@CryptoxxxCoffee Would be cool if you send it to: rpAi9S1fuq8s8gUSZPY4m6KQ5vh4efyWH2 with destination tag: 1330644
If only I wake up tomorrow and see an added 3000 🛌
The Bitcoin top & Profit Taking
“Do you think the BTC top will follow the usual 4-year cycle?”
1. Intro
2. 4-year cycle vs super cycle
3. The Altcoins vs. Bitcoin trade
4. Profit taking and my plan
A lot of Bitcoin top and profit taking questions, so here are my thoughts 👇
1. Introduction
> The risk of trying to time the top
I think there's a big risk that starts with obsessing too much over the question of where Bitcoin will top out.
Let me give you an example of the inverse, which already happened.
I've been riding this bull market since the lows of early 2023. Did I buy the bottom tick? No.
I scaled in roughly at these points, over time.
Do you know who are not riding this bull cycle since the lows?
/ People who tried to time the absolute bottom
/ People who want to move in 100% of their capital instead of spreading things out.
The problem is that greed works at the bottom as well. People will constantly wait for another dip, one last dip, while they watch the chart pump in disbelief.
The same will happen at the top. People will constantly (it's natural human behavior) look for one last pump.
Everyone around you, and it’s already starting, will get more bullish the higher we go, and it only gets worse.
But if you know and understand that,
/ The risk-reward is different later in the cycle.
/ Your human emotions won't work in your favor.
/ The odds of guessing the top are not in your favor
/ Having one trade idea to decide your cycle success isn't smart.
/ Everyone around you will be bullish.
You should change your plans.
Keep it simple;
/ Buy crypto at the lows of the range
/ Start scaling out and securing profits at the highs and above in price discovery
/ There's no reason to be as exposed to price discovery after 1000 days in the cycle as you were at the bear market bottom. The dynamics of risk/reward have drastically changed.
/ Decide how you want to end this cycle.
The way to do this isn’t guessing or betting on some magical top number.
The way, imo, is scaling out slowly and building the habit of always selling.
On top of that, have:
a) certain levels or price action for heavier profit taking
b) bearish signals as a soft exit plan
Stop thinking in terms of: where and when is the top so I sell everything.
Start thinking in terms of: where are we in the cycle, what’s the risk/reward here, and does my exposure match that.
Where and how will I scale out?
More about that later.
2. 4-year cycle vs super cycle
> The 4-year cycle
So far, in the last decade, Bitcoin has shown a very repetitive cycle structure.
> Roughly 4 years from top to top.
> Similar market structure;
a) range low deviation
b) reclaim and pump to range high
c) break above and first leg
d) consolidation and second leg
e) top roughly into the parabolic resistance line with diminishing returns
> Alt season/bitcoin dominance down in the second and last leg into new highs
I think the chance of this happening again is high and this zone, no matter the exact how or where, is a good spot to take some profits, especially if we get the usual altseason (dominance down), imo
> The Super Cycle?
Something interesting has been happening over the past years and cycles.
While the potential returns and upside shrink in our 4-year cycle structure because of the parabolic resistance line, the fundamentals drastically increase.
‘A new (super cycle) risk’
Betting on “this time is different” is risky, and not something to solely bet on.
But the line is getting tighter, while fundamentals are drastically improving.
Many long-term successful assets had a similar diminishing return line and multiple cycles, like Apple before the iPhone, America before becoming the world power, or Nvidia before the AI boom.
At some point, something fundamentally changed, and they became more than just potential.
The risk of being fully in stables and cash after our 4-year cycle altseason grows with each cycle.
Discussing this is not just about how you play this cycle; it's about how you want to position yourself for the bigger Bitcoin cycle and for when it actually does break.
I'm not saying not to sell into Fiat, because making a 100% bet on it being different this cycle isn't smart. I've been selling into Fiat this cycle, and I will sell even more into Fiat later.
But I do start positioning myself for this trade slowly over time by partially taking (altcoin) profit into Bitcoin that will end up in cold storage and not be touched until we do get the super cycle.
Might be this cycle, it might be the next, but I'll not end up sidelined whenever this happens.
Imagine spending 5–10 years in crypto and ending up fully sidelined when the Bitcoin super cycle starts. (Bitcoin, not altcoins.)
This is probably a fact; once Bitcoin starts this super cycle, maybe this cycle, the next, or in 5 years -> most here will be either fully sidelined or completely in vaporware Altcoins.
3. The Altcoins vs. Bitcoin trade
Okay, back to the current cycle.
In a crypto bull market, it's not that simple to say hey, it starts, everything goes up now.
Nope, there is a certain money flow.
It starts with bitcoin, and for the first 1000 days, it's mainly Bitcoin.
Then majors catch up, followed by high caps, and then altcoins
This also influences how I scale out
Early in this cycle, I focused on buying Bitcoin and Solana. As they neared range highs and price discovery, I slowly started to take profit into fiat. (Not all)
(That money won’t re-enter the market this cycle)
Right now, we're at the point where Bitcoin dominance historically shows and the cycle shifts, more favorable for altcoins.
Without over-allocating, I’m now shifting focus to alts, and this part of my portfolio hasn’t seen the profit taking yet, but will happen once things go nuts.
Point is here; you can start taking profit slowly and partially on certain sectors within this market based on where we are in the cycle.
Let's continue in the tweet below; 👇
AUTISTIC PEOPLE CAN COMMUNICATE... JUST NOT YOUR WAY
A massive new study just crushed the myth that autistic people have built-in communication problems.
Turns out, when they talk to other autistic people, they share info just as clearly as anyone else.
The real issue? Miscommunication between different brain types, not some “deficit.”
So maybe it’s not that autistic people can’t connect.
Maybe it’s that neurotypicals keep expecting them to speak a language that’s not theirs.
Source: StudyFinds
I’m selling ALL my crypto in Nov-Dec 2025!
Everyone tells you when to buy
No one teaches when & how to take profit
Last cycle I turned $1k into $130k → then back to $8k
Now I’m at $5M+ thanks to one thing: mastering exits
🧵: My playbook for this cycle 👇