Continuum Economics

Independent Macroeconomic, Policy and Financial Markets research firm.
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[Continuum Economics @ContinuumDaily]

🇨🇳 | We feel that the authorities will pause appreciation at times via FX intervention, but then allow appreciation to restart. We now see further Yuan appreciation to 6.65 by end 2026, though the authorities will be reluctant to see much more.

https://t.co/M6vJb2CxBy

[Continuum Economics @ContinuumDaily]

🌍| The week ahead has plenty of notable events: Eurozone inflation, US payrolls, and central bank speakers all round. the ECB Sintra conference at the start of the week hears from Lagarde, and panel that includes Warsh and Bailey.

https://t.co/UkxjRh2tkY

[Continuum Economics @ContinuumDaily]

🇪🇺 | The speed and manner in which the ECB adopted a hawkish stance is response to the Middle East conflict was no surprise; it has many precedents, some of which have led to policy errors which we think may be being repeated at this juncture.

https://t.co/gambfu9QwC

[Continuum Economics @ContinuumDaily]

📢 Join us! Our #GlobalOutlook web conference is only an hour away, covering how the re-opening of the Straits of Hormuz is dominating central bank perspectives, and the effect of AI investment on global unemployment. Don't miss it! 🌍

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[Continuum Economics @ContinuumDaily]

📢 Join us! Our #GlobalOutlook web conference is tomorrow, covering how the re-opening of the Straits of Hormuz is dominating central bank perspectives, and the effect of AI investment on global unemployment. Don't miss it! 🌍

https://t.co/Rb1gPXwh7j

[Continuum Economics @ContinuumDaily]

🇧🇷 | Brazil cut the SELIC by 25bps to 14.25%, but received critiques from the market by raising end 2027 CPI inflation from 3.5% to 3.7% and talking about Q1 2028 in the relevant policy horizon.

https://t.co/BUGe11oW5g

[Continuum Economics @ContinuumDaily]

📢 Join us! Our #GlobalOutlook web conference is only a few days away, covering how the re-opening of the Straits of Hormuz is dominating central bank perspectives, and the effect of AI investment on global unemployment. Don't miss it! 🌍

https://t.co/Rb1gPXwh7j

[Continuum Economics @ContinuumDaily]

🇨🇳 | Momentum in AI/automation leads economic growth, with support from net exports still. However, consumption is not consistent with a 5% growth pace, as adverse wealth effects and a soft labor market mean only modest consumption.

https://t.co/RJELQdpNXG

[Continuum Economics @ContinuumDaily]

📢 Join us! Our #GlobalOutlook web conference is less than a week away, covering how the re-opening of the Straits of Hormuz is dominating central bank perspectives, and the effect of AI investment on global unemployment. Don't miss it! 🌍

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[Continuum Economics @ContinuumDaily]

🇷🇺 | Following the 50 bps rate cut on April 24, the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) extended its easing cycle on June 19.

https://t.co/43gkNZij9I

[Continuum Economics @ContinuumDaily]

📢 Join us! Our #GlobalOutlook web conference is less than a week away, covering how the re-opening of the Straits of Hormuz is dominating central bank perspectives, and the effect of AI investment on global unemployment. Don't miss it! 🌍

https://t.co/Rb1gPXwh7j

[Continuum Economics @ContinuumDaily]

🇺🇸 | In terms of the S&P500, we remain less concerned about high valuations in the tech sector provided AI labs growth remains fast.

https://t.co/HSMSPol4AH

[Continuum Economics @ContinuumDaily]

📢 Join us! Our #GlobalOutlook web conference is just two weeks away, covering how the re-opening of the Straits of Hormuz is dominating central bank perspectives, and the effect of AI investment on global unemployment. Don't miss it! 🌍

https://t.co/Rb1gPXwh7j

[Continuum Economics @ContinuumDaily]

📢 Join us! Our #GlobalOutlook web conference is just two weeks away, covering how the re-opening of the Straits of Hormuz is dominating central bank perspectives, and the effect of AI investment on global unemployment. Don't miss it! 🌍

https://t.co/Rb1gPXwh7j

[Continuum Economics @ContinuumDaily]

🇳🇴 | It may not have been a close call, but amid what were divided market expectations, the Norges Bank hiked afresh last month by 25 bp (to 4.25%), the first such move in two years.

https://t.co/oTgQMZTGzi

[Continuum Economics @ContinuumDaily]

🇬🇧 | Not only this month, but we see the BoE being on hold for the rest of the year with rate cuts then resuming through 2027.

https://t.co/Jmf1w09Kr9

[Continuum Economics @ContinuumDaily]

🇺🇸 | The FOMC meets on June 17 and while a change in the Fed Funds target range from the current 3.5-3.75% is unlikely, the statement is likely to drop the easing bias.

https://t.co/IesWfbFgc1

[Continuum Economics @ContinuumDaily]

🇺🇸 | We expect May retail sales to increase by 0.3% both overall and ex autos, but with a 0.1% decline ex autos and gasoline. Consumers are starting to pull back as elevated gasoline prices increasingly weigh on real disposable income.

https://t.co/0pLxoDlzCt

[Continuum Economics @ContinuumDaily]

📢 Join us! Our #GlobalOutlook web conference is just two weeks away, covering how the re-opening of the Straits of Hormuz is dominating central bank perspectives, and the effect of AI investment on global unemployment. Don't miss it! 🌍

https://t.co/Rb1gPXwh7j

[Continuum Economics @ContinuumDaily]

🇬🇧 | Perhaps it is a supreme irony that just as business surveys suggest clear weakness, if not fresh contraction, the actual real economy has surprised on the upside, even in the first month after the Middle East conflict.

https://t.co/OhLoTWfxkS