Crypto Currently

Crypto and Macro enjoyer.

[Crypto Currently @CryptoCurrentYT]

Maybe TA is astrology for men. 🤣
(screenshot from video being published today)

[Crypto Currently @CryptoCurrentYT]

Bitcoin entered the Very Cheap 🔵 region for the first time since late 2023.

Everyone was fearful and expecting lower back then as well.

I don't know where the exact bottom will be, so I'll just slowly accumulate and focus on my long-term thesis.

Don't let sentiment and narratives pull you away from following your plan.🫡

[Crypto Currently @CryptoCurrentYT]

The False Breakout gave us a great warning once again.

Strong assets don't have False Breakouts.

Weak assets don't have False Breakdowns.

Trading Ranges are valuable because the market tells us if bulls or bears are in control. 🤝

[Crypto Currently @CryptoCurrentYT]

Bitcoin is getting really close to the Very Cheap 🔵 region.

This would be the first opportunity to buy below the 200W MA since early 2023.

Not sure whether we go below it, but will definitely take advantage if we do.

[Crypto Currently @CryptoCurrentYT]

Bitcoin closed back below $76k.

Strong assets do not fall back into their trading range after breaking out.

Bears remain in control for now.

Expecting more chop and consolidation over the next few weeks. 🤝

[Crypto Currently @CryptoCurrentYT]

Bitcoin continues to follow the base case we outlined in December of last year.

We got our low in February. ✅

We got our high in May. ✅

Now we're looking for another low in August. ⏰

Then a bottom in October. ⏰

[Crypto Currently @CryptoCurrentYT]

Bitcoin bottomed on the exact day The GLI said it would.

Bitcoin topped on the exact day The GLI said it would.

No indicator is perfect, but this one continues to be quite useful.

[Crypto Currently @CryptoCurrentYT]

Bitcoin is beginning to diverge from Software stocks here.

I don't expect this to continue for long.

One of them will follow the other, but the tough question is which one? 🤔

[Crypto Currently @CryptoCurrentYT]

Bitcoin went lower than expected in February.

This resulted in the relief rally topping lower than expected in May.

The base case is still chop throughout the summer with a bottom later this year.

With Bitcoin bottoming higher than most investors currently expect.

[Crypto Currently @CryptoCurrentYT]

Bitcoin is retesting the range high after its breakout.

$76k is the pivotal level to hold.

Lose it and we can expect a choppy summer.

Hold it and the fun can really begin.

[Crypto Currently @CryptoCurrentYT]

The liquidity backdrop in 2026 continues to look quite different compared to 2014, 2018 and 2022.

This isn't an opinion.

It's literally what the data says.

You can choose to ignore it because it doesn't align with your bias, but that doesn't change the facts.

[Crypto Currently @CryptoCurrentYT]

What comes next for Bitcoin?

Fair Value 🟡 or Very Cheap 🔵

[Crypto Currently @CryptoCurrentYT]

You can't make this stuff up.

Bitcoin bottomed exactly when The GLI said it would.

Bitcoin started consolidating right when The GLI said it would.

Not saying this indicator always gets things right,

but does it not make sense that the fixed supply monetary debasement hedge would mainly be driven by liquidity? (and adoption)

[Crypto Currently @CryptoCurrentYT]

Bitcoin retesting an important level here.

20W MA that just got reclaimed for the first time since October.

+

$76k Range High Bitcoin just broke out above.

Should be an interesting week. 🤔

[Crypto Currently @CryptoCurrentYT]

Bitcoin has done a great job rallying into May.

The summer tends to be a difficult time period so I expect some consolidation over the next few months.

The base case is still a shallow bear market where most investors don't get the entry price they're hoping for.

[Crypto Currently @CryptoCurrentYT]

Bitcoin is still trading in-line with Software stocks.

Clear evidence that most people still don't understand what Bitcoin is or how it works.

This misunderstanding is what creates opportunity.

[Crypto Currently @CryptoCurrentYT]

Bitcoin range breakout continues.

Going against momentum tends to be a bad strategy.

As long as Bitcoin is closing above $76k, bias is that we head higher.

[Crypto Currently @CryptoCurrentYT]

The DXY is on the verge of breaking down out of this 15 year channel.

This would be huge for liquidity and risk assets like Bitcoin.

Probably the most important chart to watch this year.

[Crypto Currently @CryptoCurrentYT]

Looks like Bitcoin buyers showed up in the Cheap 🟢 region.