Two models. Pick the one that suits you:
1) Liquidity → Sweep → FVG → 3RR
OR
1) 4H FVG → 15/5/1 Min FVG → Entry → 3RR
Either will work.
Full PDF in the pinned tweet!
The White House in 2026 is full of:
-Soldiers
-Marines
-Police & patriots
The White House in 2024 was full of:
-Groomers
-Transgenders
-Pedophiles
The contrast is CLEAR.
Nobody likes that gay garbage.
$BTC
Don't rush to accumulate BTC here...
Market is building a fake bullish structure before next leg down
Plan is simple:
Liquidity grab → major dump → bottom formation
Elon Musk is a Trillionaire
Peter Thiel made $50bn from the IPO
Africans are being rounded up and booted out of Belfast
Keir Starmer’s ministers are quitting
What a fucking week to be a leftist, cope harder you fucking cunts
The biggest inflection point in markets this year is NOT the SpaceX IPO
Arthur Hayes believes Trump will pop the AI bubble to win the midterm elections
"He can't fix inflation, he can't end the war... the only option he has left is to flip on the AI bros."
He predicts H2 will be risk off across crypto and equities as Trump
Watch the full interview now
00:00 Welcome Arthur Hayes + The HYPE Trade
02:00 Arthur’s Trading System and Narrative Shifts
04:15 Why HYPE Became Attractive Again
06:11 Why HYPE Stayed Strong vs Competitors
08:20 H2 Macro Outlook and the Iran/Oil Risk
11:21 Why Higher Energy Prices Threaten the AI Story
14:13 Why Arthur Dumped Risk Assets
15:48 Balancing Macro Signals with Momentum
17:20 Liquidity, Treasury Issuance, and the AI Bubble
18:21 Has Crypto Delivered on Its Original Promise?
20:21 Bitcoin to $1M and the Money Printing Thesis
21:34 Bitcoin vs Gold and Long-Term Store of Value
22:34 Can You Still “Make It” in Crypto?
24:52 Trading vs HODLing: What Actually Works Now
25:49 Lifestyle, Money, and What Actually Buys Happiness
27:48 Arthur’s Big Contrarian Prediction on AI
30:17 Trump, Politics, and the Power Game
32:21 Attention, Entertainment, and Financial Commentary
34:31 Why Being Entertaining Matters More Than Being Right
36:20 Arthur’s Bitcoin Bottom Prediction
36:58 House Music, Ibiza Picks, and Final Thoughts
SpaceX prices Friday at a $1.75 trillion valuation. The biggest IPO in history. After actually digging into the filing, my call is avoid or short, and here is why it is built as a trap for retail.
Start with what you are actually buying. SpaceX is three companies in one. The rocket business, which is fine. Starlink, the orbital internet arm, which is genuinely the gem and the one part doing something special. And xAI, the Grok and Twitter AI lab, which is lagging badly and burning money. On any normal measure, EBITDA, revenue, the thing is very overvalued. The revenue does not justify $1.75 trillion. Most of the move from here is hype, because it is Elon, the biggest retail-followed name on earth not named Trump.
Then the part that made up my mind. Two red flags:
1. 30% of the float is going to retail. Normal is 5 to 10%. This is three to six times the usual retail allocation. They want as many regular investors holding this as possible, way more than a normal deal.
2. Nasdaq changed its own rules right before the listing so SpaceX fast-tracks into the Nasdaq 100 just 15 trading days after it starts trading. SpaceX is the first company to ever qualify, and it lands around July 7th. Nasdaq rewrote the rulebook specifically so every passive fund tracking the index has to buy SpaceX automatically, regardless of price. That is manufactured exit liquidity, and the tell is that the S&P 500 is declining to auto-include it.
Here is the timing, because this is where most people get it wrong. The bubble is not over yet. It does not end until all three mega-IPOs are public, SpaceX, then Anthropic, then OpenAI, and that is five to six months out, into year-end. SpaceX itself might even hold or pump in the first month, the way a crypto TGE does, right up until the index inclusion forces the passive bid. The danger is not this week. It is later this year, once the last IPO lists and the exit liquidity is spent. That is the top. And by then the Nasdaq, stuffed with SpaceX and every other AI mega-cap, is the index that gets hurt the most. When I de-risk later this cycle, I am not holding the Nasdaq.
Me personally, I will put a tiny amount into the tokenized pre-IPO and a Hyperliquid position, purely to learn how those instruments convert into real shares once it lists. Not a money trade. There is no edge chasing a deal engineered to hand retail the bag at the top.
🚨Simple Steps to Find Best SMC Setup 👀👇
1. Mark BOS
2. Mark Displacement
3. Mark FVG at Displacement
4. Wait the Price to Touch the FVG
5. Enter at FVG
THE BIGGEST IPOs OF THE LAST 15 YEARS HAVE ONE THING IN COMMON:
THEY CRUSHED THE PEOPLE WHO BOUGHT THE HYPE.
🇺🇸 Robinhood -90%. Rivian -88%. Lyft -79%. Coinbase -57%. Facebook -54%. Median max drawdown: -54% in year one.
Big brands. Big narratives. Big backing. Still brutal entries.
SpaceX has the same DNA: enormous hype, low float, early investors deep in the green and waiting to sell.
A great company isn't a great IPO buy. By the time everyone wants in, they are the liquidity.
A viral new website lets users pay strangers to do whatever they want for money
The site allows users to make ‘bounties’ which people complete for monetary rewards, including getting a forehead tattoo, applying for jobs, or buying strangers’ groceries
🚨 OMG. President Trump CUTS OFF and WALKS OUT of a Kristen Welker interview
He looks her in the eyes and tells her SHE'S A LIAR, then storms off!
"The elections are like a 3rd world country. YOU'RE CROOKED...let's call it QUITS. I've HAD ENOUGH."
WELKER: Please, I traveled all the way to Wisconsin!
TRUMP: "I've sat in the RAIN with you for an HOUR! I've given you enough time. You ought to straighten out your press. You know what? A country can never be great with a dishonest press. Let's GO."
WELKER: *Whines*
BEST PRESIDENT EVER 🔥🔥🔥
🚨 MUST WATCH: ISRAEL WAS JUST CAUGHT SPYING ON THE PENTAGON AND TRUMP’S TOP NEGOTIATOR… VICE PRESIDENT JD VANCE REACTS 🚨
“Israel may like that, they may not like that… this is in the BEST INTEREST of the United States of America” 🇺🇸🔥
IRAN TO PAY?
Since talks began, Iran has demanded compensation as part of any ceasefire deal.
Now the U.S. may be flipping the script.
Washington is reportedly weighing a plan to use frozen Iranian assets to compensate America and Gulf allies for damage caused by Iranian attacks.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has reportedly ordered officials to tally the repair and recovery costs.
Penny Lane walked the Sports Illustrated Miami Swim Week runway and broke the internet doing it.
How? A black cut-out one-piece.
The fashion industry spent years telling you what beauty should look like.
Turns out, nobody asked.
The West has created an utterly evil state religion where an accusation of “racism�� is the gravest offense that can be committed, even worse than rape or murder!
So if police show up at a crime scene and a British boy is bleeding out and an immigrant says the British boy is racist the cops will cuff the dying British boy.