These levels are calculated by taking the asset's most recent significant high and low, and dividing the vertical distance by key Fibonacci ratios (0.236, 0.382, 0.500, 0.618, and 0.768).
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When Could Bitcoin Breakout From This Re-Accumulation Phase?
Bitcoin tends to develop a Re-Accumulation Range around the Halving
Historically, Bitcoin would consolidate in this Re-Accumulation Range for up to 150 days after the Halving before finally breaking out into Parabolic Upside
If Bitcoin were to consolidate for the next 150-days or so, then that would mean that Bitcoin would only breakout in September 2024
How Long Could Bitcoin Consolidate After The Halving?
But how long would an ideal Re-Accumulation Range last?
When Bitcoin reached a new All Time High in mid-March, this meant that Bitcoin was accelerating in its cycle by 260 days
But since Bitcoin has consolidated for over the past 49 days, this acceleration has now dropped to 210-days or so
If Bitcoin were to repeat history and consolidate in this Re-Accumulation Range for a total of 150 days after the Halving...
This would still mean that Bitcoin is accelerating in this current cycle but to a lesser extent and only by 60 days
Bitcoin Needs To Consolidate Much Longer To Resynchronise With Traditional Halving Cycles
For Bitcoin to fully resynchronise with historical Halving Cycles however, Bitcoin would need to consolidate after the Halving for more than 150 days
In fact, ideally it would need to consolidate for at least 210 days in the Post-Halving period in total, as that would bring the rate of acceleration to 0 days
An over 200-day Post-Halving consolidation would see Bitcoin breakout sometime in November 2024
Bitcoin Would Need To Repeat Its mid-2023 Range To Achieve An Over 200-Day Post-Halving Consolidation
In mid-2023, Bitcoin formed a Re-Accumulation Range which lasted for 224 days before Bitcoin broke out into a new uptrend
For Bitcoin to fully resynchronise with its historical Halving Cycles and reset current acceleration in this cycle to 0...
Bitcoin would ideally need to replicate this mid-2023 224-day Range
Bitcoin has shown it can produce a range like this however it did so in the absence of fundamental catalysts like the ETF and Halving
Overall, how long this current Re-Accumulation Range will last will dictate the remaining acceleration in this cycle and ultimately influence where Bitcoin will finally peak in its Bull Market
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