Confusion Matrix

The internet's only sports statistics blog

[Confusion Matrix @ConfMatrix]

Hello friends, Vik here! I'm reviving this account for Confusion Matrix, my sports analytics blog.

I'll be sharing medium-form articles on soccer, football, and whatever else I can turn into a statistical problem.

[Confusion Matrix @ConfMatrix]

That elevates DLS from a rain rule to a strategic tool.

If your advantage is in wickets, you have room to take risks. If it’s in overs, it's okay to be patient.

We already have the tools to explain why a chasing team is ahead or behind - we just only use them when it rains.

[Confusion Matrix @ConfMatrix]

Everyone loves to hate the Duckworth-Lewis-Stern method, cricket’s mysterious and chaotic rain calculator.

But DLS can be so much more: learn to read it properly, and it provides deep strategic insight into any run chase, even when it isn't raining.

https://t.co/B2eCC8iagV

[Confusion Matrix @ConfMatrix]

Instead of only using DLS to find a par score, hold the runs fixed and read the map along different dimensions to see if the chasing team is ahead or behind of the expected wickets and overs.

Same match, same chart, three different interpretations, regardless of the weather.

[Confusion Matrix @ConfMatrix]

I also found three teams — Iowa, TCU, and Boise State — that have been perpetual glitches in the matrix, defying the polls year after year regardless of how much the sport changes.

At some point, it stops being noise and starts being a personality trait.

[Confusion Matrix @ConfMatrix]

The AP preseason Top 25 is out, which means college football is close enough for everyone to start hoping that this might finally be the year.

But with the portal constantly scrambling rosters, how much can we actually trust preseason polls anymore?

https://t.co/UqVkSKyaT7

[Confusion Matrix @ConfMatrix]

I looked at the last 12 years of preseason and final rankings to see whether the polls really went haywire in the NIL era.

The answer: yes, for a couple years, but then voters caught up — except at the top end of last season’s poll, which was impressively, historically wrong.

[Confusion Matrix @ConfMatrix]

Against Mexico, England conceded more shots but kept the chances cheap. Against Argentina, Tuchel made the same bet.

If it had worked, it would have been called genius game management. Because it didn’t, it became cowardice. As usual, the line is thinner than we want to admit.

[Confusion Matrix @ConfMatrix]

Everyone knows you shouldn’t park the bus.

Or at least, that’s quickly becoming the new statistically-enlightened conventional wisdom.

But my latest piece uses the England-Argentina match to ask: when is sitting deep to defend a lead actually rational?

https://t.co/VIRtnmkrbo

[Confusion Matrix @ConfMatrix]

Attacking may improve your xG margin, but when you’re already up, that isn’t the only thing that matters.

Push forward and you create more opportunities for the match to break open. Sit deeper and you give up that threat — but (hopefully) also make your opponent’s chances worse.

[Confusion Matrix @ConfMatrix]

when we asked the department for spooky seasonal decor this wasn’t what we meant

[Confusion Matrix @ConfMatrix]

in the Oxford registration system "English" and "American English" are separate options for language proficiency so I'm proud to report I'm now officially bilingual

[MIT Graduate Student Union @MITGradUnion]

WE DID IT: with a landslide margin of 1785–912, we are officially the MITGSU-UE!!!

What started 4 years ago with a dozen students in an MIT classroom discussing the needs of graduate workers has culminated in this historic victory for student-workers at MIT. Now, we celebrate!

[Confusion Matrix @ConfMatrix]

Indian restaurants in the UK made a lot more sense once I realized they serve the *exact* same cultural role as Mexican restaurants in the US

[Confusion Matrix @ConfMatrix]

@sir_miyares For an entrepreneur I'm surprised you don't like two of the best movies out there about gambling and financial creativity

[Confusion Matrix @ConfMatrix]

@sir_miyares This is an obscene question but I found a couple that I think *you* would like better...
- Inception/Incredibles/Indiana Jones/Inside Out
- Caddyshack/Casablanca/Casino Royale/Catch Me If You Can
For the second one you can even add as many "Cars" movies as you want!

[Confusion Matrix @ConfMatrix]

Why does Katy Perry "The One That Got Away" make me want to cry every time I hear it...the saddest song of our generation

[Confusion Matrix @ConfMatrix]

I can’t believe they captured my entire personality in a single comic

[Randall Munroe @xkcd]

Confounding Variables https://t.co/EfTKCyvCFS

[Matthew Doyle @MattDoyle76]

@bob_morocco @sean_forman Also just cap Keaton Parks already gdi

[Confusion Matrix @ConfMatrix]

The 🇳🇱 hard lockdown only allows “essential businesses” that are necessary for the health and safety of the Dutch people so of course every cheese shop in the country is open