CregWithaG

My Public Journal | Trader in Uncharted Territory |

[CregWithaG @CregWitha]

What a game!

[Marios Stamatoudis @stamatoudism]

Regarding the recent action:

You can't make big returns without giving some back.

If you have a system that is based on big/home run trades and selling most of your shares on weakness in stocks, you must accept 5 facts:

1. You can't have outliers by intervening too much into strength.

2. We can never predict the power of a stock beforehand, so there is no reason to judge.

3.Not all drawdowns are created equally. There are drawdowns from peak capital and drawdowns on the money we actually own. There is a difference between the two. We can't avoid the first, but we can do a lot to have protective measures for the second.

4. We are the ones who create our portfolios. If we have a lot of volatile names in our portfolio, we must anticipate and accept the volatility that comes with them, both on the positive and negative side. We need to understand what's normal to give back.

5. No matter how many Market Awareness flags are evident, you can't shift your stance 180 degrees from one day to the next. We take progressive actions into defense as more and more signs appear.

Giving back some profits is not a bug.... It's a natural thing that should happen in a system like this.... It's a healthy sign that you were positioned correctly in a good run, in good stocks, and followed your principles..... You should be proud instead of being salty....

The damage is not caused by giving some profits back

The damage occurs when you are surprised by this fact every time, when it is actually a normality and violate rules after the fact.

The damage occurs when you don't understand how much is normal to give back based on the volatility of your own portfolio in each regime.... 8%, 10%, 15%+???

The damage occurs when you aim only for offense without having defense mechanisms pre planned. Mental and technical.

To be honest, instead of being salty, I treat these corrections as healthy.... More time for research, for refining skills, for time with family....and for new leadership to emerge... Especially when you have made a good buck over the past 2 months....Recharge your batteries , your clarity and be ready again when things turn!

[CregWithaG @CregWitha]

@realSharat

[Nick Drendel @NickDrendel]

Environment > Theme > Setup > Entry Tactic

[CregWithaG @CregWitha]

@ohiain Attention is today’s real currency. Smart man

[CregWithaG @CregWitha]

Stairs up, elevator down.

Time for patience and basing.

[Bracco ⚡️ @Braczyy]

The window of opportunity is open this week for parabolic reversals in $SNDK $MU and solana:JCEmtMhYCuijq6t3bXbZeyr4566RYmsLaSdr6pYd79Rt

Let's see if this post is more hated than the parabolic short write-up I did on Silver in late January....

Jokes aside, I wanted to share my thoughts as I have during parabolic moves over the years with stuff like $SMCI $NVDA $MSTR $SLV $GLD $KORU $CAR etc, especially if I can help someone who is riding a large unrealized gain take advantage and trim into these parabolic extensions.

Early last week, I shared a screenshot of a spreadsheet I had saved from a study I did on the specific extension metrics in which many historic parabolic moves peaked. I also noted that it was too early to short the semiconductors as that they had not filled out the criteria required for a parabolic short.

Below is the same spreadsheet, but included is $SNDK $MU and solana:JCEmtMhYCuijq6t3bXbZeyr4566RYmsLaSdr6pYd79Rt updated with their extensions as of Friday's close. The green highlighted boxes represent above the average in which all the study examples peaked at.

As you can see they are not all quite above average yet, but any continued hype and momentum early this week and all three of these names will very likely be in play.

One characteristic that is extremely important when identifying a parabolic advance is consecutive weeks of range expansion. We recently saw this with Silver in January when it put together 3 consecutive weeks of range expansion before it's climax, as well as many more classic, model book examples throughout the years.

Consecutive weeks of range expansion signal exponential price progression, a hallmark of parabolic curves. It is a week by week build up into a climactic reversal. The cherry on top is a signifigant range expansion week on the 3rd or 4th week of the burst, which is typically the final week of the move.

Here are the last 3-4 weeks of percentage gains for these names:

$SNDK
Week 1 (+7.48%)
Week 2 (+19.91%)
Week 3 (+31.62%)

$MU
Week 1 (+8.20%)
Week 2 (+9.15%)
Week 3 (+9.16%)
Week 4 (+37.73%)

solana:JCEmtMhYCuijq6t3bXbZeyr4566RYmsLaSdr6pYd79Rt
Week 1 (+9.81%)
Week 2 (+20.50%)
Week 3 (+20.69%)
Week 4 (+25.40%)

Textbook parabolic price progression over consecutive weeks on all three of them.

After that final 3rd or 4th week of signifigant range expansion, you then look for a similar parabolic burst on the daily timeframe. $SNDK $MU and solana:JCEmtMhYCuijq6t3bXbZeyr4566RYmsLaSdr6pYd79Rt all closed down on Thursday, before exploding higher on Friday. Need at least 1-2 more large, consecutive days higher for these to trigger a climactic reversal.

We also witnessed what felt like complete upside panic and FOMO in the leading semiconductors on Friday. One example being the news that hit at 1pm stating that Apple and Intel reached a preliminary chip-making agreement, which led to a near +13% gain in just 20 minutes...

Moments after that headline, Trump said "Go and buy a Dell", which sent $DELL soaring an entire 200% ATR move in just 30 minutes.

This is typically the type of price action and hype you see during the final stage of a parabolic burst. Not to mention the absurd volume of options being traded on these names as we approach May OPEX this Friday...

To close this out, we also have the $QQQ at 9.91 ATR multiples above the 50-day moving average as of Fridays close, a level of extension never before seen since its inception in March of 1999. I have no doubt this market can continue higher this year, but this print only helps add conviction to the names potentially setting up for a opportunity into this week.

To clarify, the parabolic short is an extraordinarily high-probability mean reversion opportunity, that can sometimes lead to secular tops, but not always. I have no clue where these stocks will be a month or a year from now, but I know my setups when I see them.

[Sharat @realSharat]

A 🧵 to log some of the things I’m seeing right now. Very curious to see over the next few weeks if there’s any signal in it.

1/ $QQQ at 9+ ATR from 50d (hit 10 intraday today!). Over the last 10 years, every instance of 8+ resulted in a 10d test, and most had a 20d test.

[Dani @trades_lakes]

I don't post much here but I spent years keeping a trading journal, not the kind with entry prices and stop losses, but the kind where you write things down at 2am after a bad week. Now I put it together for boom and bust traders.

Maybe it helps someone.

https://t.co/KVHRFY8j6o

[CregWithaG @CregWitha]

@ohiain How to change your life: quit trading options 😂

[CregWithaG @CregWitha]

@Playmakerxciii One of those things that you don't really have to read unless you're trying to catch the bottom imo. Waiting for a follow through day is never a bad idea.
I will say it's at least making it easy to spot RS in individual names

[CregWithaG @CregWitha]

@ZaStocks Ok to be wrong, not ok to stay wrong. Big losses shatter the trajectory of long term compounding.

[CregWithaG @CregWitha]

$QQQ

This range has been unkind to many. Caught between a now declining 50 and a rising 200.

[CregWithaG @CregWitha]

@mwebster1971 Couple this with “happy people don’t wake up and decide to be mean” and it makes it easier to show grace when others do not

[CregWithaG @CregWitha]

@ZaStocks Talking with boomers about AI feels like how I image their parents talked to them about the internet. “Don’t trust it” “it lies” “you shouldn’t get your facts from there” etc
It’s very early

[TSDR Trading @TSDR_Trading]

https://t.co/hRvZ7YUJ3B

[TSDR Trading @TSDR_Trading]

True Love is One Trade Away.

Happy Valentine's Day from Uncharted Territory!

[CregWithaG @CregWitha]

Day traders are having a field day today

[CregWithaG @CregWitha]

$RSP

May have been tech lead, but this was not just a tech sell off