caponej3

[caponej3 @CryptoIntellig1]

Is the read here that China is building parallel financial plumbing for precious metals and RMB settlement, while simultaneously deleveraging domestic retail exposure, as it wants to avoid speculation led volatility over this period. You don't invite central banks and sovereign wealth funds to clear gold through your new system while retail is causing massive intraday swings.

It is being sensible while introducing new plumbing infrastructure. Bearish short term as it keeps the speculators away, and shifts demand to other channels (e.g. direct physical purchase), however bullilsh long term for embedding gold into financial plumbing.

[caponej3 @CryptoIntellig1]

#gold #silver today is options expiry. May 29 is First Notice Day for the June silver contract. Expect price weakness today and tomorrow.

[caponej3 @CryptoIntellig1]

@businessbarista AI-native

[caponej3 @CryptoIntellig1]

@BankerWeimar $93 when you posted this!

[caponej3 @CryptoIntellig1]

@Silver__Santa 🙌https://t.co/mQhE2j6JIV

[caponej3 @CryptoIntellig1]

Everyone bearish #gold or #silver because "Fed now won’t cut rates" has it completely backwards.

Gold doesn't care about nominal rates. It cares about REAL rates. The gap.

Fed: 3.75%
Inflation with $110 oil: heading to 5-6%
Real rate: -2% and falling

The actual read that matters: despite obvious inflation risks, they’re STILL projecting cuts!!

what happens when inflation hits 7%? Does the Fed hike to 8%? With $36T in debt where every 1% = $360B in interest?

They can’t and they won’t.

The gap is all that matters. And it’s getting bigger.

[caponej3 @CryptoIntellig1]

Everyone bearish #gold or #silver because "Fed now won’t cut rates" has it completely backwards.

Gold doesn't care about nominal rates. It cares about REAL rates. The gap.

Fed: 3.75%
Inflation with $110 oil: heading to 5-6%
Real rate: -2% and falling

The actual read that matters: despite obvious inflation risks, they’re STILL projecting cuts!!

what happens when inflation hits 7%? Does the Fed hike to 8%? With $36T in debt where every 1% = $360B in interest?

They can’t and they won’t.

The gap is all that matters. And it’s getting bigger.

[caponej3 @CryptoIntellig1]

@DarioCpx @DarioCpx thoughts on why western banks are increasing their net shorts - interesting given the context of quickly depleting inventories.

[caponej3 @CryptoIntellig1]

Why are US banks increasing their net shorts in #silver after being net long in Dec / Jan?

[caponej3 @CryptoIntellig1]

@AndreasSteno What data shows this? From what I can see, OI basically flat (would be exploding if this was spec driven), non-commercial longs actually down w/w, ETF flows negative last 3 weeks — so where's all this spec demand? All seems driven by physical to me.

[caponej3 @CryptoIntellig1]

@echodatruth Big silver bug here, but this is just plain wrong. The $17bn is 85% MBS and likely just year end liquidity management. The SOFR (>4% indicates stress) is stable at 3.66% as at December 24. The $17bn is also not unusual given recent history

[Flow God @FL0WG0D]

$CLSK - $1.6M Call buyer

[caponej3 @CryptoIntellig1]

@DrTororu @WSBGold I’ve been and had a similar but shorter wait a few weeks ago. Most of those there are picking up online orders.

[caponej3 @CryptoIntellig1]

🚨 $UAMY DOUBLE CATALYST ALERT 🚨
Sept 22: Added to S&P Global BMI Index → Forces institutional buying
Sept 23: $245M Pentagon contract → 16x annual revenue

[caponej3 @CryptoIntellig1]

$UAMY 8% move, and no activity on x! Truly early...

[caponej3 @CryptoIntellig1]

@DividendTalks https://t.co/BH2mGBht3U

[caponej3 @CryptoIntellig1]

$CRM The market seems to be punishing Salesforce with recent earnings. But this feels exactly like Microsoft in 2014 when the stock was stuck because "mobile would kill them."
Same setup: Great business everyone hates. Massive distribution. Real moat.
Here's another lens 🧵

[caponej3 @CryptoIntellig1]

Is this more like Microsoft in 2014? Everyone "knew" they'd missed the next platform shift. Except they hadn't.
I will say that the analogy is somewhat tongue in cheek, and it's too early to confirm the playbook is repeating.

[caponej3 @CryptoIntellig1]

$CRM The market seems to be punishing Salesforce with recent earnings. But this feels exactly like Microsoft in 2014 when the stock was stuck because "mobile would kill them."
Same setup: Great business everyone hates. Massive distribution. Real moat.
Here's another lens 🧵

[caponej3 @CryptoIntellig1]

Sure, maybe some AI-native startup comes along and makes Salesforce's products less useful.
But there's zero evidence of that right now. Enterprises are adding AI to existing workflows, not replacing them.