JPM pours cold water on the "Intel deal":
On this The Information article “TSMC’s capacity struggles are turning into a boon for Intel,” seems like a storm in a teacup/nothing clearly new… The reporter argues that “Several major AI chip design companies” including GOOGL & NVDA are looking to INTC as a “backup manufacturer” for “their most advanced processors.” That may be true, but they don’t actually seem to provide anything concrete other than multi-project wafer runs which I think were widely assumed to be ongoing. The article discusses a GOOGL order for 3m+ TPUs in 2028. Actually these chips are still being fabbed at TSMC (N2 for compute, N3 for io die), and the INTC piece is only EMIB-T advanced packaging; this is already in our models... The article also suggests the NVDA is testing INTC capabilities for Feynman (but again this sounds like interconnect, not wafer fab… though they specifically also talk about NVDA “running early trials” 18A wafer fab). There’s also discussion of SK Hynix sampling INTC packaging. All packaging
Asian coal prices rise to the highest level in almost two years 🪨📈
What's going on?
🇮🇩 New Indonesia export rules are delaying shipments, tightening the market
🚢 Japan/Korea depending more on coal as Hormuz closure chokes LNG
🇨🇳 Summer heat is coming (higher Chinese demand)
DuckDuckGo, a Google alternative with an AI-free search option, had its traffic increase by 300% since Google ramped up AI's influence on search results.
People are fed up enough with Google's focus on AI that they're starting to switch search engines.
Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO:
Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5.
This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations.
Bloomberg Intelligence estimates S&P 500 funds must absorb 19% of SpaceX's float within 6 months.
Russell 1000 and Nasdaq 100 funds will absorb 24%.
The rules built to protect passive investors:
1. S&P 500 has required 12 months of trading and 4 quarters of GAAP profitability since 2002. Both waived.
2. Nasdaq cut its inclusion window from 90 trading days to 15.
3. FTSE Russell cut its to 5.
All three benchmarks are now structured to buy SpaceX at IPO pricing.
Banyak yang mengira krisis 1998 hanya dikaitkan pada IMF. Padahal dibalik itu ada penyelewengan ratusan triliun uang negara oleh para kroni Soeharto yang sebelumnya mengeruk keuntungan dari sistem Orde Baru.
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Indonesia masuk program IMF melalui Letter of Intent pada 31 Oktober 1997 di era Soeharto.
Saat itu IMF memberi syarat yang membebani ekonomi lewat program penyesuaian struktural.
Mulai dari kenaikan suku bunga, pengetatan fiskal, penutupan bank bermasalah, sampai reformasi perbankan.
Setelah itu, ekonomi Indonesia justru tetap jatuh sangat dalam.
Pada 1998, PDB terkontraksi sekitar minus 13,1 persen, rupiah ambruk dan inflasipun melonjak.
Di tengah krisis itu, negara menggelontorkan BLBI sekitar Rp144,5 sampai Rp147,7 triliun kepada puluhan bank.
Alih-alih dipakai untuk menjaga likuiditas perbankan, dana tersebut justru sebagai besar diselewengkan. Lebih dari 95% dana justru untuk membayar utang pihak terkait, spekulasi valuta asing, proyek pribadi, hingga penarikan dana terselubung.
Intinya, para pemilik modal yang dulunya ikut menikmati sistem perbankan Orde Baru yang bermasalah, diselamatkan atas nama stabilitas. Lalu biaya kerusakannya dilempar ke uang publik melalui obligasi rekapitalisasi dalam jumlah raksasa.
Per hari ini, utang debitur BLBI sekitar Rp211 triliun masih belum kembali ke negara.
Hampir tiga dekade setelah krisis, negara masih menanggung kerugian yang dibuat para kroni, sementara para pelakunya tetap bisa hidup nyaman dari kehancuran yang mereka wariskan.
Kenapa Trump sering tiba2 keluarkan GOOD NEWS ketika UST 10Y yield naik/ada di area 4.3%–4.5%? COINCIDENCE? Saya rasa tidak.
Saya coba backtest 17 event tariff pivot Trump sejak Jan 2025.
Dari 17 kali Trump bikin "good news" (tariff pause, trade deal, soften stance):
• 12 dari 17 event (71%) terjadi saat yield ≥ 4.3%.
• Saat yield di atas 4.5%: 3/3 kali Trump langsung lunak, yield turun semua.
• Saat yield di bawah 4.3%: Trump santai, jarang ada konsesi.
Bukti paling jelas: 9 April 2025.
• Seminggu sebelumnya yield spike dari 4.0% ke 4.4%.
• Bond market mulai jual US Treasury besar-besaran.
• Hari itu juga Trump umumkan 90-day tariff pause untuk 75+ negara.
Utang US = $36 triliun.
Setiap yield naik 1% = tambahan $360 miliar/tahun bunga.
US harus refinance $9–10T utang tiap tahun.
Setiap 10bps lebih tinggi = +$9B biaya permanen selamanya.
BOND MARKET IS THE REAL BOSS.
Trump boleh bikin kebijakan apapun.
Tapi kalau bond vigilantes mulai jual, dia balik badan.
Yield 4.3%–4.5% bukan sekadar angka teknikal.
Itu batas toleransi fiskal US.
Manage your portfolio accordingly.