My 2026 Outlook
- Dollar continues to decline
- Growth slows (less AI spending, consumers are barely contributing to GDP)
- Energy stocks rally (metals take a hit and rotate into oil/natural gas)
- Healthcare does well
- Recession fears at back half of 26'
China's rare earth export controls are driving prices sharply higher:
Yttrium, used in defense, aerospace, and chipmaking, has skyrocketed +14,000% since April 2025, to ~$1,100 per kilogram.
Terbium, used in permanent magnets for electric vehicles and wind turbines, has surged +350% over the same period, to ~$4,500 per kilogram.
Dysprosium, used to strengthen magnets in electric motors and defense systems, has risen +450%, to ~$1,450 per kilogram.
The surge has been fueled by China's export licensing requirements imposed on April 4th, 2025, covering 7 rare earth elements, including terbium, dysprosium, and yttrium, in retaliation for President Trump's tariff increases.
As a result, exports of yttrium, dysprosium, and terbium are down -50%, -60%, and -50% respectively since April 2025, compared to the 12 months before the controls.
China’s export controls are holding back some key rare earths.
@BloombergTV Every time I hear "bundling", it reminds me of how the banks repackaged all the subprime mortgage bonds back in 07' before the financial crisis..
@APompliano Kindness is not free… it takes effort, patience, and most importantly if you’re lucky, you have parents that emulate kindness and therefore ingrain it in your upcoming.
@CalebFranzen Every day that you hold an asset that goes down, you’re losing even more money not being in something that goes up. I can’t believe people still hold this asset. Obviously the majority hold it and don’t need it but there will be a time that they do and it will go on fire sale…..
@phongle In the last 10 months $MSTR is down 60%... This is your last investment "strategy" until there is no more investors to fund a non-profitable/S&P competing strategy...
@jameslavish Which will cause more inflation and depreciate the US dollar even further... Not to mention, that scenario will essentially set the US to default on its debt by paying back their lenders with depreciated dollars...
@missnatoshi@Tiger7ord Do you have a plan if $BTC goes to zero? If not, you have not realized the potential of it happening. Be open minded. Think for yourself. Don’t be following a cult.
@missnatoshi@Tiger7ord When there are less and less buyers over a period of ~15yrs, who do you think is going to step in and buy it after it breaks its historical uptrendline..? The 4yr having cycle theory has been broken... The signs are there.. bitcoin:native