Don’t get into FOMO.
104k is a strong resistance.
I took some shorts right here. With Take Profit at 90k and lower.
I’m currently completely out of crypto and waiting for a trend reversal still at 70kish.
Feel free to read a wonderful analyse by Trader Dune 👌🏻
Market Update (Operation Hardhome ❄️) V.5
(Previous Updates: 🎯🎯🎯🎯)
$BTC
The most important takeaway is that we have now hit my 104k ♨️ supply level, which was my "reverse titanic" BCS target. Bitcoin has been basically up only because there was no resistance anywhere outside of 96k that would give it any pressure, until now. We also have majors confluence with this ♨️ as well which I will get into.
Let's break this down into important technical bullish indications and bearish indications:
Bullish 💥:
- Structure is extremely bullish on all timeframes
^ 99k SH was reclaimed (SOS)
- Majors are now breaking HTF MS alongside BTC
- No signs of weakness (so far) besides the HTF rejection at supply
Bearish ♨️:
- 104k key supply has been taken and so far rejected
- We have taken NO HTF liquidity on the way up from 74k to 104k, (meaning as gas runs out of the tank, none was refueled).
- Other majors are now hitting supply alongside BTC
- Funding is turning positive
Those are the key points to understand, up to you on how you will consider them.
Now for what is next ?
I have been calling for the NEED of a pullback into liquidity for a healthy bullish continuation this whole ride up, but depending on the reaction at 104k this could be the first time it needs liquidity from both a structure and liquidity standpoint. Closing ABOVE the 104k liquidity level and that indicates massive SOS and 114k is in play.
This is just a fact on liquidity principles and many won't like to hear this. This is NOT my opinion I am about to express, it's a fact. The higher an asset goes that runs on liquidity without refuel, the larger and harder the fall will be. This is why my personal analysis is the July 24' playbook. Bitcoin is running low and possibly empty on fuel, if MMs did this on purpose than the weekly FVG range is the main eye. It sits right below the key PSL. That is where whales like to target FUD news, to send price rapidly ⚡️ down into key liquidity. So to keep this rally going, that key PSL has to hold 12H+. Right above is a partial large HTF Demand OB which is the conservative pullback area. Not a ton of juice, but it's something to keep it going if MMs have not turned price inelastic. 84k and 80k has now become too far fetched for proper pullback into liquidity while maintaining HTF MS. I won't be going all in there, but depending on future PA I might still have 1/3 LOs sit at key levels. I'll update on that scenario.
Summary: Structure is extremely bullish, but 104k ♨️ supply just gave Bitcoin strong sell liquidity when it has near empty buy liquidity left. This is where a pullback into liquidity needs to happen. Monitor the key PSL at 93.5k and HTF reaction above 104k liquidity level (if given).
$USDT.D
Tether Dominance has now caused HTF BOS, but now needs HTF BOS confirmation or SOS. There is another key SL at 4.38%.
5.10% is the liquidity to aim for pullback confluence to enter new positions for bullish continuation. Right above is the key SH, reclaiming that and that's your first major SOW.
$TOTAL
This is nearly identical to BTC, taking monthly supply here to confluence with Bitcoin's ♨️ level. 2.8T is probably the most ideal pullback target for the market, it should confluence with the rest of majors. The importance factor is the rest that sits around and within in it. Right above is the key PSL & it's within a weekly+ FVG. No 12H+ closes allowed below the key PSL and that FVG being filled in and closed below, is the main indicator this rally is over.
#TOTAL2
Finally broke HTF MS, now needs confirmation or a SOS which would occur at 1.24T SH right at equilibrium of the macro range.
I also labeled the pullback confluences above the key PSL.
Conclusion: Look to enter spot longs at a pullback into HTF liquidity marked on the charts, monitor key PSLs as all majors now have bullish HTF MS, majors are hitting ♨️ liquidity not only for the first time this whole rally, but all together at once. This is a GREAT time to TP your spot bags.
PS: There is other important confluences outside of these charts to look at
💠BVOL💠
"Something will eventually brew once BVOL hits within that trend again, the direction depends on the PA that unfolds before it."
https://t.co/JBRCSlJVK3
The trend is about to become hit right as majors take ♨️ liquidity. From a TA perspective, this would indeed indicate Hardhome is next.
💠SPX💠
https://t.co/PwgdqNyMKL
The 1M ♨️ Hidden Liquidity level has now been hit simultaneously with Bitcoin.
💠"Sell in May and go away"💠
https://t.co/SSzVCJfGwh
Whales hinting bearish Post-May with dates lined up in the 20s of May🔄🧠
With a 71% probability for a bullish reversal, you have more than enough certainty to start buying spot and hunting for the most powerful long setups available.
Is it optimal certainty?
- No.
So you size accordingly. You don’t go all-in, but you also don’t stay frozen, waiting for some picture-perfect level to magically hit. You move with probability, not perfection. That’s how winners play the game.
🏦 My expectations for the stock market in the coming weeks/months/years – inspired by @IamZeroIka@TraderDune@Moneytaur_
��� Short-term: Quick bounce for S&P 500 and BTC, sparking retail euphoria (“We’re so back!”). I see BTC hitting 72k before reversing.
📉 Then: Hard sell-off! A Black Swan event could drag S&P 500 to low 4k's and BTC to ~49k
💡My play : I’ve bought stocks to sell during this euphoric bounce. Watching BTC reversals at 72k and 49k.
Major confluence (USDT.D; TOTAL; TOTAL2...)✅
ETH Key Level ✅
BTC 72k⌛️
Looking to scale into BTC, ETH & major Altcoins who are backed from grayscale & other institutions because they'll likely not die this cycle.
You can check them out here: https://t.co/Cz4utTAKv1 & https://t.co/jZSHlJ4gtg
CONFLUENCE
Stack the major confluences together and you should have your answer 99% of the time. A significant buying opportunity is at hand and will most likely be a local bottom if all major levels are respected.
Easy money 💰
Still amazes me that people think the government cares more about humans than money.
- Pharmaceuticals are a business 💰
- Hospitals are a business 💰
- War is a business 💰
- Illegal immigration is a business 💰
- “Natural disasters” and “natural diseases” are a business 💰
- Homelessness is a business 💰
- Schools are a business 💰
Every problem you question, every solution you question, every decision you question is a result of a business decision 🐳🏦.
When the people of the world 🌎 are struggling and dying, the ones in power are thriving and becoming richer & richer.
WW3 💥🌎? More like World Money 3.
The Marshal plan during ww2 was economic interest from 🇺🇸, while the media portrayed it as heroic interests.
- Destroy Europe & kill millions, invest, rebuild, repeat.
🇷🇺 🇺🇦 is the same deal. Why do we send billions to 🇺🇦 and not have any for our own issues affecting American citizens?
“BlackRock and JPMorgan are backing a $15 billion investor fund to rebuild Ukraine”
https://t.co/ldyJi3cixz
- Destroy Ukraine, invest, rebuild, repeat. While the people get nothing besides death & suffering.
Covid 19 💉🦠? More like the gold mine vaccine 💉 💵.
“The three largest shareholders of Pfizer, J&J and Merck are Vanguard, SSGA and BlackRock”
https://t.co/2M0m2jx0Fx
In order for an entity to become profitable, one must become unprofitable.
It’s why the rich get richer & the poor get poorer.
If the poor gets richer, the rich get poorer. But we never see that happen.
💵🌎 If the entities in power truly cared more about humans than money, they would seek to solve issues like homelessness, healthcare, education etc… without needing profitable gains. 🌎💵
Looking back, I used to be the kind of person who got trigger-happy whenever I felt even the slightest urge to buy. I’d open my trading app like I was about to miss the opportunity of a lifetime.
I never stopped to ask myself the most basic question:
“If I knew this asset might pull back 30% later, would I still want to buy it at this price?”
Back then, I comforted myself with the same line a lot of people use:
“I don’t know if it’ll go up or down, but over the long run, it always goes up.”
It sounds reasonable — even optimistic.
But that mindset only works if you have unlimited capital, never need liquidity, treat your portfolio like a savings account, and have the patience of a monk.
I wasn’t that person.
Seeing red in my portfolio made me anxious.
A 30% drawdown wasn’t just a number — it hit me emotionally and mentally.
Holding through so many pullbacks, blindly hoping they’d bounce back, was one of the dumbest things I used to do.
That’s when I realized: I needed to learn how to trade.
And I had to face a hard truth: unrealized gains aren’t real.
Until I take profit, I haven’t actually made money.
And in the meantime, I’m losing — not just to price movement, but to opportunity cost.
My capital was stuck, doing nothing, while the market kept moving.
Learning to trade didn’t suddenly make me perfect.
I don’t catch every bottom, and I don’t sell every top.
But it gave me structure, clarity — and, more importantly, control.
It helped me stop being the person who blindly buys the top and panic-sells the bottom.
Today, I’m no longer chasing the “just hold and it’ll come back” fantasy.
I’ve learned to stay grounded, think critically, and let go of emotional decisions.
One lesson, one mistake, one breakthrough at a time.
If you actually took the time to sit down and list:
🔹 Every aggressive reversal on Bitcoin and ETH.
🔹 The “news” that magically appeared to explain each one after the fact.
🔹 What major charts were signaling before it happened.
🔹 What the biggest whales were saying publicly around that time.
🔹 What i was saying before the ⚡️ moves hit.
🔹 And the overly bullish news that always seems to drop right at the top [LTC, TEL, and others come to mind]
You’d start noticing something most never do: This game is rigged.
Sure, a lot of people say it’s rigged. They repeat the phrase like it makes them sound sharp or "woke" or ahead of the curve.
But ask them how it’s rigged?
Ask them to break it down?
They go silent, or they start guessing. They can’t point to the timing of narratives, the structure of price action, the coordinated influence of whales, or the mechanics of how fear and greed are weaponized, because they don’t actually understand the game. They just know they’re losing and need a reason.
The markets you’re participating in, whether you realize it or not, are one of the most beautifully engineered scams ever created.
News doesn’t move the market.
The market moves the news.
Narratives are built.
Reversals are planned, and retail emotions are manipulated on schedule.
Whales accumulate when everyone’s scared.
Whales distribute when everyone’s euphoric.
The headlines are timed.
The influencers are bait.
And the majority are just exit liquidity.
The illusion is precise. Elegant, even.
It's designed so that by the time you think you understand what’s going on, you’re already on the wrong side of the trade.
If you ever feel like it was "obvious in hindsight" that’s the point. It was obvious. Just not to you.
However, it was visible. The charts told the story. The setups were there. The same game played out, over and over again. You just didn’t know how to read the script, yet.
Once you do see it, you can’t unsee it. And that’s when everything starts to shift, because you’re no longer walking blind. You’re no longer falling into carefully set traps. You stop reacting like the herd and start thinking like the architect.
From that point on, your life starts changing not by luck, but by clarity.
$BTC MACRO (UPDATED)
Targets & expectations are still the same, I just wanted to add everything on a single post. Please remember, these are my personal targets/expectations that I will follow, nothing is guaranteed.
$BTC:
Did Elon just leak the bear market targets?
Big if true, but maybe it's a little far-fetched to assume a connection here...
Anyways, best case for accumulating definitely is around 20k per BTC, with the key level at 28k (closer to 30) being a more likely target.