To put it in really simple terms don't long / buy bitcoin during the US (short or sell instead).
The amount is not significant if you are a hodler but not a day trader. More work will be done in coming weeks.
#BTC#Bitcoin#Trading#crypto#cryptocurrency
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Time advantage on trading Bitcoin hourly. There is an obvious pattern supported with a large amount of hourly data (N=44562, since 9/10/2017).
Best trading hour (UTC+8) :
LONG : 18:00-22:00pm, 2:00-7:00am
SHORT : 22:00-23:00pm, 7:00-13:00am
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There is a weak correlation between BTC weekly % change with US stock market weekly% change 1 week ago.
Therefore we can be monitoring the US stock market and estimate the direction of BTC the week after.
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The US stock market (Nasdaq composite, S&P500, Russell 2000) weekly % change has a correlation of 0.21, 0.19, 0.21 to next week's bitcoin price.
Where correlation ranges between -1 to 1. Having a correlation of 0.2 indicates a weak correlation between 2 price dataset.
🚩These are some useful indicators that I use for watching Bitcoin lows and entry (Thread) :
Bitcoin rainbow chart - $24000 done
Puell Multiple – $15740 not yet
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The concern right now is will the Fed raise the rates too much to cause a recession.
In a recession a stock market can drop up to 50-70%, which inevitably crypto can drop further. If the Fed deals with inflation well, another bull cycle could come along with the rise of rates.
Apart from above support, what to monitor now :
Fed rising the rates due to inflation (est. max 3.9% by the end of 2022)
Based on historical data rising rates does not necessarily cause the market to drop in 3-5 years terms, although it will cause a short term volatility.
If the market does not drop further and recovers, I am happy to buy at $20000 range, where alts like SOL are still -85% from its peak, very easy money to make.