compounded dividends

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

64.

As in 64 consecutive months with US core inflation above the Fed's 2% target.

The Fed has lost all credibility when it comes to fighting inflation.

Kevin Warsh talks a big game, but talk is cheap. The Fed should have hiked rates yesterday and ended QE.

[Barchart @Barchart]

Stock Market hits most expensive valuation in history, surpassing the Dot Com Bubble and the run-up to the Great Depression 🤯👀

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

HUGE jump in US PPI inflation:
Powered by an eye-popping 1.4% rise in April, nearly triple the 0.5% consensus, the annual rate has hit 6% (crushing the 4.8% consensus forecast).
Core PPI followed suit, surging 1% (vs. 0.3% expected), bringing annual core inflation to 5.2% (consensus was 4.3%).
While the mapping isn't 1:1, these numbers strongly suggest that higher consumer inflation is still coming through the pipeline.
#economy #markets #inflation

[Jim Bianco @biancoresearch]

The U.S. 30-Year Yield is now 5.03%.

It has only been higher for a handful of days in the last 19 years. And it is now just 8 basis points from a new 19-year high.

[Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders]

April PPI #inflation comes in hot at +1.4% m/m vs. +0.5% est. & +0.7% prior (revised up from +0.5%) … core +1.0% m/m vs +0.3% est. & +0.2% prior (revised up from +0.1%)

[Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders]

April PPI #inflation +6.0% y/y vs. +4.8% est. & +4.3% prior (revised up from +4.0%) … core +5.2% y/y vs. +4.3% est. & +4.0% (revised up from +3.8% prior)

[compounded dividends @CTums5]

@GenExDividend 3.1%. Low.

[Peter Schiff @PeterSchiff]

Here is a recap of the day. The dollar had one of its worst days ever. It lost over 2.3% against the euro and yen, and 3.9% against the Swiss franc.

Gold surged to another record high above $3,175, up more than $90 today and $100 yesterday.

Treasury bonds got clobbered with the yield on the 10-year rising to 4.43% and the yield on the 30-year rising to 4.88%.

The Dow fell 2.5%, the S&P 500 dropped 3.5%, the Russell 2000 and the NASDAQ tanked 4.3%, while gold stocks surged almost 5%, hitting new 52-week highs.

Oh, and for anyone who cares, Bitcoin fell 3.5% too.

Does this seem like we are winning the trade war?

[Diane Swonk @DianeSwonk]

What is stagflation?

A period of where economic growth slows to the point the unemployment rate rises, usually amidst a shock - tariffs count - and inflation also rises. It is unusual & requires different policies from the Fed than most are accustomed to.

The last bout of stagflation was the 1970s. That is what we are about to endure in 2025. The fact that the pandemic-induced inflation is still smoldering and has left a scar doesn’t help adds to that narrative.

What does the Fed do? It waits. It can’t offset the weakness to ward off or counter a recession like it normally might. It needs to know that inflation is coming down, will continue its descent and stay low before cutting.

If it cuts too soon, it risks a temporary bump to growth for a more lingering surge in inflation and long-term rise in unemployment. The cycle can take on a vicious nature and be prolonged if the Fed doesn’t hold the line on inflation.

This is the Fed’s worst nightmare. It know the stakes better than most. The Fed had to eat crow when inflation proved more persistent post pandemic. It can’t, nor can we, afford to repeat that & of the mistakes of the 1970s today.

Hence, so many in Fed leadership evoking 1970s as a cautionary tale.

Rock and hard place. Stuck in the middle. The Fed knows what some have forgotten - that was a horrific period.

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

The S&P 500 has fallen more than 12% since Trump's Liberation Day announcement.

The 10-year Treasury yield is slightly higher than it was before the announcement.

[Ed Bradford @Fullcarry]

Swap spread getting crushed again after the 3y auction which suggests to me it will be harder to fund our budget deficit going forward since we'll be relying on domestic funding which will require/demand higher rates

[Charles Gasparino @CGasparino]

BREAKING Markets are improving on less Lutnick and more Bessent. Expect more of it. Story developing

[Bill Ackman @BillAckman]

To state the obvious, it does not help our country’s and our president’s negotiating position to be trying to strike deals while our market is collapsing.

Whoever is recommending that idea to President @realDonaldTrump should be fired now.

[Bill Ackman @BillAckman]

The country is 100% behind the president on fixing a global system of tariffs that has disadvantaged the country. But, business is a confidence game and confidence depends on trust.

President @realDonaldTrump has elevated the tariff issue to the most important geopolitical issue in the world, and he has gotten everyone’s attention. So far, so good.

And yes, other nations have taken advantage of the U.S. by protecting their home industries at the expense of millions of our jobs and economic growth in our country.

But, by placing massive and disproportionate tariffs on our friends and our enemies alike and thereby launching a global economic war against the whole world at once, we are in the process of destroying confidence in our country as a trading partner, as a place to do business, and as a market to invest capital.

The president has an opportunity to call a 90-day time out, negotiate and resolve unfair asymmetric tariff deals, and induce trillions of dollars of new investment in our country.

If, on the other hand, on April 9th we launch economic nuclear war on every country in the world, business investment will grind to a halt, consumers will close their wallets and pocket books, and we will severely damage our reputation with the rest of the world that will take years and potentially decades to rehabilitate.

What CEO and what board of directors will be comfortable making large,
long-term, economic commitments in our country in the middle of an economic nuclear war?

I don’t know of one who will do so.

When markets crash, new investment stops, consumers stop spending money, and businesses have no choice but to curtail investment and fire workers.

And it is not just the big companies that will suffer. Small and medium size businesses and entrepreneurs will experience much greater pain. Almost no business can pass through an overnight massive increase in costs to their customers. And that’s true even if they have no debt, and, unfortunately, there is a massive amount of leverage in the system.

Business is a confidence game. The president is losing the confidence of business leaders around the globe. The consequences for our country and the millions of our citizens who have supported the president — in particular low-income consumers who are already under a huge amount of economic stress — are going to be severely negative. This is not what we voted for.

The President has an opportunity on Monday to call a time out and have the time to execute on fixing an unfair tariff system.

Alternatively, we are heading for a self-induced, economic nuclear winter, and we should start hunkering down.

May cooler heads prevail.

[Jimmy Sengenberger @SengCenter]

Conservatives need not apply to @JeffcoSchoolsCo?

A veteran teacher nails the interview, then gets shut out — because of politics.

Jeffco claims to be inclusive, but as I reveal @DenverGazette, that tolerance seems to stop at conservative values.

https://t.co/HeeBSWwuBV

"(T)he record reeks of political bias — if not retaliation — against a veteran teacher, sidelined over politics rather than merit. And let’s be honest: When the top lawyer for Colorado’s second-largest school district fumbles facts while deflecting discrimination claims, it’s not just a bad look — it signals a deeper question. Are qualified teachers being screened out for their political views?"

#copolitics #K12education #FreeSpeech #DEI

[Meghan McCain @MeghanMcCain]

Tom Hanks always wants to pretend he’s the likable everyman but he’s as hate mongering of regular Americans as any host on msnbc.

Good luck becoming less and less culturally relevant by the second bro.

[Heidi Ganahl @heidiganahl]

Thank you @libsoftiktok for getting the word out!

@JeffcoSchoolsCo board meeting tonight at 5, zoom in or attend live!

[Savanah Hernandez @Savsays]

Okay it’s time to ban Ye.

There are children on this platform and he’s posting hardcore porn. Not okay.

[Wall Street Apes @WallStreetApes]

I’ve never seen more disrespect for American law enforcement and ICE than in this video

Denver, Colorado residents screaming at the top of their lungs, cussing, telling American law enforcement to “Go back to Europe — get out of our f*cking community”

Deport Them ALL

[Libs of TikTok @libsoftiktok]

TOM HOMAN: “TdA [Tren de Aragua gang] is going to be eradicated from this country. I will not rest until every one of them are in prison or in GITMO! That’s a promise I make to the American people.”

🔥🔥🔥