Market lizard

Larping 101

Market cycles observation

[Market lizard @CryptoTopCaller]

Game of investing is all about probabilities and placing bets with positive expectation.

Having a conviction means you know your bet has positive EV regardless of the outcome and volatility is just a impermanent deviation from the path your investment is expected to go through

[Market lizard @CryptoTopCaller]

Is the only bullish narrative nowadays "We are oversold and its time to accumulate thesis"?

[Market lizard @CryptoTopCaller]

This is strong belief loosely held btw. we are traders, not macro economists

[Market lizard @CryptoTopCaller]

Odds of US recession are pretty high imo. Consumer confidence index is at all time lows, oil prices above 100, potential contagion in private credit (although might not be fully systemic risk). Not the time to make bold investments yet. Touching grass

[Market lizard @CryptoTopCaller]

Odds of US recession are pretty high imo. Consumer confidence index is at all time lows, oil prices above 100, potential contagion in private credit (although might not be fully systemic risk). Not the time to make bold investments yet. Touching grass

[Market lizard @CryptoTopCaller]

Only questionable part is that they hold some cash in the banks. Those banks will most likely get liquidity from Fed if there is a risk of going busto

[ju @cartel_intern]

@CryptoTopCaller usdc is safe right?

[Market lizard @CryptoTopCaller]

Can $USDT lose its peg if shit really hits the fan? There are realistic scenarios where its somewhat very probable outcome

[Market lizard @CryptoTopCaller]

With private Credit crisis potentially causing financial contagion i would strongly advice you to think which kind of risk are we exposed to. Tether balance sheet is 9% secured private loans(to god knows who) and around 10% more volatile assets(crypto and metals)

[Market lizard @CryptoTopCaller]

With private Credit crisis potentially causing financial contagion i would strongly advice you to think which kind of risk are we exposed to. Tether balance sheet is 9% secured private loans(to god knows who) and around 10% more volatile assets(crypto and metals)

[Market lizard @CryptoTopCaller]

I guess downside volatility is going to spike retail interest more than low vol chop we had at the top in October

[Market lizard @CryptoTopCaller]

Really counterintuitive thing is happening right now. Crypto is surging on google trends and i see few people IRL talking about it it with BTC being down 50%

[Market lizard @CryptoTopCaller]

Really counterintuitive thing is happening right now. Crypto is surging on google trends and i see few people IRL talking about it it with BTC being down 50%

[Market lizard @CryptoTopCaller]

If there was ever time to get real altseason, it definitely would be now all things given

[Market lizard @CryptoTopCaller]

Ok, lets see what we have here.

Positive side:

1. End of QT in december

2. Sentiment close to multiyear lows by different metrics

3. Biggest altcoin liquidation event month ago

4. Potential weird stimmy check drop?

Negative side:

1) Potential timewise cycle top for Bitcoin

[Market lizard @CryptoTopCaller]

Stimmy checks and people automatically assume that they can prop up the market dramatically. While it has some merit, crypto market is 20x bigger than it was in 2020 and most people will actually use money for living needs not gambling. Still positive for alts though

[Market lizard @CryptoTopCaller]

@cartel_intern Statistically proven phenomenon. Bull markets are usually driven by innovation and new emerging narratives. When all the money was already put into new stuff and there is no pump, they start to desperately rotate into laggards and old dino assets from previous cycles

[Market lizard @CryptoTopCaller]

Not saying there is no bounce in Crypto, but $Zec running is absolutely the end of times type of signal. Literally nothing bullish about that

[Market lizard @CryptoTopCaller]

You can always rationalize on why things happen after they happen in the market. All im going to say

[fejau @fejau_inc]

Four year cycle doesn’t exist.

2018 cycle died when Powell hiked rates, QT tantrum blowup December 2018

2021 cycle died when Fed went on most aggressive hiking cycle ever

2025 were cutting rates and easing meaningfully

It was always macro and 4 year cycle idea was spurious

Thank you for your attention to this matter

[Market lizard @CryptoTopCaller]

@hamptonism Thats how you bring whole economy down. We finally found the way

[Market lizard @CryptoTopCaller]

What?

[Tree News @TreeNewsFeed]

*JPMORGAN TO ALLOW BITCOIN, ETHER AS COLLATERAL IN CRYPTO PUSH: BBG

[Market lizard @CryptoTopCaller]

6. Would actually not surprise me if we break the low of previous bear market on Ethereum. I would even rate the as more probable than not

[Market lizard @CryptoTopCaller]

Thoughts regarding the next bear market(when it happens):

1. If you think about destribution of coins and holder base, it is now heavily shifted towards people who dont have any real strong conviction or understanding of what crypto is

[Market lizard @CryptoTopCaller]

5. And the higher risk curve you go the more extended brutality of it might become. Do you really think there will be enough demand to defend the unwinding of institutional positioning on the way down for $ETH for example? I highly highly doubt it.