Crypto Mirror

[Crypto Mirror @Crypto_Mirror]

Bitcoin Funding Rates remain close to mean of 0.01% per funding period across major exchanges.

$BTC is currently trading above the previous ATH price levels set on January 20th. This is the first time in history that basis remains suppressed despite a decisive ATH break.

[Bitfinex @bitfinex]

Gold just made an ATH of $4700/oz

This means the $BTC/Gold ratio is down 52% from ATHs.

Last time we were here, BTC went on to outperform gold.

Worth watching this cross as 2026 liquidity builds.

[Bitfinex @bitfinex]

Crypto liquidations in the last two days have topped $2.8 billion, Bitcoin slipped below $100k, and there are now reduced expectations of a December rate cut are in the air.

Why? Our research team has dug into what’s happening. Let’s dive into it!

Time for a thread 🧵

[Bitfinex @bitfinex]

Thirty-five days without a functioning US government has sidelined over 1.3 million federal workers, frozen key services, and added stress to an already fragile economy. Liquidity, sentiment, and policy visibility are shifting.

Read on for what matters next. 🧵👇

[Crypto Mirror @Crypto_Mirror]

4/4
Key drivers in Aug:
✈ Airfares +5.9%
⛽ Gasoline +1.9%
🥩 Beef +2.7% (13.9% YoY)
🍅 Tomatoes +4.5%
🚗 Used cars +1%
Stagflation hasn’t haunted the U.S. in 40 years,but the mix of hot services + weak wages makes it the defining risk today.

[Crypto Mirror @Crypto_Mirror]

1/4
August CPI tells a stagflation story: prices climbed 0.4% MoM (2.9% YoY), with core CPI up 0.3% MoM (3.1% YoY). Tariffs, gas, and a surge in discretionary services are the culprits.

[Crypto Mirror @Crypto_Mirror]

3/4
Fed is set to cut on Sept 17. But cutting into sticky service inflation, tariff-driven goods costs, and expansionary fiscal policy is risky. Models point to optimal rates of ~4.6–4.9%...above current policy.

[Crypto Mirror @Crypto_Mirror]

Europe’s “de-industrial moment”:
🇪🇺 Euro area inflation eased to 2% in June–July as GDP growth slowed to 1.4%.
🇩🇪 Germany, once the core of EU manufacturing, has seen 10 quarters of flat/negative growth, with inflation at 1.8%.

[Crypto Mirror @Crypto_Mirror]

📉 U.S. consumer confidence slipped to 97.4 in August (July: 98.7).
Concerns over job availability have now declined for 8 straight months, with households also less optimistic about future income.
Labour market sentiment is weakening—an important signal for the Fed & markets.

[Crypto Mirror @Crypto_Mirror]

U.S. new home sales slipped 0.6% in July to a 652k pace, with affordability squeezed by high mortgage rates and slowing wage growth. Inventory remains elevated, pressuring prices lower. Economists see housing weakness persisting into year-end despite Fed rate cut hopes

[Crypto Mirror @Crypto_Mirror]

Markets are leaning heavily on a September Fed cut after Powell’s Jackson Hole shift. Sticky inflation and slowing labor data keep the pressure on policy, while BTC trades as a barometer of liquidity expectations

[Crypto Mirror @Crypto_Mirror]

4/
The Fed’s framework has shifted:
From prioritizing jobs while tolerating above-target inflation →To symmetrical focus on both sides of the 2% inflation target.

Takeaway: Near-term cuts possible, but the era of higher rates for longer isn’t over.

[Crypto Mirror @Crypto_Mirror]

1/
Powell’s Jackson Hole Pivot 📉📈
At Jackson Hole, Powell opened the door to a possible September rate cut:
“The baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.”
But the decision now hinges on August jobs data (Sept. 5).

[Crypto Mirror @Crypto_Mirror]

3/
But Powell also flagged upside inflation risks.
That tension in the Fed’s dual mandate—price stability vs. full employment—means investors shouldn’t assume a cutting cycle.
A “one-and-done” cut is still on the table if inflation drifts higher.

[Crypto Mirror @Crypto_Mirror]

US electricity costs are quietly becoming the next inflation story.

July CPI shows electricity inflation running +9.5% (annualized 6m avg).

From 2020–2025, electricity CPI is up +37.9% vs. just +11.8% over the entire 2010s.

The AI boom = energy shock 2.0

[Crypto Mirror @Crypto_Mirror]

This divergence matters. If households act on higher inflation fears, they’ll pull forward spending—temporarily boosting GDP, but risking slower growth ahead.
That’s the path toward stagflation

[Crypto Mirror @Crypto_Mirror]

With Jackson Hole approaching, the Fed faces a test: can inflation expectations stay anchored?
Employment growth is cooling, tariffs are pushing prices up, and the big question is whether this is a one-off shock—or the start of a structural shift.

[Crypto Mirror @Crypto_Mirror]

Markets remain calm, trusting decades of Fed credibility. Models project inflation peaking near 2.9% before drifting back to 2%.
But consumers see something very different: Michigan surveys show 4.9%, while NY Fed data sits at 3.1%.

[Crypto Mirror @Crypto_Mirror]

In 2025, the US faces a housing paradox: demand surges, but supply lags

Residential investment = 3.3% of GDP.
Housing inflation = +4% YoY (half 2023’s pace, still high).
Starts ≈ 1.3M annualized, completions,far short of demand (1.5)
Elevated 6.67% mortgages keep pressure high