Wintermute

Crypto, Stock Option, motorcycle and car nut. IT expert and business owner. USAF veteran.

[Wintermute @CryptoSDMark]

Most EV analysis covers who's winning. Very little covers why the losses exist, what they actually mean, and which companies are being misread by the market.
Spent weeks going through filings, Investor Day presentations, and building scenario models. Sharing the most surprising findings — one per day. Full research package follows, including scenario models with breakeven timing, dilution analysis, and stock price implications.
$LCID $F $GM $STLA

[Wintermute @CryptoSDMark]

San Antonio was nice. My tech school was at Lowry AFB, Aurora, CO. First duty station was George AFB, Victorville, CA. Last duty station was Kadena AB, Okinawa, Japan. I was an avionics tech for F-4 aircraft.
Two of those bases are now closed, the F-4 is long retired, and I'm no longer that 19-year-old kid.

[Wintermute @CryptoSDMark]

@SaudiBay

[Wintermute @CryptoSDMark]

#SapphireChallenge

Yesterday's $LCID earnings call was good overall. There were negatives, but they were known going in. Still I was curious how the market would digest it.
The answer so far: LCID is up while the broader market and the other BEV makers are down.

[Wintermute @CryptoSDMark]

@R1Stephanie @briandstone @Uber @nuro @doll_debbie

[Wintermute @CryptoSDMark]

Investors who cut and run are doing so mostly because of continued losses. I think Lucid and AlixPartners properly identified the key imperatives and are working the problem. FSD-like autonomy, although helpful down the road (see what I did there?), did not make the cut for survival mode. A laser-like focus on survival is just what Lucid needs, and the new management seems to be doing that.

[Wintermute @CryptoSDMark]

I get that. But what if you told your users that you will provide a product that does something that no one else has done yet in? Would they still want a more narrow delivery window, or just excited? Lucid's target in L4 in a POV. No one has that yet. Also, L4 isn't just software, it needs the underlying hardware.

[Wintermute @CryptoSDMark]

Thanks for that.

I too am an investor. I recently ended a three-year Air lease and now have a Gravity. I previously drove a 2014 Audi Q5, 2016 BMW i3, and 2014 BMW 335i. I've worked in technology since 1984. This is all for context.

I see it differently. Coming from vehicles with older-style user interfaces, I thought the Air was good, and Gravity is even better. The path to Lucid's profitability lies in better factory utilization. That comes with volume. Tesla achieved volume before FSD was very useful. Most high-volume cars have rudimentary self-driving capabilities. Even Tesla's FSD adoption rate was not very high until recently, when the cars started coming with free trials and hardware that was actually capable of delivering on the promise.

Lucid's ADAS capabilities are on a parallel track to their partnership with Nuro and Uber. Lucid's native ADAS capabilities aren't used in that partnership.

Being in technology, I know that it is impossible to tell exactly when a problem will be solved. You can estimate, but estimates are frequently wrong. Lucid and NVIDIA are solving a problem, SAE Level 4 autonomy. Obviously it isn't solved, otherwise they would already have it. But I am confident in their ability to continue to make gains. Mercedes CLA already has an L2++ system using NVIDIA DRIVE, and Cosmos will have an even more powerful system capable of L4 autonomy.

I agree with you that the things you mentioned will drive long-term growth. I just think we already have as much information on these topics as the company can reasonably provide. If there is no new news a year from now, then I will complain and expect more.

[Wintermute @CryptoSDMark]

@GGialtouridis @LucidMotors Every Lucid vehicle built to date has ESS capabilities. This could be a key selling point for European fleet sales if they continue the feature in Cosmos.

[Wintermute @CryptoSDMark]

@LucidMotors

[Wintermute @CryptoSDMark]

@R1Stephanie @briandstone @Uber @nuro @doll_debbie Just curious, why is knowing the autonomy timeline important to you as an investor?

[Wintermute @CryptoSDMark]

I agree with what @doll_debbie already wrote. Additionally, this call was about Lucid's Must-Wins. All four are key to Lucid's survival and success. "FSD like" is not an immediate imperative.

FSD is a Tesla term. Its capabilities are widely misunderstood, and it's subject to numerous lawsuits. Level 2++ is a non-Tesla, industry shorthand term for FSD capabilities. Lucid already laid out a road map with NVIDIA for this in the near term for both Gravity and Cosmos. Lucid's goal is true autonomy. They have the necessary components included in the Cosmos design.

[Wintermute @CryptoSDMark]

But wait...There's more!

[Wintermute @CryptoSDMark]

@PhileasFoggs Then she acts like she is going to hit him in the face with the mic, reinforcing the fact that she doesn't deserve any respect.

[Wintermute @CryptoSDMark]

If you are financially disciplined, it makes more sense to invest the money in an age-appropriate mix than to pay off your mortgage early, as long as you also have a good buffer of readily available funds to weather a storm.
But being able to sleep well is more important. If the investment idea causes you stress, continue paying extra on your mortgage.

[Wintermute @CryptoSDMark]

@bowefamilyEV @ChinaEV_Eng_Lif @LucidMotors Sweet ride! How do you like it?

The Touring model likely has the space to accommodate the additional bulk required for LFP to maintain the same range, at a cost in additional weight.

[Wintermute @CryptoSDMark]

@ChinaEV_Eng_Lif @bowefamilyEV @LucidMotors Same-size LFP pack in the Gravity would drop range from ~440 to roughly 350 miles. Lucid’s whole pitch is range and efficiency, so high-nickel was a deliberate choice. LFP makes sense for a cheaper trim, not the Grand Touring.

[Wintermute @CryptoSDMark]

@Jerry49878419 @FinJourney In the three and a half years of owning one, I’ve never had a problem with service.
Lucid makes fantastic vehicles.

[Wintermute @CryptoSDMark]

Yes. I changed the tires on my '23 Air AWD at Discount Tire at 18,875 miles. They gave me a mileage credit for early wear of the Pirelli P Zeros. I switched to Michelin Pilot Sport All Season 4 tires. The car drove and rode better on the Michelins.
I had one Lucid Mobile service during the three-year lease for periodic maintenance. I had no problem or delay in scheduling in the San Diego area.