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[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

US Treasury Bills now yield 4 TIMES more than the S&P 500's dividend, the most since the Dot-com bubble.

Over the last 100 years, a multiple this high has only been seen ONE time.

By comparison, even in the 2008 Financial Crisis this metric peaked at ~3x.

With interest rate cuts being priced-out, it is likely we see interest rates on bonds continue to push higher.

This will keep US T-Bill rates elevated and perhaps push this ratio to its 2000-highs.

Yet another Dot-com bubble similarity.

[Bravos Research @bravosresearch]

The stock market is showing extreme signs of GREED

It’s only the 6th signal in 25 years

A thread 🧵

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

For the first time in decades, gold and bonds are trading in completely opposite directions:

This all began in 2022 when gold prices began pricing-in a potential drop in real rates.

This was largely driven by speculation that inflation would return.

Now, inflation is back and gold has seen a historic $400 over the last few weeks.

This comes even as 4 interest rate cuts have been removed from market forecasts.

Gold is trading in a world of its own.

[BITCOINLFG® @bitcoinlfgo]

BIGGEST #BITCOIN BREAKING EVERRR 🚨

TRILLIONS ABOUT TO ENTER THE CRYPTO MARKET

BlackRock just filed with the SEC to launch tokenisation fund.

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink: ‘…the next step is the tokenisation of financial assets, and that means every stock, every bond

[Bravos Research @bravosresearch]

You can’t make this up

[The Long Investor @TheLongInvest]

Bill Gates has done a lot of selling in Q4 2023

Reduced his portfolio by 65%

And only holding deep value stocks now, similar to that of Buffett

Time to prepare

$SPY $QQQ

[Barchart @Barchart]

Welp, we tried our best folks! Hug your families tonight 🫂

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

At this point, there is no question that this administration is actively facilitating illegal immigration.

The numbers speak for themselves.

[Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA @GRDecter]

🚨Container shipping rates skyrocket 173%

Carriers divert +$200 billion in trade from the Red Sea due to Houthi militant threats

Shipping a 40-foot container from Asia to northern Europe now costs over $4,000, up +173%

Supply-chain issues back...

Will inflation re-accelerate?

(Important to note: cost of shipping from Asia to northern Europe AND to Mediterranean cost 2x more than the levels in January 2019, but are still well below their peaks during pandemic)

[Lyn Alden @LynAldenContact]

In the run-up to the 2008 crisis, owner's equity in real estate as a percentage of total real estate value reached record lows (i.e. it was highly leveraged).

Today, it is around the highest in modern history.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

The biggest consensus trade in the market?

Short bond yields.

62% of institutional investors expect bond yields to fall, pushing bond prices higher.

Just 6 months ago, only 10% of institutional investors held this view.

To put this in perspective, even in 2008 and 2020, we barely saw 40% of institutional investors expect bond yields to fall.

All as markets are pricing in double the amount of rate cuts compared to Fed guidance.

"Fed pivot" is an understatement.

[Jesse Cohen @JesseCohenInv]

Wall Street Fear & Greed Index: 79/100 ⚠️⚠️

We are back in 'EXTREME GREED' territory.

$SPY $QQQ 🇺🇸🇺🇸

[Bravos Research @bravosresearch]

US government debt is now bigger than the US economy

This was unseen until 2012 when debt surpassed GDP for the first time

[Bravos Research @bravosresearch]

WARNING: The probability of a recession in 2024 has now crossed 60%

This level has only been seen 3 times since 1960

All 3 instances ended recessions

With heightened stock market volatility

Today, investors are convinced in a “Soft landing”

Yet the yield curve inversion strongly point to an incoming recession

This could catch a LOT of investors off guard

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[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

The gap between the Magnificent 7 and the S&P 493 (remaining 493 companies) is now 63%.

This year, the Magnificent 7 is up a massive 75% while the remaining 493 companies are up just 12%.

Combined, the S&P 500 is up ~25%, more than doubling the S&P 493's total return.

In other words, the Magnificent 7 is up 3 TIMES as much as the S&P 500 and ~6 TIMES as much as the S&P 493.

Just 7 weeks ago, the S&P 493 was DOWN 2% this year.

Truly a historic time in the markets.

[Hector Lopez @hlopez_]

Bitcoin network hash rate is now controlled 80% by 4 miners.

Is this decentralized?

[Barchart @Barchart]

BREAKING 🚨: China's Real Estate Market

China's Real Estate Market suffered an 81% drawdown from 2021-2022 and another 64% drawdown in 2023

[Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta]

Central banks are on pace to buy over 1,000 tons of gold again.

Despite the near-record annual purchases, it's worth noting that these institutions once held 80% of their balance sheet in gold

Today, it's barely 20%.

A return to the historical average of central banks holding 40% of their balance in gold could propel gold prices north of $3,000 based solely on that capital dynamic.

Let's bear in mind that these sovereign institutions typically lead massive pools of capital such as traditional investment strategies continue to have one of the lowest allocations to the metal ever.

H/t @dailychartbook

[Bravos Research @bravosresearch]

Personal interest payments have crossed $500 billion

Current levels have never been seen in 65 years

This sets the stage for rapid consumer weakening