My posts and analyses are for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Always do your own research (DYOR) before making any investment decisions.
Chapter 3 🦄
Want WL? Stop asking. Start posting.
Make real content about UniPix - videos, art, threads, memes, articles - tag us and bring attention.
If you already have FCFS, strong contribution can upgrade you to WL.
New quest live.
https://t.co/r7CPG8WM92
Chapter 3 🦄
Want WL? Stop asking. Start posting.
Make real content about UniPix - videos, art, threads, memes, articles - tag us and bring attention.
If you already have FCFS, strong contribution can upgrade you to WL.
New quest live.
https://t.co/r7CPG8WM92
$2,300 profit from OpenClaw running on its own.
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I created the full guide, step-by-step. Free for the next 24 hours.
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📊 LIGHTER SHORT / LONG
I’ve been reading a lot over the last few days about how it’s supposedly a no-brainer to short LIGHTER right now.
Me and my guys still haven’t come to a clear conclusion on whether that reminds smart or not. For every short argument, there’s a counter-argument. I’ll break down what I’ve read and my thoughts on each point.
Personally, I’m staying put for now. I don’t want to turn a solid end-of-year case into a full-on reck just because of gambling impulses.
1. Lighter will dilute tokens by giving them to exchanges
Bullshit. You can tell this take is weak right away, because there hasn’t been a single announcement about it. On the last AMA, the founder said the initial listing would be DEX-only. That means any MM or exchange that wants tokens will have to buy them on the market. And that’s a mega bullish angle, not bearish.
2. The airdrop is huge
Agreed. The sell pressure will be real. Especially from ref farmers and early users.
I even found a tweet today from a guy who made two trades in the first month and is still top-200 in points.
I also know influencers with zero trades and thousands of points.
Counterpoint: if someone got so many points early that they stayed top-200 for a year with just 1.8m volume, then the team themselves could’ve taken 50% of the entire drop, or even more. Meaning you can already cut the expected sell pressure in half.
Add the fact that not everyone will sell, some people run thousands of wallets, and suddenly initial pressure could be 2–3x smaller than people expect.
3. Nobody needs Lighter. There’s Hyperliquid and ASTER
Are you serious? Who even compares ASTER to LIGHTER? A few months ago nobody knew what ASTER was. When I made my first post about it, people were laughing.
As for Hyperliquid - yes, it’s a unicorn. Best product I’ve seen in my entire crypto life.
But if you’ve actually used both platforms, I honestly don’t see how HL is clearly better. For me, LIGHTER feels cleaner, and there are no XPL-style manipulations.
Debatable take overall.
4. LIGHTER fees are tiny. They make no money
I won’t state this as a fact, but I’ve read that their main revenue comes from HFT traders, and the numbers were very impressive.
Plus, I’m sure LIGHTER has internal mechanics that generate profit. I won’t pretend to be smart here, but I’m confident it’s not just about fees.
Argument doesn’t hold.
5. The token is useless
Everyone says that until it does a 2–3x. Then they start buying.
Look around. How many people bought ASTER at $2+? And how many bought it at $0.20?
Exactly.
6. Hedging via Polymarket
My god, what a stupid idea. Someone invented some nonsense, and others picked it up.
That’s not hedging. That’s just a blind bet with zero information.
If you want to hedge, wait for the checker and do it on Binance with 0.5x leverage.
-------------------------------------------------
I’m not a LIGHTER maxi. From everything we can realistically analyze, the main risk is the size of the airdrop. Yes, it will be huge.
Last time I saw something like this was Hyperliquid and Plasma. But is that alone a reason to short at launch?
I’m not rushing. I’ve got points for a six-figure drop, and nuking that with an “OBVIOUS SHORT” worth a few hundred thousand dollars just feels like pure FOMO.
If the listing were today, I’d sell part of my ref allocation and just watch the rest play out.
Season 3 is already announced for December 29. I think the listing will happen there.
A couple of buyback announcements, staking boosters, slap a 10B FDV on it, 5x the metrics ASTER-style. Why not?
P.S. Maybe shorting is the obvious smart play. Meteor-style, straight down.
My point is simple: I don’t see any OBVIOUS short thesis for the loudest launch of the last 6 months.
Did I miss any arguments?
Let’s hear them.
We have an insane number of token launches expected in Q4
Lighter's LIGER - perps DEX
Monad's MONAD - most trending new L1
Solstice's SLX - Solana stablecoin app
Vultisig's VULT - AI agent wallet
Folks Finance's FOLKS - DeFi hub
PlayAI's PLAI - Zapier of crypto AI
Flying Tulip's FT - DEX on Sonic L1
Footballdotfun - sports prediction app
MegaETH's MEGA - fastest Ethereum L2
Aegis's AEG - Bitcoin-backed stablecoin protocol
Rainbow's RNBW - web3 wallet
USDai - Stablecoin protocol backed by AI credit on Arbitrum
Almanak's ALM - DeFi Agent Platform
Momentum's MMT - DEX native to Sui
Cap Money's CAP - innovative stablecoin
Fogo's FOGO - SVM L1 for trading
Kinetiq's KNTQ - HYPE liquid staking app
Besides the TGEs of Solstice, USDai, Cap, Aegis, MegaETH, and Fogo, all the other ones are officially confirmed by their teams to happen in Q4.
Airdrop farmers will eat well this quarter
Paradex’s looking really good here. If they do a TGE with a $1B FDV, each Point could be worth $0.70, which seems pretty realistic for a perp DEX doing $1B in daily organic volume
I think it’s a great time to position myself there and take advantage of the zero fees for retail
https://t.co/WmdZGw2UlC
clicking on variational @variational_io slow and steady 300k to 500k volume daily
plebs would rather troop fomo in when it’s late and go the hard mode, i choose the easy mode like i did with lighter @Lighter_xyz
already on bronze tier for 90 days and you can join me early
zero fees, loss refunds, tight spreads only on variational 🤝
https://t.co/k7EOenoBCt
Extended Points calculator:
- 2 seasons have been confirmed, we are still in S1.
- TGE H1 2026 (expected Q2), with 30% airdrop at TGE. you have at least 5 months left to earn points.
- I have assumed a total of 50m points & TGE in April.
- points are already being sold OTC at $3.
extreme bearish = exchange has had multiple failures, macro conditions are awful & we are in bear market.
extreme bullish = Extended being integrated into Revolut (the current C-suite are investors), multiple billions of volume per day, fees achieving >$150m annually.
you are not bullish enough, earn your points now.
Points for @extendedapp are out!
Only 217 points on my public wallet this week, traded less
Overall this would still be $1k+ if my prediction is correct
Extended is the only top DEX you can still farm relatively easy
Get on board: https://t.co/pw39Oh3rWa
Ref link advantages:
-Get a 10% discount on fees for your first $50M volume
-Get a 15% boost in points received