$HYPE, 2 zones, already at the 1st imp level here, hold here and 3 digits wont b a dream anymore!
These 2 level should act very imp. if this is destined to pump!
Being right early is most expensive mistake in trading.
I called the cycle tops every cycle precisely.
And got insane amount of hate for this.
Why?
Because it looks identical to being wrong.
You see the top. You call the top. You position for it. The market keeps going up for six months.
Your followers laugh. Your DMs fill with insults. Your conviction breaks. Without balls of steel, you exit before it works.
Six months later the market does exactly what you said it would.
And you have nothing to show for it. No position. No vindication. Just a chart that proved you right after you already gave up.
The market does not pay you for being right.
It pays you for being there when right finally happens.
Most traders never learn this.
So the bottom line is this:
Being early on X is more expensive than being wrong.
Agree or disagree?
Listen to this video.
All these promises, he told us exactly what we wanted to hear.
And then he turned around and broke them all.
He protected the elites, built a fortress around the swamp, endorsed all the RINOs, and became a warmonger waging wars.
Trump is the very snake he warned us all about.
Everyone says SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI IPOs are bullish.
They're wrong.
Why?
Basically, three of the most hyped private companies of the cycle are coming to public markets.
Think about it.
⇝ Every IPO is sold to you at peak insider optimism, not peak company growth
⇝ Founders and VCs distribute to retail when retail demand is maximum - by definition
⇝ Lockup expiry six months later is when reality catches up
⇝ Late-cycle IPO clusters historically marked tops, not breakouts
1999 was the same shape. Petscom. Webvan. eToys. All hyped, all sold to public at the top, all gone within 24 months.
AI is not crypto. The companies will survive. But the valuations they IPO at probably won't.
Behavioral finance calls this the "hot issue market."
It's a sign of sentiment not growth.
If your thesis depends on buying Anthropic at IPO, your thesis is sentiment - not fundamentals.
Sentiment can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
I've got bad feelings about this.
And now most important point of them all.
Random dudes ask me if I'm joining these IPOs.
Do you understand what that means?
59 years ago today, Israel attacked the USS Liberty in international waters. 34 crew members were killed and 174 were wounded by the IDF.
Today, I spoke on the House floor to honor the fallen and to recognize the survivors who were present in the gallery.
// HYPE
Great, doing what I wanted to see.
Now we wait for a base & trigger, either around the current key level or the one below.
Still think Hyperliquid will be one of the main runners again, just feels like it (and the market in general) needs a bit more time.
my bottom buy at $60k was a once-a-year type of thing
to me, those countertrend plays are only relevant in extremes; when price was at ~$70k and I said “this will not stop without some kind of sharp cascade candle”, the consensus response was: “is this not already sharp enough?!?!”
[it wasn’t]
the best forecasters I’ve met do not call themselves forecasters, because 99% of the time there is nothing to forecast on
most people’s gauge of what is considered ‘extreme’ is quite poor, which is why it’s easier to deter people away from knife-catching entirely than it is to try to give them a metric to use in order to viably dabble in that venture
the best metric I’ve found is just simply using the bid/ask spread of the (tier-1) exchange you’re trading on
when price is blinking multiple %’s every millisecond, that’s when it’s worth even considering spot buys in the midst of a substantial downtrend
this entire selloff thus far has been the exact opposite: controlled and sustained bleeding. nothing about this move has been considered ‘illiquid’
so the strategy is simple: wait for strength once again, as I’ve proven to myself, and my followers, time and time again that I have the ability to adapt to strength and capture the majority of fruitful rallies
or allow some kind of capitulation event to fall into my lap
when that kind of event happens, it’s essentially free money for those that have the patience, discipline, and capital, and are willing to bid spot and hold for a decent amount of time during peak fear
and when those kinds of moves happen, you always wish you had the ability to justify bidding more
regret seeps in and you remind yourself of every knife-catch you attempted on the way into the one where the stars aligned perfectly.
it’s a matter of f*cking off and doing nothing at all in the meantime
this is the way.
Goodluck.🖤
// HYPE
Hit my buy zone, but not a setup I'd like to jump on yet.
Ideally, we're now at the blue circle, take one more dive below the key level and form a base.
If we then break back above and reclaim the local trend, that's my trigger.
The Iranian navy, which has been destroyed eight times, has apparently closed the Strait of Hormuz again, because the United States, for the seventh time, won the war that wasn’t a war, so now the United States has to open the Strait of Hormuz that was already open before the not-war began.
The not-war began because Iran had uranium that was totally, completely, beautifully obliterated, so they can’t build the nuclear bomb they weren’t building, which is why the United States had to start the not-war it definitely didn’t start.
Now the United States, which has nuclear weapons, is threatening to use nuclear weapons to stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons, because nuclear weapons are far too dangerous for countries with nuclear weapons to allow other countries to have.
If the United States saw the United States doing what the United States does in other countries, the United States would invade the United States to liberate the United States from the tyranny of the United States.