County Line Forecast

Forecasting every state in the ‘26 midterms, county-by-county.

Live on 5/1 at

[County Line Forecast @CountyLineFcst]

https://t.co/mxUOZS5uqk now active!

Browse all senate battleground states, county-by-county. I’ll be updating the site every few days, adding cool new features as we go!

[County Line Forecast @CountyLineFcst]

https://t.co/mxUOZS5uqk website now active! Just the preview page for now, but might add a few sneak peaks before 5/1 😉

[Zachary Donnini @ZacharyDonnini]

Great first drop for progressives Janeese Lewis George and Robert White. I expect this to be more than half the vote we're getting right now.

[Joe @electionsjoe]

And the AP calls the second slot in the runoff for Steve Hilton. Tom Steyer will likely finish third, only about 1-2% away from second. Xavier Becerra will all but surely be California's next governor.

[Ellis Bates @ElliscbIV]

This race is in a completely different ballpark from 2018.

O’Rourke led in just two polls total, while Talarico has been leading in multiple polls every month since the start of the year.

And Talarico holding a net +27 favorability advantage over Paxton is nothing to scoff at.

[Ellis Bates @ElliscbIV]

Today's Los Angeles drop shows a modest improvement for Steyer over yesterday, but not enough to change the race's dynamics. He remains a heavy underdog to advance.

[VoteHub @VoteHub]

Alameda County 6/8 Drop

Candidate – Votes (Percent, Difference from 6/2 Votes)
🔵 Tom Steyer – 56,632 (38.4%, +10.9%)
🔵 Xavier Becerra – 49,130 (33.3%, +3.6%)
🔴 Steve Hilton – 16,060 (10.9%, -6.2%)
🔴 Chad Bianco – 3,696 (2.5%, -2.1%)

[County Line Forecast @CountyLineFcst]

Death by 1000 papercuts for Steyer. For LA and Bay Area votes to mean anything, he can’t be losing ground like this in the inland counties. A few more drops like this, and I’d be confident in declaring Hilton the 2nd place finisher.

[VoteHub @VoteHub]

San Joaquin County 6/8 Drop
Candidate – Votes (Percent, Difference from 6/2 Votes)

🔴 Steve Hilton – 8,840 (31.5%, -0.3%)
🔵 Xavier Becerra – 7,622 (27.2%, +5.0%)
🔵 Tom Steyer – 4,601 (16.4%, +1.8%)
🔴 Chad Bianco – 3,868 (13.8%, -1.5%)

[County Line Forecast @CountyLineFcst]

The margins between Steyer and Hilton are not big enough to erase Hilton’s lead. Steyer is winning by enough to keep the final tally close, just not enough to overtake him.

[VoteHub @VoteHub]

Los Angeles County 6/7 Drop

Candidate – Votes (Percent, Difference from 6/2 Votes)
🔵 Xavier Becerra – 42,385 (36.0%, +7.1%)
🔵 Tom Steyer – 36,776 (31.3%, +9.0%)
🔴 Steve Hilton – 17,311 (14.7%, -8.5%)
🔴 Chad Bianco – 5,208 (4.4%, -3.1%)

[Jordan Schwartz @MayTheSchwartz7]

One way to look at the progression of the CA Gov primary: each day of vote reporting has led to Steyer needing larger and larger margins with the votes that remain.

After Election Night, he needed to beat Hilton by ~9.1% in late votes. That number now approaches 12%.

[Dj @DjsokeSpeaking]

This is another pretty meaningful upward revision of projected turnout in LA County, +77k vs yesterday

They processed 157k votes today, but the outstanding ballot estimate only fell by 80k

[VoteHub @VoteHub]

Los Angeles County 6/6 Drop

Candidate – Votes (Percent, Difference from 6/2 Votes)
🔵 Xavier Becerra – 53,694 (35.7%, +6.8%)
🔵 Tom Steyer – 47,849 (31.8%, +9.5%)
🔴 Steve Hilton – 21,555 (14.3%, -8.9%)
🔴 Chad Bianco – 6,687 (4.4%, -3.0%)

[Zachary Donnini @ZacharyDonnini]

As of now, the trail is tracking toward Steyer narrowing the gap significantly, but still falling just short, by roughly a point. The remaining vote will determine whether that trajectory continues or changes.

[VoteHub @VoteHub]

Los Angeles County 6/5 Drop

Candidate – Votes (Percent, Difference from 6/2 Votes)
🔵 Xavier Becerra – 48,223 (35.8%, +6.9%)
🔵 Tom Steyer – 42,935 (31.9%, +9.6%)
🔴 Steve Hilton – 19,004 (14.1%, -9.1%)
🔴 Chad Bianco – 5,345 (4.0%, -3.5%)

[VoteHub @VoteHub]

Monterey County 6/5 Drop

Candidate – Votes (Percent, Difference from 6/2 Votes)
🔵 Xavier Becerra – 5,489 (35.9%, +7.4%)
🔵 Tom Steyer – 4,365 (28.5%, +3.1%)
🔴 Steve Hilton – 2,702 (17.7%, -5.6%)
🔴 Chad Bianco – 1,114 (7.3%, -1.5%)

[VoteHub @VoteHub]

Contra Costa County 6/5 Drop

Candidate – Votes (Percent, Difference from 6/2 Votes)
🔵 Xavier Becerra – 32,480 (35.5%, +5.5%)
🔵 Tom Steyer – 27,459 (30.0%, +7.8%)
🔴 Steve Hilton – 16,659 (18.2%, -6.4%)
🔴 Chad Bianco – 3,769 (4.1%, -2.3%)

[VoteHub @VoteHub]

Tulare County 6/5 Drop

Candidate – Votes (Percent, Difference from 6/2 Votes)
🔴 Steve Hilton – 410 (34.7%, -4.8%)
🔵 Xavier Becerra – 337 (28.5%, +11.1%)
🔴 Chad Bianco – 187 (15.8%, -5.7%)
🔵 Tom Steyer – 177 (15.0%, +2.9%)

[Zachary Donnini @ZacharyDonnini]

CA Gov Friday Reporting Expectations

Today will likely being the biggest day of counting of the trail. We expect vote updates from roughly 35–40 of California's 58 counties today, including most of the state's largest population centers.

6 PM
Tulare

7 PM
Alameda (first drop since 6/2)
Contra Costa (first drop since 6/2)
San Bernardino
San Francisco

715 PM
Sacramento (first drop since 6/2)
Los Angeles

730 PM
Nevada (first drop since 6/2)
San Mateo

8 PM
Merced (first drop since 6/2)
Monterey (first drop since 6/2)
Napa
Orange
Placer (first drop since 6/2)
Santa Clara

9 PM
Riverside
San Diego
San Luis Obispo

10 PM
San Joaquin (first drop since 6/2)

All times in Eastern and approximate.

[VoteHub @VoteHub]

At the peak of Steve Hilton’s lead over Tom Steyer, he was ahead by 8.2 points. That margin has now narrowed to 7.1 points, as late mail continues to move the race closer.

[Polling USA @USA_Polling]

Minnesota - Senate Polling:

🔵 Flanagan: 51%
🔴 Tafoya: 44%

🔵 Craig: 51%
🔴 Tafoya: 44%

Impact Research / May 28, 2026

[Zachary Donnini @ZacharyDonnini]

This is a very good drop for Steyer.

It is right at the benchmark gain he needed to overtake Hilton, and this is now the second large county, along with Santa Clara, where today’s late mail shifted more in his direction than yesterday’s.

[InteractivePolls @IAPolls2022]

ME Senate crosstabs by UMass Lowell/YouGov (5/13-26)

🟦 Graham Platner: 48%
🟥 Susan Collins: 43%
🟨 Other: 2%
⬜️ Not sure: 6%
——
🔴 Men: Collins +9
🔵 Women: Platner +19
---
🔵 Age 18-44: Platner +17
🔴 Age 45-64: Collins +10
🔵 Age 65+: Platner +6
---
🔵 College: Platner +25
🔴 No college: Collins +7
---
🔵 Dem: Platner +76
🔴 GOP: Collins +76
🔵 Indie: Platner +9
---
🔴 Didn't vote in 2024: Collins +14

UMass Lowell | 5/13-26 | 650 LV
https://t.co/cfWmQVbsSm