⏯𝔪𝔦𝔰𝔱𝔢𝔯𝔠𝔬𝔯𝔷𝔦

Occasional tweets on Science, Arts and Politics

[⏯𝔪𝔦𝔰𝔱𝔢𝔯𝔠𝔬𝔯𝔷𝔦 @Corzi]

@Anthony_Bonato More and more often now, using AI as source of unexpected and novel ideas for new approaches.

[⏯𝔪𝔦𝔰𝔱𝔢𝔯𝔠𝔬𝔯𝔷𝔦 @Corzi]

@JohnRoss43 @s_m_marandi Fake AI account

[⏯𝔪𝔦𝔰𝔱𝔢𝔯𝔠𝔬𝔯𝔷𝔦 @Corzi]

@watchingferries Political and regulatory risk is manageable with stable policy, CfDs, and clear frameworks. Currency risk can be hedged. Investors routinely accept slightly lower returns for long-term certainty — risk isn’t a showstopper, it’s priced into investment.

[⏯𝔪𝔦𝔰𝔱𝔢𝔯𝔠𝔬𝔯𝔷𝔦 @Corzi]

1.Would Scotland be a net exporter as an independent nation?”
There are two very different meanings of “net exporter”:
Economic sense
→ Does Scotland produce and sell more value than it buys?
Government budget sense
→ Would an independent Scottish state run a deficit?
#GERS

[⏯𝔪𝔦𝔰𝔱𝔢𝔯𝔠𝔬𝔯𝔷𝔦 @Corzi]

@watchingferries Continuity isn’t based on a single law — banking, contract, and international rules all prevent sudden shutdowns. Assets on Scottish territory transfer by default; debt is negotiated separately. Independence is about agreement, not rUK leverage.

[⏯𝔪𝔦𝔰𝔱𝔢𝔯𝔠𝔬𝔯𝔷𝔦 @Corzi]

@watchingferries No — I’m describing a trade-off. Returns fall because risk falls. Investors routinely accept lower returns for stable regulation, long-term contracts, guaranteed demand and premium resources. That’s standard infrastructure finance, not increased risk.

[⏯𝔪𝔦𝔰𝔱𝔢𝔯𝔠𝔬𝔯𝔷𝔦 @Corzi]

@watchingferries Switching off systems or bank access would be illegal and self-damaging to rUK markets.State succession prioritises continuity, not coercion. Leverage cuts both ways: energy, territory, treaties, Trident, credit ratings. Debt isn’t optional fantasy — it’s negotiated, not enforced

[⏯𝔪𝔦𝔰𝔱𝔢𝔯𝔠𝔬𝔯𝔷𝔦 @Corzi]

@watchingferries CfD strike prices reflect risk at the time (inflation, grid delays, supply chains), not a permanent floor. As risks fall and scale rises, prices drop — which is exactly what we’ve seen over time. Stable policy lets the state capture more without killing investment.

[⏯𝔪𝔦𝔰𝔱𝔢𝔯𝔠𝔬𝔯𝔷𝔦 @Corzi]

@watchingferries Because returns aren’t judged in isolation. Firms accept lower returns for lower risk, long-term contracts, guaranteed demand, and premium resources. That’s why regulated utilities, CfDs, and infrastructure projects invest at 5–7% worldwide — stability substitutes for margin.

[⏯𝔪𝔦𝔰𝔱𝔢𝔯𝔠𝔬𝔯𝔷𝔦 @Corzi]

@watchingferries Assets on Scottish territory don’t become switch-off buttons. Service continuity is the norm in state succession; systems aren’t cut as leverage without harming rUK too. rUK would agree terms because orderly separation protects its credit, treaties and markets —chaos helps no one

[⏯𝔪𝔦𝔰𝔱𝔢𝔯𝔠𝔬𝔯𝔷𝔦 @Corzi]

@watchingferries Investment isn’t perfectly elastic either. Wind goes where the resource, grid access and policy stability are — you can’t move Scotland’s wind. High CfD bids reflect risk, inflation and grid delays, not proof returns can’t be regulated and still attract capital.

[⏯𝔪𝔦𝔰𝔱𝔢𝔯𝔠𝔬𝔯𝔷𝔦 @Corzi]

@watchingferries Investors don’t chase headline returns alone — they price risk, stability, and volume. Regulated utilities worldwide earn 5–7% and still attract capital. With long-term CfDs, stable demand, and world-class wind, a 6% return in Scotland remains investable.

[⏯𝔪𝔦𝔰𝔱𝔢𝔯𝔠𝔬𝔯𝔷𝔦 @Corzi]

@watchingferries That assumes a perfectly elastic market. Electricity isn’t. Scottish renewables are structurally cheaper and location-fixed. A levy set below the competitiveness margin captures surplus without stopping exports — exactly how CfDs already work.

[⏯𝔪𝔦𝔰𝔱𝔢𝔯𝔠𝔬𝔯𝔷𝔦 @Corzi]

@watchingferries Most state IT isn’t “moveable” in practice — it’s embedded in staff, data, law and institutions. Scotland already runs its own taxes and benefits on Scottish systems. Shared platforms aren’t switched off; continuity comes first, negotiation later.

[⏯𝔪𝔦𝔰𝔱𝔢𝔯𝔠𝔬𝔯𝔷𝔦 @Corzi]

@watchingferries Renewables already generate low-cost power; subsidies are just one financing tool — value capture can be done via levies, CfDs, or public ownership, not ending the industry. Energy infrastructure = grid, storage, interconnectors. Tech= software, data, green tech -not all UK-only

[⏯𝔪𝔦𝔰𝔱𝔢𝔯𝔠𝔬𝔯𝔷𝔦 @Corzi]

@watchingferries Scotland’s leverage isn’t about forcing prices up — it’s about capturing surplus via policy: export levies, CfD reforms, or public ownership. Buyers still want cheap power, but the state can claim part of the economic rent without reducing competitiveness.

[⏯𝔪𝔦𝔰𝔱𝔢𝔯𝔠𝔬𝔯𝔷𝔦 @Corzi]

@watchingferries On independence, infrastructure within Scotland becomes Scottish assets. Roads, ports, energy systems don’t disappear — UK ownership only continues if explicitly agreed.

[⏯𝔪𝔦𝔰𝔱𝔢𝔯𝔠𝔬𝔯𝔷𝔦 @Corzi]

@watchingferries Strategic industries include renewables, energy infrastructure, and key tech sectors. CfDs can increase income by redirecting excess returns from low-cost renewables to the state, funding investment or reducing the deficit — policy design, not speculation.

[⏯𝔪𝔦𝔰𝔱𝔢𝔯𝔠𝔬𝔯𝔷𝔦 @Corzi]

@watchingferries Correct — exports ≠ tax. The point is value capture: Scotland can turn energy exports into revenue through levies, CfDs, or public ownership. GERS only counts existing taxes, not the potential fiscal gains from policy.

[⏯𝔪𝔦𝔰𝔱𝔢𝔯𝔠𝔬𝔯𝔷𝔦 @Corzi]

@watchingferries Your focus was on IT infrastructure. You seem to shift angles when faced with counter facts!

[⏯𝔪𝔦𝔰𝔱𝔢𝔯𝔠𝔬𝔯𝔷𝔦 @Corzi]

@watchingferries Energy exports are counted in trade stats, yes, but GERS treats them under UK tax rules. The point isn’t double-counting — it’s that policy changes, levies, or public ownership could capture more value than current taxes reflect.