Cred

Always trader, often shitposter, sometimes educator. @breakoutprop

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[Pinned]

I've updated my list of trading resources.

It's now organised into different categories with additional content.

All free, built over the last 7+ years:

https://t.co/KBW57kT5T0

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@Tradermayne @breakoutprop I don’t wanna be at the tip bro sounds kinda sus

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@TThompson lmao

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As a lifetime retarded crypto investor I feel duty-bound to top blast and act as exit liquidity for all these upcoming tradfi IPOs

The expected value is quite reasonable:

If I’m right, I make money

If I’m wrong, then I just need to wait a year or two - I’ll get UBI and a personal robot giving me reacharounds and snacks while some dude in a San Francisco broom cupboard has to remotely view my disgusting body in 12-hour shifts for training data

Pretty good deal

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@abetrade Bro went outside and took a picture of the sky

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@DonAlt Just @ me next time you moralistic pedant

And it's a Ferrari not a Lambo FYI

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Good morning, fellow Web3 digital asset investors

Which highly correlated cryptocurrencies with unsustainable emissions, no structural bid, and a black hole of passive drift to the downside are we buying today?

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@wasserpest

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Video popped up on my feed:

“You’re not profitable because of what you do outside of trading.”

Lads, the psychology slop genre has gone too far.

I can put a Buddhist monk in front of a terminal - he���s generally not gonna make any money.

You need some sort of edge, strategy that’s +EV, or even a broad idea of a market effect that you’re trying to monetise.

There has to be a sensible foundation for the actual trades you take, and then ‘psychology’ can help with reducing unforced errors.

Most of the trading psychology stuff is cope; it allows you to focus on breathing exercises instead of confronting that your clicking is completely random.

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@Tradermayne He got your ass

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@insiliconot

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@awawat you're rather unpleasant

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@zackvoell Secure a c-suite position at a failing DAT

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There have been a few key changes in crypto market structure.

I've written about this topic before but I found myself carrying some stale epistemological baggage about how the market used to be versus what it is at the moment, so thought I'd share.

1. More coins than ever before and the barrier to creating new coins has never been lower.

2. More competition for the hot ball of money (AI, semis, tech, even commodities) and instruments like 0DTE options - all of which are very attractive to normies.

3. Change in participant type and sophistication - ETFs, more tradfi shops, suits etc.

4. Normie flows that used to concentrate around a few CEXes and a limited token set have been fragmented by the infinite listings and existence of the trenches.

There are fewer normie flows, they're spread too thin, and it's difficult to come back to the casino if you get dumped on for holding longer than 15 seconds.

The main attractor to crypto used to be outsized, long-lasting, and well-distributed trend and momentum effects that were easy to access because there weren't that many venues or coins.

That's basically up only/alt season i.e. multi-month periods that were responsible for a disproportionate amount of a crypto trader's lifetime P&L.

A rising tide lifting all boats is an overused but appropriate analogy - it didn't really matter what coins you bought.

If you got the broader market conditions right, you'd enjoy significant uplift and basically get bailed out even if you made bad picks.

In the current paradigm you can't afford to make bad picks.

To be precise: in previous cycles if you got the conditions right but the assets wrong, you'd still make money but underperform. In the current cycle (even from the most recent BTC run) if you got conditions right but the assets wrong, you got shafted.

So asset selection went from a nice-to-have enhancer to one of the main drivers of returns, even if BTC is going up.

That's a pretty significant departure from what we've dealt with in the past

This type of dispersion is a symptom of the market maturing.

I think that's a net good thing and is likely to incentivise more intelligent token design, less ghost chain VC slop etc.

But that's a forward-looking view, and at the moment we're trapped in this awkward transition phase where the old rules don't really apply but we haven't figured out a new framework yet e.g. top N coins by market cap are still mostly shit vs quality.

Maybe I'm wrong and everything changes and we go back to the market-wide altseason paradigm when conditions are right. This could all be cyclical, but I think that's less compelling than before given the dispersion we saw on the way up too vs just to the downside.

I think it's a good time (especially with other markets and asset classes going crazy) to revisit where crypto sits in the speculative stack and how to approach it as the market is changing.

Cheers.

[Cred @CryptoCred]

@SilvXBT If the spread is stale I'll fill without fail
🗣️

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@insiliconot @SilvXBT gde smetana

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@insiliconot @SilvXBT You're absolutely right —

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@SilvXBT

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@RunnerXBT I am one stop loss away from streaming slots

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@jords It's the inbred cousin of buying the weakest stuff for a catch-up trade

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@0xAphelion tbh the correct response to this rambling sludge of pseudointellectualism is "shut up and long the coins, pussy"