Crypto Canarian

#Bitcoin Holder. Not financial advice.

[JDK Analysis 🇪🇺 @The_JDK99]

$BTC

Price is testing key resistance: session VWAP, mrVAL, and mVAL.

Lot's of fresh shorts entered on the selloff. They need to defend now. If not, mean reversion likely continues toward mrPOC next.

Trading the range, you could be in a short from mrHigh and a long from mrLow.

[JDK Analysis 🇪🇺 @The_JDK99]

$BTC key zone I’m watching into NY open 👀

Important confluence around 61,500 USD:
🔸 Buying Imbalance (see first chart)
🔸 mrVAL
🔸 mVAL

If OrderFlow shows strength there, I’ll look for a long.
Lose this zone, and I expect new overall lows to follow.

(NFA!) #Bitcoin #BTC

[JDK Analysis 🇪🇺 @The_JDK99]

4/4

We also discussed the final trade trigger: a "failed auction" above the range high.

"With price accepting back inside the range, technically we can target the opposite side of the range: rLow."
https://t.co/sgYy8U8ZgI

[Cheds Trading @BigCheds]

$BTC daily BB width indicator

https://t.co/61gYog0LO3

[ANBESSA @Anbessa100]

$ARX is live, biggest Privacy x AI launch on Solana

Kudos to the @Arcium team ☂️

Trading below below early Alpha trading range around $0.33. Scaling in.

[Poseidon @CryptoPoseidonn]

Has $BTC bottomed? Highly likely, yes.
Is $BTC going to hit $100k this year? Highly likely, NO.

I think we have finished with price capitulation, and we will now experience time capitulation until the EYO. We might reach a maximum of around $85k, but definitely not $100k.

[ANBESSA @Anbessa100]

Back from Malaga just in time for the $ARX launch tomorrow.

As I’ve said before, Arcium has been on my radar for a while. One of the most anticipated Privacy x AI infra plays, but unlike most launches, this one already has usage: 1.5M+ confidential computations, 5M+ txs and 12+ apps live.

ZINC, powered by Arcium, is currently #2 by 24h revenue on Solana. Umbra, a confidential wallet for shielded transfers & swaps and many more.

Also like the TGE setup here:
$0.37 with 1B supply = $370M FDV.
20.88% circulating at TGE = ~$77M initial mcap

Real float at launch, community round fully unlocked, and insiders locked behind proper cliffs. No tiny float, high FDV circus with instant exit liquidity.

That’s the difference.

[JDK Analysis 🇪🇺 @The_JDK99]

A major zone of resistance is coming up ~64,300 USD:

🔸 mrVAH
🔸 key TL
🔸 mVWAP
🔸 mrHigh

Given the weak weekend bounce, I’m very interested in adding to my short there, if OrderFlow confirms!

As long as price remains below mVWAP and mrVAH, the next logical target is around $61K: mrVAL + mVAL - classic value rotation.

(NFA!) $BTC #Bitcoin

[JDK Analysis 🇪🇺 @The_JDK99]

bitcoin:native 📈

Given the Failed Auction, the next targets remain mrVAL and mrLow!

I’m still holding my short based on the setup shared live, with OrderFlow confirmation (linked below).

Here are a few setups I’m prepared for:

🔸 Poor local low: The auction has not exhausted, and aggressive longs bought the low without clear major absorption. Structurally, that low looks easy to sweep and thus remains an easy target. If price then fails to follow through lower, respects the GoldenPocket and reclaims the low with trapped shorts, that could offer a scalp long.

🔸 Poor local highs: A sweep of the highs into the key pivot, followed by rejection and loss of the high, could offer a scalp short.

🔸 Upside continuation: The key zone above is mrVAH + lost TL + mrHigh. If we test that area with weak OrderFlow, I’ll look to add back to my short after TP1 at mrPOC, expecting rotation back toward mrVAL and mrLow. As longs as we trade below this zone, my next high probability targets remain mrVAL and mrLow. If we get a strong reclaim above mrVAH and above mrHigh, then the failed auction setup is invalidated and I would expect a larger move to the upside ~70K.

But again.. as we speak, the highest probability remains lower.

Enjoy your weekend 🫡

https://t.co/jDNcXg2X80

[JDK Analysis 🇪🇺 @The_JDK99]

GM ☕️

Let's keep it simple...

Price lost mrHigh → target mrLow
Price lost mrVAH → target mrVAL

A sweep of the poor low followed by an SFP into the GP could offer an intraday scalp.

I'm currently in a new secured short given another "failed auction" setup. bitcoin:native

[XO @Trader_XO]

2024 range profile...

[JDK Analysis 🇪🇺 @The_JDK99]

$BTC 📈

The "Failed Auction"-Setup is playing out right now🔥

OrderFlow showed a weak bounce on falling volume. Once price accepted back into the mini range, the FA-Setup triggered with lots of trapped longs above.

Lose mrHigh → mrLow becomes target.
https://t.co/g0P5DT2vd9

[₿IRB @crypto_birb]

$BTC $31,200 BOTTOM WAITING ROOM👇

[JDK Analysis 🇪🇺 @The_JDK99]

$BTC Short 📉

Price couldn’t hold rVAL.
It's now also failing to hold the mini range high.

As explained in my latest OrderFlow update, that leaves a lot of trapped longs above and gives another "failed auction" setup to target current lows. (NFA!)
https://t.co/HrBg99vFXz

[JDK Analysis 🇪🇺 @The_JDK99]

$BTC 📈

Strong reclaim of value.

My read remains the same: as long as price accepts above rVAL, I’m looking for a bigger bounce, with the first major targets around $ 70K. But lose rVAL and mrHigh again, and new lows become very likely.

(NFA!)
https://t.co/PchGEw15C2

[JDK Analysis 🇪🇺 @The_JDK99]

Only two $BTC levels matter now:

🔸 rVAL: major resistance until proven otherwise. Reclaim it, and a much larger upside move becomes possible - bears must defend!

🔸 mrHigh: key support now. Lose it, and trapped longs above can fuel a quick move lower - bulls must defend!

[JDK Analysis 🇪🇺 @The_JDK99]

$BTC 📈

Price is testing a MAJOR level now: the overall range VAL.

If we reject, fresh lows likely follow next.
But if bulls reclaim the level and hold back inside value, a rotation toward rPOC and rVAH becomes the next upside scenario.

#Bitcoin #BTC
https://t.co/9nr6vjTtU0

[Crypto Canarian @CryptoCanarian]

@Anbessa100 56...since 2021...Practicing stoicism is my religion now.

[JDK Analysis 🇪🇺 @The_JDK99]

https://t.co/0w5hD8k0In

[JDK Analysis 🇪🇺 @The_JDK99]

GM ☕️

A relief bounce for $BTC was due, with many shorts selling into rLow.

On this small bounce, many new longs are opening, creating fresh downside liquidity. The latest push was mainly driven by shorts closing or getting liquidated. Without aggressive spot intent, momentum is fading just below major resistance!

So for now my base case remains a sweep of the intraday highs, a test and rejection at rVAL, then continuation lower to fill inefficiencies and sweep major liquidity.

Acceptance into value, reclaiming and holding above rVAL, would open the door for a much larger bounce, with rVAH as the ultimate target (not my base case).

For now, we simply wait. Once a major level gets tested, we can assess the OrderFlow: If price tests rVAL and shows weakness in the OrderFlow, I’ll take a new short, fully close my long, and target new lows.

(NFA!) #Bitcoin #BTC