USGC β Transatlantic: WS455 β60
β’ USGC β Brazil: WS510 β60
β’ Cross-UKC: WS500 β90
β’ Baltic β UKC: WS510 β90
East-of-Suez LR freight remains high:
β’ PG β Japan LR1: WS1070
β’ PG β Japan LR2: WS1100
But with ample LR tonnage building outside the Gulf, pressure may emerge if demand remains weak.
ββββββββββββββββββ
β΄ BUNKERS
Bunker prices strengthened again.
β’ Bunkerworld 0.5%S: $917/mt β$12
β’ BW380: $787/mt β$17
High freight and constrained regional flows continue to support bunker economics.
ββββββββββββββββββ
πΎ UREA
Urea is mixed.
β’ Middle East granular FOB: $435β445/t β$10
β’ Egypt FOB: $515β535/t
β’ Brazil CFR: $460β490/t
β’ NOLA: $434.5β438.5/st
Europe remains expensive to produce:
β’ TTF front-month: β¬93/MWh
β’ EU gas storage: ~74% full
β’ vs 91% three-year average
Gas remains a major support for European nitrogen economics.
ββββββββββββββββββ
MARKET SIGNAL
πΊ Brent and Dated Brent jumped sharply
β οΈ Inside-Hormuz VLCC freight remains roughly double Gulf of Oman levels
π» Atlantic VLCC freight continues correcting
π» Physical crude differentials remain weak despite higher flat price
πΊ European diesel and jet strengthened sharply
π» Singapore middle distillate stocks fell 20% w/w
πΊ Americas clean freight surged
βοΈ Urea remains mixed, with Europe supported by expensive gas
Physical markets. Freight. Forward curves. Spreads. Daily intelligence.
π https://t.co/C4oTZCPeRd
#Oil #CrudeOil #Hormuz #Freight #VLCC #Tankers #Diesel #JetFuel #Bunkers #Urea #Commodities
COMMODITYSCOPE | DAILY MARKET BRIEF β OCT 22, 2026
Middle East risk premium is back.
Dubai strengthened sharply.
Brent jumped.
Inside-Hormuz freight remains detached from the rest of the tanker market.
And crude differentials in the Atlantic are still being crushed by freight and war-risk costs.
ββββββββββββββββββ
π’ CRUDE | MIDDLE EAST
Dubai strengthened for a third consecutive session.
β’ Cash Dubai premium: +$8.09/b β$2.55
β’ Dec cash Dubai: $115.40/b
β’ Dated Brent: $128.11/b β$3.99
β’ ICE Brent Dec: $113.17/b β$4.35
Middle East exports are recovering:
19.2 mb/d 7-day average as of Oct 18
vs 15.2 mb/d on Oct 12
But flows are still only around 74% of pre-war levels.
ββββββββββββββββββ
β οΈ HORMUZ / SECURITY
The risk premium remains real.
Recent incidents include:
β’ Tanker struck southeast of Al-Faw, Iraq
β’ Aframax crude tanker hit west of Bukha, Oman and caught fire
Hormuz crossings:
17 vessels on Oct 21
Bab al-Mandab:
34 vessels
Freight remains dramatically different depending on whether cargo loads inside or outside the Strait.
ββββββββββββββββββ
π’ VLCC FREIGHT
PG β China VLCC:
WS1140
Inside-Persian Gulf:
WS1150β1300
Gulf of Oman:
WS550β675
A Fujairah β China fixture was confirmed at:
WS650
This is the defining tanker dislocation:
inside Hormuz remains expensive, while outside-Gulf VLCC freight keeps correcting.
ββββββββββββββββββ
π ATLANTIC CRUDE DIFFERENTIALS
Freight and war-risk costs continue to destroy FOB economics.
CPC Blend:
β’ CIF Augusta: β$6.855/b vs Dated Brent
β’ Lowest since assessment launch
β’ War-risk premium: $5/b
β’ Up 67% in three weeks
Latin America also weakened:
β’ Tupi: β$24.10/b
β’ Mero: β$22.50/b
Some delivered barrels were even discussed near parity to Dated Brent.
ββββββββββββοΏ½οΏ½οΏ½βββββ
π DIRTY FREIGHT
Atlantic freight was mixed.
β’ WAF β East VLCC: WS615 β13.5
β’ WAF β UKC Suezmax: WS735 β7.5
β’ Black Sea β Med Suezmax: WS1055 β45
β’ USGC β UKC Aframax: WS715 β70
Med Aframax also strengthened sharply on tight early-November tonnage.
ββββββββββββββββββ
β CLEAN FREIGHT
Inside-Hormuz clean freight remains extreme.
β’ PG β Japan LR1: WS1070
β’ PG β Japan LR2: WS1100
Premium versus Gulf of Oman:
β’ LR1: +WS570
β’ LR2: +WS615
Charterers increasingly use shuttle tankers to Oman or West Coast India for STS transfers instead of direct voyages through Hormuz.
Outside the Gulf, clean freight also strengthened:
β’ Cross-UKC: WS410 β85
β’ Baltic β UKC: WS420 β85
ββββββββββββββββββ
β½ EUROPE PRODUCTS
European products broadly strengthened.
Jet remains structurally tight.
Europe jet/kero imports:
~1.2m mt Oct 1β22
vs
2.0m mt in all September
Spain also announced a release of around 4.4m bbl of diesel and jet from strategic reserves, although barrels will not reach the market before mid-December.
Naphtha strengthened:
β’ CIF NWE: $933.50/mt β$24
β’ East-West spread: $73.50/mt β$6.50
ββββββββββββββββββ
πΈπ¬ ASIA PRODUCTS
Jet finally stabilized after five straight sessions of weakness.
β’ Singapore jet/kero diff: +$0.08/b
β’ Gasoil cash diff: +$1.04/b
β’ Nov/Dec gasoil spread: $3.00/b
Fuel oil tightened again:
β’ 380 CST Nov/Dec backwardation: $53.75/mt
β’ 0.5%S cash premium: +$25.63/mt
November LSFO arbitrage arrivals into Singapore are expected to fall:
30β40% vs October
because freight remains prohibitively high.
ββββββββββββββββββ
πΎ UREA
International urea is stable to slightly softer.
β’ Egypt FOB: $515β535/t
β’ Nigeria FOB: $465β475/t
β’ Brazil CFR: $470β485/t
β’ NOLA: ~$430/st
China exported:
2.45m t in September
β 78% y/y
India absorbed roughly 1.6m t.
The next Indian tender may emerge as early as next week.
ββββββββββββββββββ
MARKET SIGNAL
πΊ Dubai premium surged to +$8.09/b
πΊ Brent strengthened sharply
β οΈ Hormuz remains the dominant freight distortion
π» Atlantic crude differentials remain under severe pressure
πΊ Clean LR freight inside the Gulf remains extreme
πΊ European jet and naphtha remain tight
π» Singapore LSFO arrivals are expected to fall sharply in November
βοΈ Urea is stable after the recent rebound
Physical markets. Freight. Forward curves. Spreads. Daily intelligence.
π https://t.co/C4oTZCPeRd
#Oil #CrudeOil #Hormuz #Freight #VLCC #Tankers #Diesel #JetFuel #Bunkers #Urea #Commodities
COMMODITYSCOPE | DAILY MARKET BRIEF β OCT 21, 2026
Hormuz is still pricing the market.
VLCC freight outside the Gulf is falling fast.
Inside-Hormuz freight remains structurally expensive.
Jet is weakening in Asia, while European product balances remain tight.
The market is fragmenting by geography.
ββββββββββββββββββ
π’ CRUDE
Middle East physical pricing strengthened for a second session.
β’ Dated Brent: $119.79/b β$1.66
β’ Dubai cash/futures premium: +$5.54/b β$1.33
β’ Dec cash BrentβDubai: β$0.86/b
But the deeper signal is in the spread:
Dec BrentβDubai swap-swap: β$2.38/b
That is the weakest level since 2001.
Middle East barrels remain expensive relative to Atlantic crude once freight is included.
ββββββββββββββββββ
π’ VLCC FREIGHT β CORRECTION CONTINUES
Outside Hormuz, freight is falling quickly.
β’ Gulf of Oman β Far East: $231.48/mt
β seventh consecutive decline
β’ WAF β East VLCC: WS601.5 β24
β’ Brazil β China VLCC: WS550 β50
β’ USGC β China VLCC: $59.5m β$3m
β’ WAF β UKC Suezmax: WS742.5 β90
The broader dirty market is clearly correcting.
Global DTI non-eco:
$821,119/day β$26,722
ββββββββββββββββββ
β οΈ HORMUZ β STILL A DIFFERENT MARKET
Inside the Persian Gulf:
PG β China VLCC: WS1175
Inside-Gulf indications:
~WS1200
Gulf of Oman:
WS630β700
The spread remains enormous.
And on Oct 20:
0 VLCCs were detected transiting Hormuz
Security remains the reason the inside-Gulf market refuses to normalize with the rest of the tanker complex.
ββββββββββββββββββ
βοΈ JET β ASIA WEAKENS
Singapore jet deteriorated sharply.
β’ Jet cash differential: β$0.04/b vs MOPS
β’ Previous: +$0.64/b
β’ Daily move: β$0.68/b
Jet regrade versus 10ppm gasoil:
β$0.78/b
The Asian jet market has flipped from premium to discount in just one session.
ββββββββββββββββββ
β½ GASOIL / DIESEL
Singapore gasoil held up better:
β’ 10ppm gasoil cash diff: +$1.15/b
β’ Up $0.32/b d/d
Europe remains structurally tight despite weaker flat prices.
β’ NWE ULSD FOB: $1,451.25/mt β$16.75
β’ NWE jet FOB: $1,564.50/mt β$33.50
β’ Jet physical crack: $85.36/b
India β Europe diesel/gasoil arrivals are expected around:
1.3m mt in October
vs just 573kt in September.
ββββββββββββββββββ
πΊπΈ US INVENTORIES
US crude stocks fell again.
β’ Commercial crude: 412.5m bbl β3.06m
β’ Cushing: 27.6m bbl β987k
β’ Refinery runs: 16.6 mb/d
β’ Crude exports: 4.50 mb/d
The draw continues even with refinery runs holding high.
ββββββββββββββββββ
β΄ FUEL OIL
Singapore HSFO weakened modestly:
β’ 380 CST cash diff: +$46.33/mt
β’ Down $3/mt d/d
At the same time, European fuel oil continues moving east and west despite expensive freight.
October Europe loadings toward Asia/Americas:
322,654 mt
ββββββββββββββββββ
β CLEAN FREIGHT
MRs strengthened in the West.
β’ USGC β UKC: WS375 β10
β’ Cross-Med: WS510 β45
β’ Black Sea β Med: WS540 β45
Inside-Hormuz LR freight remains elevated, while outside-region rates continue to soften.
Again: two different markets.
ββββββββββββββββββ
πΎ UREA
Urea remains firm.
β’ Egypt granular FOB: $535/t
β’ China prilled FOB: $347β352/t
β’ Brazil CFR: $470β485/t
China exported 2.45m t of urea in September, up 78% y/y.
India absorbed roughly 1.6m t of that volume.
Meanwhile, European production economics continue to worsen as gas rises:
β’ TTF month-ahead: $28.60/MMBtu
β’ NW Europe urea production cost: $678.38/t FOB
ββββββββββββββββββ
MARKET SIGNAL
πΊ Dubai physical premium strengthened for a second day
π» Atlantic and Gulf of Oman VLCC freight continues correcting
β οΈ Inside-Hormuz freight remains structurally disconnected
π» Asian jet structure deteriorated sharply
πΊ European diesel supply remains tight despite weaker flat prices
π» US crude stocks fell another 3.06m bbl
πΊ Urea remains firm as European production costs rise
Physical markets. Freight. Forward curves. Spreads. Daily intelligence.
π https://t.co/C4oTZCPeRd
#Oil #CrudeOil #Hormuz #Freight #VLCC #Tankers #Diesel #JetFuel #Bunkers #Urea #Commodities
COMMODITYSCOPE | DAILY MARKET BRIEF β OCT 20, 2026
Hormuz just sent another warning.
No VLCC crossed the Strait on Oct 19 β the first such day since Aug 2.
At the same time, Atlantic tanker freight is correcting fast, Dubai finally bounced after seven sessions of weakness, and European gasoline sold off sharply.
ββββββββββββββββββ
β οΈ HORMUZ / MIDDLE EAST
Strait of Hormuz traffic fell to:
19 vessels
And for the first time since Aug 2:
0 VLCC transits
Security risk remains elevated after another series of vessel attacks around the Gulf.
Middle East crude exports are also still running below September levels.
That keeps a substantial risk premium embedded in inside-Gulf freight.
ββββββββββββββββββ
π’ CRUDE
Dubai finally broke its seven-session decline.
β’ Cash Dubai vs futures: +$4.21/b β$0.38
β’ Dated Brent: $118.13/b β$0.52
β’ Brent Dec: $108.79/b β$0.76
β’ WTI Nov: $101.79/b β$1.87
The BrentβDubai relationship continues to normalize, while physical Middle East pricing remains dominated by freight.
ββββββββββββββββββ
οΏ½οΏ½οΏ½ VLCC FREIGHT β TWO DIFFERENT MARKETS
Inside the Persian Gulf:
PG β China VLCC: WS1200
Inside-Gulf indications:
WS1200β1265
Gulf of Oman:
WS700β730
That gap is now enormous.
A barrel loading inside Hormuz is effectively trading in a different freight market from one lifted outside the Strait.
ββββββββββββββββββ
π ATLANTIC FREIGHT β SHARP CORRECTION
Outside the Gulf, freight is falling fast.
β’ WAF β East VLCC: WS625 β74.5
β’ WAF β UKC Suezmax: WS832.5 β57.5
β’ Brazil β China VLCC: WS600 β15
β’ USGC β China VLCC: $62.5m β$2.5m
β’ USGC β UKC VLCC: $31m β$1.5m
This is now a clear regional split:
Hormuz premium stays high.
Atlantic freight keeps correcting.
ββββββββββββββββββ
π CRUDE DIFFERENTIALS
Atlantic crude continues to weaken.
β’ CPC Blend: β$2.55/b vs Dated
vs +$0.15/b previously
β’ Castilla: β$30.20/b
β weakest on record
November Castilla barrels were even heard as weak as:
β$40/b
North Sea fundamentals are also turning bearish, with late-November supply lengthening and Forties cargoes struggling to clear.
ββββββββββββββββββ
β½ EUROPE PRODUCTS
Gasoline took the biggest hit.
β’ NWE gasoline 10ppm: $1,205.50/mt β$56.50
β’ Eurobob: $1,123/mt β$56.50
β’ E10: $1,057.25/mt β$64.25
Diesel softened more modestly:
β’ ULSD FOB NWE: $1,468/mt β$8
Jet stayed comparatively firm:
β’ NWE Jet CIF: $1,627/mt
β’ FARAG jet barge: $1,647.25/mt β$12
The product complex is becoming increasingly fragmented.
ββββββββββββββββββ
πΈπ¬ ASIA PRODUCTS
Asian middle distillates strengthened.
β’ Singapore gasoil Nov/Dec spread: $3.30/b
β’ Singapore 10ppm gasoil: $178.34/b β$8.55
β’ Singapore kerosene: $177.56/b β$7.40
But jet cash structure weakened:
β’ FOB Singapore jet diff: +$0.64/b
β’ Down 41% d/d
Inside-Gulf jet economics remain heavily distorted by Hormuz risk.
ββββββββββββββββββ
β΄ FUEL OIL / BUNKERS
Singapore marine fuel strengthened while HSFO softened.
β’ 0.5%S Marine Fuel Singapore: $869.18/mt β$17.81
β’ 0.5%S Fujairah: $921.93/mt β$16.03
β’ HSFO 380 Singapore: $792.61/mt β$10.31
The Europe-to-East VLSFO arbitrage is effectively closed under current tanker costs.
ββββββββββββββββββ
MARKET SIGNAL
β οΈ Hormuz recorded zero VLCC transits
πΊ Dubai rebounded after seven straight declines
π» Atlantic VLCC and Suezmax freight corrected sharply
π» Atlantic crude differentials weakened further
π» European gasoline sold off hard
πΊ Asian gasoil strengthened
β Inside-Gulf freight remains structurally disconnected from Gulf of Oman economics
Physical markets. Freight. Forward curves. Spreads. Daily intelligence.
π https://t.co/C4oTZCPeRd
#Oil #CrudeOil #Hormuz #Freight #VLCC #Tankers #Diesel #Gasoline #JetFuel #Bunkers #Commodities
COMMODITYSCOPE | DAILY MARKET BRIEF β OCT 19, 2026
Freight is easing outside the Gulf.
Dubai differentials keep weakening.
European products are firmer.
China is drawing crude stocks again.
The physical market is starting to rebalance β but Hormuz still carries a heavy premium.
ββββββββββββββββββ
π’ MIDDLE EAST CRUDE
Dubai weakened for a seventh consecutive session.
β’ Cash Dubai differential: +$3.83/b β$1.00
β’ Dec BrentβDubai: +$0.18/b β$1.01
β’ Middle East crude exports: 11.9 mb/d
vs 15.0 mb/d in September
BrentβDubai has now moved back above zero for the first time since August territory.
At the same time, Basrah remains aggressively discounted on FOB basis, while delivered-China economics still reflect high freight.
ββββββββββββββββββ
β οΈ HORMUZ
Security risk remains embedded in freight.
Four vessel attacks were reported between Oct 16β18.
Hormuz transits:
β’ Oct 16: 25
β’ Oct 17: 15
β’ Oct 18: 23
PG β China VLCC remains:
WS1200 | $249.48/mt
Inside Persian Gulf:
WS1200β1300
Gulf of Oman:
WS750β770
The premium for loading inside the Gulf remains extreme.
ββββββββββββββββββ
π’ ATLANTIC FREIGHT β CORRECTION CONTINUES
Outside the Gulf, tanker rates are moving lower.
β’ WAF β East VLCC: WS700 β25
β’ Brazil β China VLCC: WS615 β70
β’ USGC β UKC VLCC: $32.5m β$3.5m
β’ Vancouver β China: $14.5m β$1m
USGC HSFO Aframax freight also fell sharply to:
$136.57/mt
That is down $61.97/mt w/w.
The freight correction is now broadening across the Atlantic.
ββββββββββββββββββ
β CLEAN FREIGHT
LR2 appears to have peaked.
Charterers are increasingly shifting cargoes into LR1s and MRs as economics improve.
Meanwhile, MR demand remains firm:
β’ Cross-Med 30kt: WS487.5 β37.5
β’ Black Sea β Med: WS517.5 β37.5
β’ UKC β USAC: WS185 β10
East Asia MR tonnage remains tight into early November.
ββββββββββββββββββ
β½ EUROPE PRODUCTS
European products strengthened:
β’ ULSD 10ppm FOB NWE: $1,476/mt β$38.25
β’ Jet FOB NWE: $1,599/mt β$31.50
β’ EBOB: $1,179.50/mt β$25.25
β’ Naphtha: $893/mt β$10.50
ARA diesel/gasoil stocks:
1.664m mt
Still 21% below year-ago.
Jet remains tight despite some easing in premiums.
ββββββββββββββββββ
π¨π³ CHINA
Chinaβs crude system showed a notable shift.
September crude throughput:
14.04 mb/d
β a six-month high.
Crude stocks fell to:
1.252bn bbl
from 1.307bn bbl in August.
That implies a visible stock draw as domestic runs strengthened.
Imports also rose to a five-month high of 9.06 mb/d.
ββββββββββββββββββ
β΄ BUNKERS / FUEL OIL
Singapore Hi-5 rebounded from an eight-month low:
$48.73/mt
vs $39.76/mt previously.
But high freight, insurance costs and Gulf security risk continue to constrain HSFO arbitrage.
Fujairah bunker sales improved m/m, yet remain sharply below year-ago levels.
ββββββββββββββββββ
π CRUDE DIFFERENTIALS
Atlantic differentials remain under heavy pressure.
β’ Azeri Light: +$7.75/b
vs as high as +$18/b on Oct 12
β’ Djeno: ~β$37/b vs Dated Brent
β’ CPC Blend offers near parity
The correction in crude differentials is now as important as the flat-price move itself.
ββββββββββββββββββ
MARKET SIGNAL
π» Dubai weakened for a seventh straight session
πΊ BrentβDubai flipped back above zero
β οΈ Hormuz still carries a massive freight premium
π» Atlantic VLCC and Aframax freight continues to correct
πΊ European diesel and jet prices strengthened
πΊ China refinery throughput rose while crude stocks fell
π» Atlantic crude differentials remain under pressure
Physical markets. Freight. Forward curves. Spreads. Daily intelligence.
π https://t.co/C4oTZCPeRd
#Oil #CrudeOil #Freight #Tankers #VLCC #Diesel #JetFuel #Bunkers #China #Commodities
COMMODITYSCOPE | DAILY MARKET BRIEF β OCT 16, 2026
Crude weakened hard.
Hormuz freight stayed extreme.
Diesel balances remain tight.
Urea pushed to new highs.
The market is still being driven by physical dislocation more than headline flat price.
ββββββββββββββββββ
π’ CRUDE
Middle East physical strength continues to fade.
β’ Dubai cash/futures premium: +$4.83/b β$1.56
β’ Sixth consecutive daily decline
β’ Lowest in two months
Meanwhile:
β’ Dated Brent: $116.59/b β$9.39
β’ Brent Dec: $105.77/b β$0.66
β’ Middle East crude exports: 11.9 mb/d in Oct MTD
vs 15.0 mb/d in September
The BrentβDubai spread also moved sharply:
β$0.83/b
β$2.17 d/d
That is the strongest level since late August and close to flipping positive again.
ββββββββββββββββββ
π’ VLCC FREIGHT
Hormuz remains the key distortion.
PG β China VLCC:
WS1200 | $249.48/mt
Inside Persian Gulf indications:
WS1200β1400
Gulf of Oman:
WS750β800
A confirmed PG β East fixture printed at:
WS1423
The freight premium for loading inside the Gulf remains enormous.
ββββββββββββββββββ
π ATLANTIC FREIGHT
Rates are correcting elsewhere:
β’ USGC β China VLCC: $69.5m β$1.5m
β’ USGC β UKC Aframax: $163.88/mt β$18.91
β’ WAF β UKC Suezmax: WS902.5 β17.5
β’ WAF β East VLCC: WS725
Atlantic freight is easing faster than Gulf freight β widening the regional dislocation.
ββββββββββββββββββ
β CLEAN FREIGHT
East-of-Suez LR2 freight is finally starting to soften.
β’ AG β Japan LR2: WS1025
β’ AG β Japan LR1: WS985
β’ Gulf of Oman β Japan LR1: WS600
Charterers are increasingly downsizing LR cargoes into cheaper LR1/MR structures.
That could cap the extreme LR2 market seen over the past week.
ββββββββββββββββββ
β½ DIESEL / JET
European distillate inventories remain structurally tight.
β’ ARA diesel + gasoil stocks: 1.664m mt
β’ 21% below year-ago
β’ ULSD CIF NWE diff: +$44.50/mt
β’ ULSD ARA crack: $85.11/b
Jet:
β’ CIF NWE: $1,596.50/mt
β’ Jet premium over LSGO: $184.25/mt
β’ ARA jet stocks: 494kt
Stocks are rising slightly β but still critically low.
Switzerland has even authorised temporary releases of jet reserves to protect Zurich Airport supply.
ββββββββββββββββββ
π·πΊ RUSSIA / DIESEL
Russian diesel exports remain weak despite the partial lifting of restrictions.
β’ Week to Oct 8: 69kt
β’ Second-lowest weekly level on record
Exports rebounded to 152kt during Oct 9β16, but remain far below normal levels.
The IEA is also preparing to accelerate strategic releases, including more than 20m bbl of diesel.
ββββββββββββββββββ
β΄ FUEL OIL
Singapore HSFO remains firm.
β’ Nov 380 CST crack: $13.99/b
β’ Fifth consecutive daily rise
β’ Heavy distillate stocks: 18.04m bbl β3.4% w/w
At the same time, elevated tanker freight continues to block arbitrage flows.
ββββββββββββββββββ
πΎ UREA β NEW HIGH
The rally continues.
Egypt:
$535/t FOB
That is the highest reported Egyptian level this week.
Abu Qir business climbed another $8/t, while producers have now sold at least 85kt this week around:
$500β535/t FOB
Indiaβs IPL tender secured only:
410kt of 1.7m t sought
That failed tender outcome continues to support producer pricing.
TTF also climbed to:
β¬88.60/MWh
β the highest since the USβIran war began.
ββββββββββββββββββ
MARKET SIGNAL
π» Dubai physical premium fell for a sixth straight session
π» Dated Brent dropped almost $9.40/b
πΊ Inside-Hormuz VLCC freight remains extreme
π» Atlantic tanker rates are correcting faster than Gulf freight
β LR2 freight is finally showing signs of easing
πΊ European diesel remains structurally tight
πΊ Urea extended its rally to $535/t FOB Egypt
Physical markets. Freight. Forward curves. Spreads. Daily intelligence.
π https://t.co/C4oTZCPeRd
#Oil #CrudeOil #Freight #Tankers #VLCC #Diesel #JetFuel #Bunkers #Urea #Commodities
COMMODITYSCOPE | DAILY MARKET BRIEF β OCT 15, 2026
Hormuz traffic collapsed.
Freight is still extreme.
Urea is rebounding hard.
The physical market remains defined by logistics, not just flat price.
ββββββββββββββββββ
β οΈ HORMUZ / SHIPPING
Identified Strait of Hormuz transits fell to just 12 vessels on Oct 14 β the lowest since Aug 16.
That compares with 27 ships the previous day.
The IMO recorded 11 vessel attacks between Oct 8β14, while refined-product flows through the Strait remain materially below pre-war levels.
Week 2 October:
β’ Crude + condensate exports: 11.97 mb/d
β’ Refined products: 2.52 mb/d
The security premium remains embedded across tanker markets.
ββββββββββββββββββ
π’ CRUDE
Middle East physical strength continues to fade.
β’ Dubai cash/futures premium: +$6.385/b β$0.97
β’ Fifth consecutive daily decline
β’ Fresh two-month low
VLCC freight is easing from record highs, but remains historically expensive:
π’ Gulf of Oman β Far East: $155.74/mt
vs $167.65/mt record on Oct 12
π’ PG β China VLCC: WS1170
Inside Persian Gulf indications:
WS1200β1300
Gulf of Oman:
WS780β790
Charterers continue to prefer Oman/WCI shuttle structures to avoid the full Hormuz freight penalty.
ββββββββββββββββββ
π’ DIRTY FREIGHT
Rates are correcting across several routes:
β’ WAF β UKC Suezmax: WS920 β55
β’ WAF β East VLCC: WS712.5
β’ Black Sea β Med Suezmax: WS1107.5
β’ USGC β UKC Aframax: $182.79/mt β$11.55
Atlantic crude differentials are moving with them.
Azeri Light fell more than $5/b d/d, while WCS Hardisty widened to a $26.45/b discount to WTI CMA β weakest since Jan 2023.
ββββββββββββββββββ
πΊπΈ US CRUDE
US inventories delivered one of the strongest fundamental signals of the day.
β’ Commercial crude stocks: 415.6m bbl β8.6m
β’ Refinery runs: 16.6 mb/d β135k
β’ Crude exports: 4.50 mb/d
β’ Cushing: 21.0m bbl β1.9m
Mars strengthened sharply:
+$4.00/b vs WTI β$2.75
ββββββββββββββββββ
β CLEAN FREIGHT
LR freight remains near record territory:
π’ PG β Japan LR1: WS1000
π’ PG β Japan LR2: WS1050
But the supply picture is starting to loosen.
Around 100 LR2s have reportedly switched into dirty service this year, yet newbuild deliveries are now offsetting part of that tightening.
If more LR tonnage returns, record freight may finally start to come under pressure.
ββββββββββββββββββ
β½ DIESEL / JET
European jet remains tight.
β’ ARA jet stocks: 479kt
β’ β55% y/y
β’ Jet still commands a premium over diesel
Diesel weakened despite renewed RussiaβUkraine refinery risk.
Meanwhile, Chinaβs refined-product exports surged to a 45-month high in September:
7.16m mt
β19.2% m/m
β39.3% y/y
ββββββββββββββββββ
β΄ MARINE FUELS
Singapore fuel-oil structure moved sharply lower.
0.5%S premium over 380 CST HSFO:
$46.10/mt
Previous session:
$73.76/mt
That is a $27.66/mt collapse in one day.
Singapore September bunker sales also slipped to a three-month low at 4.726m mt.
ββββββββββββββββββ
πΎ UREA β RALLY EXTENDS
Urea continues to recover aggressively after Indiaβs failed attempt to reset prices lower.
β’ Egypt granular FOB: $520β527/t
β’ Nigeria FOB: $465β475/t
β’ Brazil CFR: moving into the $480s/t
β’ NOLA Jan: $462β465/st
Egypt moved from $480/t to $527/t within days.
IPL secured only 410kt of the 1.7m t it sought.
Chinese producers refused low netbacks β and the market has moved back up.
ββββββββββββββββββ
MARKET SIGNAL
π» Hormuz traffic fell to the lowest level since August
π» Dubai physical premium weakened for a fifth straight day
π» Dirty freight is correcting β but remains extreme
πΊ US crude stocks fell sharply
β Clean LR freight remains near record highs
π» Singapore LSFO/HSFO spread collapsed
πΊ Urea rally is accelerating
Physical markets. Freight. Forward curves. Spreads. Daily intelligence.
π https://t.co/C4oTZCPeRd
#Oil #CrudeOil #Hormuz #Freight #Tankers #VLCC #Diesel #JetFuel #Bunkers #Urea #Commodities
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COMMODITYSCOPE | DAILY MARKET BRIEF β OCT 14, 2026
The market is splitting in two.
Crude differentials are weakening under record freight costs β while diesel, jet and urea remain structurally tight.
And Hormuz is still charging a premium.
ββββββββββββββββββ
π’ CRUDE | MIDDLE EAST
UAE producers sold close to 20 million bbl in the latest tender, but physical crude pricing continues to soften.
β’ Dubai cash/futures premium: $7.35/b β fresh 2-month low
β’ KPC and regional OSPs remain under pressure
β’ West-to-East arbitrage remains constrained by freight
The freight penalty is stark:
PG β China VLCC: WS1195
Inside Persian Gulf indications:
WS1250β1350
Gulf of Oman:
WS800β850
The same crude can face a radically different shipping bill depending on which side of Hormuz it loads.
ββββββββββββββββββ
π’ DIRTY FREIGHT
Some routes are correcting β others remain extreme.
β’ WAF β East VLCC: WS715 β40
β’ Brazil β East VLCC: WS700
β’ Black Sea β Med Suezmax: WS1112.5 β42.5
β’ PG β China VLCC: WS1195
The IEA says Gulf crude exports rebounded to 13.9 mb/d in September, while Hormuz flows recovered to 10.9 mb/d.
More oil is moving.
But moving it remains extraordinarily expensive.
ββββββββββββββββββ
β CLEAN FREIGHT
LR2 remains the standout.
At least 100 LR2s are estimated to have switched into dirty service this year, tightening clean tanker supply.
β’ AG β Japan LR1: WS1000
β’ AG β Japan LR2: WS1050
β’ Med β Japan 60kt: $9m β$1m
LR2 is now outperforming LR1 β an unusual inversion driven by vessel scarcity.
Meanwhile, Americas MR tonnage is tightening sharply, with more than 15 vessels reportedly placed on subjects since the start of the week.
ββββββββββββββββββ
β½ DIESEL / JET
Asia strengthened again.
β’ Singapore Nov/Dec gasoil spread: $4.05/b
vs $3.28/b previous session
β’ Jet/kero crack vs Dubai: $66/b
β$5.42/b d/d
Europe remains tight despite easing cracks:
β’ ARA diesel crack: $67.46/b
β’ ULSD CIF NWE: $1,491.25/mt
β’ European diesel stocks remain structurally low
The bigger picture is more important:
Middle East + Russia gasoil exports fell more than 60% y/y in September.
Their combined net exports dropped by roughly 1.3 mb/d.
US and China exports increased β but not enough to fill the gap.
ββββββββββββββββββ
π GLOBAL OIL DEMAND
The IEA delivered one of the strongest macro signals of the day.
Global oil demand is projected to decline by an average 2.6 mb/d in 2026.
β’ Q4 2026 demand: β2.5 mb/d y/y
β’ Global refinery runs: 81.3 mb/d in October
β’ 2027 demand forecast cut to 104.4 mb/d
Yet diesel remains tight.
That is the contradiction defining the current market:
weakening aggregate demand, but severe dislocation in specific products and logistics.
ββββββββββββββββββ
πΎ UREA β RALLY ACCELERATES
Urea moved sharply higher.
β’ Egypt granular FOB: $500β515/t
β’ Algeria Sorfert: $530/t FOB
β’ NOLA: $445β455/st
β’ Brazil CFR: $465β480/t
Egyptian values jumped as much as $35/t.
Chinese producer resistance, tighter North African availability and stronger European demand are now reversing the weakness seen after Indiaβs tender.
ββββββββββοΏ½οΏ½βββββββ
MARKET SIGNAL
π» Dubai physical premium fell to a 2-month low
πΊ Hormuz continues to impose a huge freight premium
πΊ LR2 clean freight remains historically strong
πΊ Asian gasoil and jet structures tightened again
β οΈ Global oil demand is weakening, but diesel supply remains structurally tight
πΊ Urea has decisively turned higher
Physical markets. Freight. Forward curves. Spreads. Daily intelligence.
π https://t.co/C4oTZCPeRd
#Oil #CrudeOil #Diesel #JetFuel #Freight #Tankers #VLCC #Shipping #Urea #Commodities
COMMODITYSCOPE | DAILY MARKET BRIEF β OCT 13, 2026
Freight is still setting the price of physical oil.
Middle East crude differentials weakened, Atlantic barrels remain under pressure, and tanker economics continue to distort normal trade flows.
CRUDE
Middle East sour differentials slipped to two-month lows as new producer offers met weak spot demand.
β’ Dated Brent: $130.52/b β$3.73
β’ Dubai Dec: $108.75/b β$0.95
β’ Kuwait Export Crude Nov OSP: β$6.75/b vs Oman/Dubai
β’ KPC cut Asia OSPs by roughly $4/b
QatarEnergy also returned with spot offers for Al-Shaheen, Qatar Marine and Qatar Land.
The core issue remains freight.
PG β China VLCC:
WS1210
Inside Persian Gulf indications:
WS1200β1325
Gulf of Oman:
WS810β890
That spread continues to penalize barrels loading inside Hormuz.
DIRTY FREIGHT
π’ Gulf of Oman β Far East VLCC: $163.68/mt
π’ Black Sea β Med Suezmax: WS1070
π’ WAF β East VLCC: WS755
π’ USGC β UKC Aframax: $199.60/mt
The Platts VLCC index stands at approximately:
$1.169 million/day
That is +462% since the start of the Middle East war.
J.P. Morgan estimates:
β’ MEG β China VLCC freight: ~$35/bbl
β’ USGC β China: ~$41/bbl
Versus roughly $3/bbl and $6/bbl respectively earlier in 2026.
CLEAN FREIGHT
East-of-Suez LR markets remain extremely firm.
π’ PG β Japan LR1: WS980
π’ PG β Japan LR2: WS1015
π’ USGC β UKC MR: WS375 β90
π’ Cross-Med MR: WS390 β30
Charterers are increasingly using shuttle structures:
Persian Gulf β Oman / WCI β STS transfer
The reason is simple β direct Hormuz exposure has become too expensive.
Several LR2s are also considering switching into dirty service, further tightening clean tonnage.
REFINED PRODUCTS
Europe strengthened again:
β’ ICE LSGO: $1,450.50/mt β$39.75
β’ 0.1% CIF NWE gasoil: $1,426.50/mt β$38.50
β’ Jet CIF NWE: $1,666/mt β$38.50
But inventories remain structurally tight:
β’ ARA middle distillates: 2.255m mt
β’ 20% below 5-year average
β’ 26% below levels at the start of the war
Rhine logistics remain constrained, with Kaub around 20 cm and expected to fall further.
ASIA PRODUCTS
Asian ULSD softened after Russia partially relaxed its diesel export restrictions.
β’ Singapore 380 CST Oct/Nov backwardation: $52.50/mt
β’ Hi-5 spread: $62.58/mt
China has resumed jet exports, but logistics remain the bottleneck.
The market problem is no longer just cargo availability.
It is vessel availability.
UREA β SENTIMENT TURNING
Urea is starting to rebound.
Chinese producers rejected the implied Indian tender netbacks of $320β325/t FOB.
Current indications:
β’ China prilled FOB: $340β350/t
β’ Egypt granular FOB: $480/t
β’ Middle East FOB: $435β445/t
β’ Brazil CFR: $465β475/t
IPL counterbids remain:
β’ East Coast: $352.10/t CFR
β’ West Coast: $356.25/t CFR
Producer resistance is now clearly visible.
MARKET SIGNAL
πΊ Tanker freight remains the dominant physical-market variable
πΊ Inside-Hormuz loading carries an extreme freight penalty
πΊ Clean LR freight remains historically high
πΊ European distillate prices recovered while inventories stay tight
πΊ Urea sentiment is turning higher as Chinese producers resist low netbacks
π» Middle East crude differentials continue to weaken under freight pressure
Physical markets. Freight. Forward curves. Spreads. Daily intelligence.
π https://t.co/C4oTZCPeRd
#Oil #CrudeOil #Freight #Tankers #VLCC #Diesel #Shipping #Hormuz #Urea #Commodities
COMMODITYSCOPE | DAILY MARKET BRIEF β OCT 12, 2026
Hormuz is again the center of gravity.
Ship traffic is falling, attacks are escalating, and freight inside the Persian Gulf is trading at a massive premium to Gulf of Oman loadings.
At the same time, clean LR2 freight has pushed to fresh records.
CRUDE / MIDDLE EAST
Strait of Hormuz traffic fell to just 17 ships on Oct 11, a two-week low.
At least four vessel attacks were reported near or inside Hormuz since Oct 10, while Saudi energy infrastructure also came under attack.
Saudi Arabia is increasing use of the East-West pipeline and plans to add another 1.2 mb/d of capacity by temporarily converting a gas pipeline for crude transportation.
Middle East pricing softened slightly:
β’ Cash Dubai premium: +$9.78/b β$0.16
β’ Qatar Land Nov OSP: β$7.50/b vs Dubai
β’ Qatar Marine Nov OSP: β$8.00/b
β’ Both Qatar OSPs cut $3/b m/m
DIRTY FREIGHT
The freight premium for loading inside the Persian Gulf remains extraordinary.
π’ PG β China VLCC 270kt: WS1230
Inside-PG indications:
WS1310β1350
Gulf of Oman:
WS750β890
Elsewhere:
π’ Black Sea β Med Suezmax: WS1112.5 β107.5
π’ WAF β UKC Suezmax: WS985
π’ WAF β East VLCC: WS747.5 β45
π’ Ceyhan β Med Aframax: WS790 β10
Black Sea Suezmax is now one of the strongest moves on the board.
CLEAN FREIGHT β NEW RECORD
LR2 freight East of Suez reached another all-time high.
π’ PG β Japan LR1: WS980
π’ PG β Japan LR2: WS1015
For the first time in the current move, LR2s are trading at a premium to LR1s in Worldscale terms.
Global LR2 weighted TCE:
$294,295/day
Ras Tanura β Yokohama LR2:
$284,119/day
A Sohar β UKC diesel fixture was heard around $16.5 million β a historic high.
The structural driver remains the same: LR2 supply is tightening as vessels switch into the dirty segment.
DIESEL / PRODUCTS
Europe softened on diesel flat price:
β’ ULSD 10ppm CIF NWE: $1,450/mt β$30.50
β’ Jet CIF NWE: $1,627.50/mt β$1.00
β’ ARA diesel/gasoil stocks: 1.776m mt β2.2% w/w
β’ ARA jet stocks: 479kt β9.6% w/w
Asia also eased:
β’ Singapore Nov/Dec gasoil spread: $3.45/b
β’ FOB Singapore 10ppm gasoil diff: +$2.13/b β$0.61
Chinaβs latest clean-product export quota came in at only ~4.5m mt, versus roughly 8m mt expected before the holiday.
UREA
Indiaβs IPL tender remains the key price anchor.
β’ East Coast counterbid: $352.10/t CFR
β’ West Coast: $356.25/t CFR
But Chinese producers continue to resist the implied $320β325/t FOB netback.
Producer indications are closer to $340β350/t FOB, suggesting the market may be approaching a floor.
Current markers:
β’ China prilled FOB: $330β350/t
β’ NOLA FOB: $437/st
β’ IPL secured so far: 410kt
MARKET SIGNAL
πΊ Hormuz risk is again dominating physical oil logistics
πΊ Inside-PG freight carries an extreme premium over Gulf of Oman loadings
πΊ Black Sea Suezmax surged above WS1100
πΊ Clean LR2 freight hit fresh records near $300k/day TCE
π» European and Asian diesel structure softened
βοΈ Urea remains weak, but producer resistance is building
Physical markets. Freight. Forward curves. Spreads. Daily intelligence.
π https://t.co/C4oTZCPeRd
#Oil #CrudeOil #Freight #Tankers #VLCC #Diesel #Shipping #Hormuz #Urea #Commodities
COMMODITYSCOPE | DAILY MARKET BRIEF β OCT 9, 2026
Freight is still dictating the physical oil market.
Hormuz risk, record tanker rates and widening regional dislocations continue to outweigh conventional flat-price signals.
CRUDE
Middle East activity remains thin as freight and security dominate trading.
β’ Cash Dubai differential: +$9.94/b β$0.78
β’ BrentβDubai 2nd month: β$1.62/b β lowest since March
β’ Hormuz traffic: ~20 vessels/day in October so far
Atlantic crude differentials remain under heavy pressure:
β’ WCS Hardisty: β$25.60/b vs WTI CMA
β’ Guyana Payara Gold: β$16.05/b β$6.55
β’ Brazil Tupi: β$20.70/b β record low
β’ Castilla: β$23.15/b
The common denominator: long-haul freight remains prohibitively expensive.
DIRTY FREIGHT
π’ PG β China VLCC: WS1230
π’ WAF β East VLCC: WS792.5 β30
π’ WAF β UKC Suezmax: WS992.5 β17.5
π’ Brazil β China VLCC: WS725 β record
π’ USGC β China VLCC: $81m lumpsum
For context, USGCβAsia VLCC economics are now discussed around $40/bbl freight equivalent.
That level is materially changing crude trade flows and refinery sourcing economics.
US SUPPLY
Hurricane Isaias forced further Gulf of Mexico shut-ins:
β’ Offshore production offline: 1.459m boe/d
β’ Roughly 72% of GoM output
β’ 129 offshore platforms evacuated
The disruption adds another layer of support to already stressed product and crude logistics.
DIESEL / GASOIL
Europe softened on flat price, but the underlying distillate balance remains tight.
β’ ICE LSGO: $1,489.50/mt β$22.50
β’ NWE jet FOB: $1,595.75/mt β$53
β’ ARA diesel stocks: 1.776m mt β2.2%
US diesel/gasoil exports to Europe are expected around 1.2m mt in October, down from 1.8m mt in September.
Rhine logistics remain severely constrained, with Kaub around 9 cm and barge flows described as close to zero.
ASIA PRODUCTS
China resumed clean-product exports after Golden Week.
Estimated October exports:
β’ Total clean products: β₯3.5m mt
β’ Jet: ~2.1m mt
β’ Gasoline: ~0.5m mt
But the latest export quota batch came in at only 4.5m mt, well below expectations.
Meanwhile:
β’ Jet regrade: +$5.52/b
β’ Singapore 0.5%S premium: +$22.31/mt
β’ Hi-5 spread: $81.89/mt β$17.66
CLEAN FREIGHT β NEW RECORD
Asia-Pacific LR freight reached another historic high.
π’ Persian Gulf β Japan LR1: $217.66/mt
β $12m for 55,000 mt
Before the war, the same trade was around $2.75m.
At least 90 LR2s have reportedly switched into dirty service this year, tightening the clean market further.
Global LR2 non-eco TCE: $276,253/day
UREA
Indiaβs IPL tender reset the market lower.
β’ East Coast: $352.10/t CFR
β’ West Coast: $356.25/t CFR
β’ Implied China FOB netback: $320β325/t
But resistance is now emerging from producers.
Current granular indications:
β’ Egypt FOB: $465β470/t
β’ Middle East FOB: $425β440/t
β’ Brazil CFR: $460β470/t
MARKET SIGNAL
πΊ Dirty tanker freight remains the strongest physical-market signal
πΊ Clean LR freight is setting fresh records
π» Atlantic crude differentials remain deeply discounted
πΊ Product logistics remain tight despite softer European flat prices
πΊ Chinaβs export return supports Asian product flows, but quotas disappointed
βοΈ Urea may be approaching producer resistance after Indiaβs sharp repricing
Physical markets. Freight. Forward curves. Spreads. Daily intelligence.
π https://t.co/C4oTZCPeRd
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