CumberlandVol

Weekly vol commentary straight from the @CumberlandSays options desk. Not investment/trading advice. Disclaimer:

[CumberlandVol @CumberlandVol]

Some Canton news

[Cumberland @CumberlandSays]

Last month, we executed our first Canton Coin–settled OTC crypto option. Completed with Arrington Capital, the trade used Canton for collateral management and settlement, demonstrating the versatility of the Canton ecosystem. It was an exciting way to wrap 2025 and demonstrates our commitment to providing efficient, reliable liquidity solutions in the markets and structures that meet evolving counterparty demands.

And we endorse this sentiment from @arrington:  “We take pride in being part of the market’s evolution, and this trade reflects that spirit of progress. Collaborating with forward-thinking counterparties like Cumberland and Canton allows innovation in finance to turn innovation into tangible proof of what is possible.”

@CantonNetwork @Arrington_Cap

[CumberlandVol @CumberlandVol]

YouTube: https://t.co/h5zIeL67Ug

[CumberlandVol @CumberlandVol]

Our own Requir was featured in this week's Crypto Options Unplugged by Deribit.

TL;DR: Macro is screaming bullish, but crypto needs fresh narrative/momentum to catch up. 85k hold and 100K+ looks very real in Q1. Break it and 70K becomes the test.

[CumberlandVol @CumberlandVol]

*Large Trade Alert*

+300x CME (1,500x BTC) Nov 135k-145k call spreads
+300x CME (1,500x BTC) Dec 135k-150k call spreads

Similar flows on IBIT
IBIT Dec 70 / 80 call spread paid 1.77 for 8,500x live

[CumberlandVol @CumberlandVol]

Going forward, expect heavier hedging flows, choppier price action, and selective rebounds in beaten-down alts. Momentum is giving way to reflexivity — and for the first time in months, traders are paying attention again.

11/fin
https://t.co/kI222eyR7q

[CumberlandVol @CumberlandVol]

Vol Commentary – 2025 10 13

The Perfect Storm
The biggest market moves are never caused by macro news nor technical market structure alone. They happen when the two come together to form the perfect storm.

1/n

[CumberlandVol @CumberlandVol]

China remains the wild card. The Hang Seng Tech Index enters the week on a six-day losing streak, its worst run since April. A reprieve on the trade front could trigger a sharp rebound, particularly if domestic funds step in to stabilize prices. Still, sustained strength will depend on policy signals from Beijing and the PBOC’s willingness to lean against market stress. The US has little incentive to escalate before the November 1st tariff deadline, while China may prefer patience over confrontation. That dynamic should limit downside risk for sentiment in the near term. However, after last week’s shock, markets are demanding a higher volatility risk premium.

10/n

[CumberlandVol @CumberlandVol]

https://t.co/kI222ezoWY

[CumberlandVol @CumberlandVol]

Vol Commentary – 2025 10 08

Golden, golden, golden as I open my eyes
Golden, golden, golden as I open my eyes
Golden, golden, golden out in the sun
Golden, golden, golden out in the sun

1/n

[CumberlandVol @CumberlandVol]

The ETH DATS have been less impactful outside of BMNR, which is still averaging around 200k ETH/week. Market participants expect ETH to underperform BTC in the coming months as the stable coin narrative has cooled and debasement discussions picking up heading into year-end.

7/fin