Double C

Retired Texan 🇺🇸 Transplant survivor. Love God, family and fishing. Politics, world news, and the challenge of the markets. Papaw to the grandkids.

[Double C @CoreyMontex]

Tripletail from last week on the Texas Gulf Coast. Not a fish you see every day. Has anyone else out there caught one? Heading back to the coast tomorrow for a week 🎣

[Double C @CoreyMontex]

First election night ever that I haven't watched a minute of TV news. No talking heads, no spin. I've let my Grok bots pull the odds, the polls and the results, and y'all have filled in the rest right here on X. Just a Texas Papaw, a cup of coffee and the real numbers. Who else skipped the news this year? 🔵⚪🔴⭐

[Double C @CoreyMontex]

Whales are moving as the polls close 🐋 In the last hour and a half, someone put ~$40.7K behind Republicans in the Senate fight, and then a run of bets pushed Democratic control as high as 90¢. Here in Texas, ~$20K went to Paxton and ~$19K to Abbott right before the polls closed. It's a tug of war with real money, and the votes haven't even been counted. Hanging in there.

[Double C @CoreyMontex]

Election Day money check 🇺🇸 The odds have ticked toward Republicans since this morning, but bets over the last 24 hours are split. Big money backed Abbott (~$247K for vs $61K against) and Collins (~$213K vs $107K). One trader dropped ~$229K against Paxton this morning, and Michigan money leans hard against Rogers. Tafoya's still 8.5%, and I'm holding my $100. Nervous but confident. Where's your money?

[Double C @CoreyMontex]

Election Day in Montgomery County. Loading up the grandkids and riding along with my daughter so she can cast her vote. Nothing like showing the little ones how it's done. Go vote, Texas!

[Double C @CoreyMontex]

@FirstLadyOffice She started with one town and a pause for food and medicine, and now both sides are coming to the same table. That's how real peace usually starts, small and patient. Proud of her, and we'll be praying for Thursday from down here in Texas.

[Double C @CoreyMontex]

Election Day. 🇺🇸 I've got $100 on each Republican on my table, 12 races and $1,200 in all. I'll admit I'm a little nervous, since most of these odds slipped over the last 11 days, but I'm still confident. The one I'm really watching is Michelle Tafoya in Minnesota. Polymarket has her at just 8.5%, but I think she has a real chance and would make an excellent senator, and a win there would turn my $100 into about $1,176. Abbott here in Texas would pay about $162. I'll post how my bets turned out tomorrow, win or lose. Who are you counting on tonight?

[Double C @CoreyMontex]

Day 11 — election eve, and these odds are wild. Collins just cratered overnight from 32.5% to 25.5%. Since Oct 23 only Sullivan and Ramaswamy are still up (+1 each); Lombardo's tanked 10 points to 22.5%, Abbott's off ~9.5. I'll keep this table coming through Election Day. Who are you watching tomorrow? 🇺🇸

[Double C @CoreyMontex]

Day 10, two days out. Back home in Montgomery, Texas, with my wonderful grandkids after a great week in Port O'Connor. 🎣 As for the odds, Georgia's Jackson has slipped to 30% from 38.5% on Oct 23, and Michigan's Rogers is down to 18.5%. Alaska's Sullivan is still above where he started, at 27.5%. Who are you watching Tuesday? 🇺🇸

[Double C @CoreyMontex]

Day 9, three days to go. Headed out after tripletail this Halloween morning in Port O'Connor, but first the odds. Michigan's Rogers has sunk to 20.5% from 28.5% on Oct 23, and Republican Senate control sits at 28.5%. Alaska's Sullivan is still holding up better than where he started, at 28.5%. Which one surprises you most? 🎣

[Double C @CoreyMontex]

"If you ain't cheatin', you ain't tryin'." That old saying came to mind reading about Alaska. The NYT reports people tied to Peltola's campaign helped put a second Dan Sullivan on the ballot. She denies it, and DOJ has sent 40+ subpoenas. Let the facts come out.

[Double C @CoreyMontex]

Been a little quiet on here. X put a temporary label on my account and I had to slow down, so I fished hard down at Port O'Connor instead 🎣 This big bull red made it worth it! Good news, the label's gone and I'm back. Polymarket's been swinging all over this week, but the polls are leaning our way. Texas is feeling good. Which one are you trusting? 🔵⚪🔴⭐

[Double C @CoreyMontex]

Day 8, and only 4 days left. Still down in Port O'Connor: it's raining this morning, but we had a blast yesterday. Rough week for Republicans on Polymarket, though. Michigan's Rogers fell from 28.5% to 22.5%, and Georgia's Jackson from 38.5% to 33.5%. The bright spot is Alaska, where Sullivan climbed to 29%. Are the markets overreacting? 🇺🇸

[Double C @CoreyMontex]

🚨 Day 7, 5 days until Election Day! Alaska's Sullivan jumped to 29.5% from 25.5% on Oct 23, while Nevada's Lombardo sits at 20.5% (down 12) and Abbott slipped to 62% from 71.8%. I'll post this table every day until Election Day. Missing a race? Tell me who to add. 🇺🇸

[Double C @CoreyMontex]

Limited out on flounder last night in Port O'Connor! 🎣 This airboat is our gigging rig, and with the season closing Nov 1 we're making every night count. I voted early before I left Montgomery, Texas, and I'll keep posting my odds table every day until Election Day. Who else is gigging this week?

[Double C @CoreyMontex]

Nice haul! 🎣 Port O'Connor gave me 3 reds, 4 flounder and 2 trout this morning, and flounder season closes Nov 1, so I'm squeezing in every trip I can. I voted early before I left Montgomery, and I'll still post my odds table every day until Election Day. Anybody else on the coast this week?

[Double C @CoreyMontex]

@KalshiPolitics Echelon's Oct 16-23 poll had Bottoms up just 49 to 48, yet Polymarket has Rick Jackson at 37.5% to win. A one-point race and a 62/38 split don't line up too well. What do you think is moving the money in Georgia?

[Double C @CoreyMontex]

@PpollingNumbers Papaw here. Ramaswamy up 47 to 45 in a poll taken Oct 23, and Polymarket still has Republicans at just 16.5% to win Ohio's governor race this morning. That's a big gap for a 2-point lead. Thanks for posting it. Who's doing the better job at the kitchen table in Ohio?

[Double C @CoreyMontex]

@QuantusInsights Spartz up 45.0 to 41.8 in IN-05 is a 3.2-point lead, and the poll's margin of error is 4.4, so it's still in play. Trump approval at 44.7% in the district is the number I'd watch. Thanks for posting the full crosstabs. Does Ford close with undecideds?

[Double C @CoreyMontex]

@FoxNews That veto pen carries real weight. Trump vetoed 10 bills his first term, and Congress overrode just one, the 2021 defense bill. An override takes two-thirds of both chambers, and a slim House majority won't get there. Making deals beats gridlock anyway.

[Double C @CoreyMontex]

@KalshiPolitics Only 1.5 points apart in this forecast, yet Polymarket gives Paxton just 32.5% to win. That's a big gap for a race this close. Here in Texas, which turns out more late: the big counties or the rural ones?