Caeza 💹🧲

tunnel vision

[Caeza 💹🧲 @CryptoCaeza]

@MrBeast 11,818,923

[Julien Bittel, CFA @BittelJulien]

I can see all of Fintwit back to hurling insults at each other again, so I figured I’d share my view and try to be a voice of reason, even if I end up being wrong.

It’s my job to stick my neck out. I’ve been doing it for years, and I’m still here.

For what it’s worth, I think Bitcoin is forming another broadening wedge pattern, which is typically a bullish setup (chart 1).

We’ve seen plenty of these in the past, and right now we’re testing the lower boundary of support.

Another thing to note is that this bull market is officially 2 standard deviations oversold on the log regression channel (chart 2).

Unless the bull market is over, which is not our view, these levels are about as good an opportunity as you’re going to get to add to this market.

Also worth pointing out, Bitcoin’s Bollinger Bands have only been this tight three other times in its entire history (chart 3)…

What does that mean?

We’re in a mega low-vol environment…

Right now, the bands are as tight as they were in September 2023, just before a 200% rally.

That move lasted from September through March 2024, with a 20% correction in January before prices rallied another 90%.

The next chart shows the last three times Bitcoin’s Bollinger Bandwidth was less than or equal to 22, along with the forward twelve-month returns (chart 4).

The sample size is small, but the results have been extremely positive…

It’s the classic beach-ball-underwater dynamic. The harder you push it down, the more explosive the move when it finally breaks free.

All in all, we need to do better when times are tough. It’s not just your hopes and dreams caught up in this trade, it’s ours too. Fintwit can be powerful when you follow the right people who are genuinely trying to help. We’re not gurus, but we’ve been doing this a long time, built comprehensive frameworks, and we’re doing our best to share what we’ve learned.

At the same time, there’s a ton of poison and hate out there. Avoid it. When times get rough, we should rally around each other and stay focused on the big picture.

This is a 70-vol asset. If you can’t handle that level of volatility, this asset class might not be for you. If you don’t believe in crypto and the life-changing tech it brings, it’s hard to stomach the swings.

The only way to survive this kind of volatility is to extend your time horizon. When you think in days or weeks, every move feels like life or death. When you think in months or years, it all fades into noise.

Once you stop fighting volatility and start embracing it as a feature of this space, everything changes. Volatility turns into opportunity. It’s a gift that lets you add to your conviction.

Our view remains that Q4, once the dust settles, will be bullish, and we’ve done a ton of work to support that view.

That’s the best I can leave you with on days like this.

Good luck out there…

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

I think it needs explaining that although I see an elongated cycle it doesn't mean my analysis is right. The breadth and depth of macro/crypto analytics framework I've added since 2021 is massive and I'm happy with the probabilities currently but things can change...

At GMI we have done tremendous amounts of work on this all at the nexus of crypto and macro in The Everything Code. It comprised of over 4,000 charts (serious).

However, I am not a guru.

We all need to take lifestyle chips off the table to secure our own future.. I can't dictate that. In RV too we will do our best to help as many people as possible,

But we are not, and will not be, perfect.

This is your choice alone. Not mine.

Only you can actually protect your own future and thus limit regret if the market reverses or even it explodes higher.

I'm guessing I'll take 25% to 30% off into year end but I don't know yet. It's based on my own circumstances, not yours and its based on my p&l and not yours.

Also don't forget that your risk profile is different to mine...

I can afford to take outrageously concentrated risks like having 80%+ of my liquid stack in Sui.

But based on my work I think Sui it outperforms most others majors. I am not a maximalist and my portfolio can and will change but I will let you know if my analysis changes.

My job for myself is to maximise profits with best risk adjust returns.

For most, just buy BTC, ETH and SOL

My job for myself is to max profits with best risk adjust returns I think are available.

The Banana Zone won't fix your shitty asset allocation. If you have had a decent portfolio you will already be up 5x to 10x from the low.

If you are newer, don't chase gains, time in the market is vital, you should make money this cycle but here is more to play for over time,

You have 5 years or so to Unfuck your Future.

Please don't fuck it up.

This will be my pinned tweet so you can refer to it.

Just let it all play out and take profits on the way.

Good luck.

My work suggests the next 6 to 9 months can change all our lives but don't bet on it exclusively.

If you want to reduce risk and also play for higher prices consider selling some and buying longer dated calls in due course, where you can only lose your premium (as I did in 2021 with ETH and only risked 5% for a potential leg higher which failed).

I appreciate your attention in this matter.

[CZ 🔶 BNB @cz_binance]

Bntober
Astober
Bitober
😁

[Bitcoin Price @BTCPrice]

🟢 Bitcoin Price: $123,000

[Murad 💹🧲 @MustStopMurad]

SPX6900 will go Parabolic.

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: $3,500 $ETH

[Caeza 💹🧲 @CryptoCaeza]

@ZssBecker LOAD IT UP

7bvh3JJMucqE5pv3Yb9do46SNFwoMVGDMfvFgBsWN76E

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 US House advances Crypto Genius Act, Clarity Act & Anti‑CBDC Act.

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: $3,000 $ETH

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

BREAKING: Bitcoin reaches new all-time high of $115,000

[Julien Bittel, CFA @BittelJulien]

Here it is... the most copied Bitcoin chart on the planet, updated.

Nothing unusual going on, but remember: it’s not about matching Global M2 tick for tick…

It’s all about the trend moving higher – and that’s still firmly intact. Bullish.

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

BREAKING: $110,000 Bitcoin

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

BREAKING: #Bitcoin reaches new all-time high of $73,850.

[InvestAnswers @Investanswers]

🚀 #Tesla hits $240! 📈 Hard to believe it was $177 a few days ago and just $140, 70 days ago. The Tesla surge is real! ⚡️ - Still labeled as a Car Co 🚓🏎️🚗🤣

[Max @MaxBecauseBTC]

Here is #Bitcoin overlayed with the most recent US Presidential Elections.

Very interesting to see how price navigates leading into the election & then afterward.

Notice the grey boxes at each cycle top - Historically, price has rallied for roughly 1 year after each election

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

New Journey Man is now available! Join @BittelJulien and me for a 2+ hour masterclass.

The deepest, most all-encompassing macro video of all time!!

Enjoy! https://t.co/jZDSyuSbOb

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

Looks like #BTC did in fact visit the bull market support band, just like #SPX and #NDQ.

It's almost like #Bitcoin behaves like a more volatile version of the stock market.

[Crash @CrashiusClay69]

Patience + conviction 🎯

Soon I will be the first person the world has ever seen turn $15,000 into 50 million+ dollars in a single trade

DOCUMENTED and recorded on video

publicly from day 1 entering.

$BRETT is the SHIB of this cycle