Hey all. I published BTC cycle macro top and bottom indicators on TradingView. Check them out and let me know what you think.
Bitcoin (BTC) Top and Bottom indicators [Logue] - #BLX TradingView https://t.co/uhLN8wfkox
Crypto has a habit of making every analyst look silly sometimes. I truly thought we would sweep that high before lower. I'm convinced we will eventually take out the full liquidity trail ending at the high pictured (quoted post).
We are currently getting a soft trigger on BBI.
Dangerous to post during an active FUD-induced dump, but here goes:
For local price action (daily), I look for range high/low sweeps. We usually get at least a couple and then go the opposite direction. We haven't swept the current range highs yet, so I expect we go there soon.
[UPDATE: $GRAB]
If we get a pullback to about $3, I'll be DCAing some more $GRAB. We now have some nice bullish divergence on the SSI-2W. We also confirmed a SSI-1M "extreme low risk" trigger.
Added some $GRAB here in the MALAN zone. It is also triggering a SSI-1M low risk signal (unconfirmed). Only a small amount was added to my portfolio since it is somewhat of a slow mover.
BTW. I decided not to derisk yet. I feel it is soon time to have a bounce. CT is telling me that we retested some moving averages (I only use MAs when they support my biasπ). Once we finally bounce, I'll have to pay close attention to price action to figure out my next move.
Us bulls better hope we are running the Dec 22 to Apr 23 fractal (from the FTX low) or I don't know where the bleed will stop. I think we need to stay above about $70k since the start of bull markets don't get perfect retests. [A perfect retest would be about $66.5k.]
From what I'm seeing with the SSI/MALAN, Chinese stocks are setting up for a nice run. There is a SSI-1M trigger in the secondary MALAN zone on the $MCHI. Also, there is a SSI-2W bullish divergence. Multiple Chinese companies have individual charts telling me up soon as well.
I'm not in the business of calling tops. But $XOM is forming a bearish divergence on the SSI-1M with multiple high risk triggers. Doesn't mean that it cannot have another push higher in a few months. But, I'd expect a cool off and at least some time going sideways/down.
Getting some $BYDDF here. It has few SSI-1M triggers in the MALAN zone and now bullish divergence forming (unconfirmed). I think that is enough for me to add some here.
Got some more $JOBY here to average down with SSI-1M triggers below the MALAN zone. Going forward, I'm going to limit getting into these smaller-cap stocks on SSI-1M triggers in/below the MALAN zone. That should help avoid riding the elevator down a few more floors.
$JOBY (Joby Aviation) is hit the MALAN zone with an SSI-2W low risk trigger. It also may be coming in for the second leg of a double bottom, which is one of my favorite setups. So, I'm picking up a little bit here.
[UPDATE: $BSX]
Just a note that bullish divergence, along with SSI-1M triggers in the MALAN zone confirmed. I have DCAd this below and in the MALAN zone and am targeting the structure break at about $85. Would be a nice 2x.
[UPDATE: $BSX]
Have been DCAing a bit on $BSX underneath the MALAN zone. There have been multiple SSI-1M extreme low risk triggers near/in the MALAN zone and assuming it confirms, it will have a bullish divergence on the monthly.
Speaking of stocks. We have an unconfirmed weekly SSI trigger. These rarely happen and, if confirmed, could signal a good buying opportunity. In 2022 and 2026 we got multiple of these signals on the way down. So, the single weekly trigger doesn't always catch the exact bottom.
We have now tested the STH cost basis at about $75.7k. We got a small bounce from that area and are currently just above. If we start closing below, that would be my trigger to derisk and wait for some strength. I am starting to pair down alts that look bad now.
We are close to testing the short-term holder cost basis. If we close daily candles below, I will be derisking until I see strength. That doesn't mean 100% out. Will keep some exposure.
Stocks got a proper flush yesterday. I'm concerned they will ruin the crypto party for a while. To be clear, I still think the macro low is in at $60k.
[Update: $MRNA ]
$MRNA has been a monster. Currently it has triggered a SSI-1M "high risk" (unconfirmed). If you look at previous times, it paused and then continued until divergences were printed. So, I continue to hold my bag. I did take profit along the way...
$MRNA continues to deliver as probably my best trade of all time. It is up +132% today!
I'll probably take some profit here at the 0.618, but will see how it behaves first.
Getting some $UPST here. My favorite setup, with the SSI-1M triggering extreme low risk in the MALAN zone. The only better setup is bullish divergence as the cherry on top... and we have that on the SSI-2W.
If I was interested in $NFLX, I'd start adding some. It triggered a SSI-1M (low risk) in the secondary MALAN zone in Oct. For me, I'm going to wait until it goes into the primary MALAN zone, maybe around $50 to pick some up. If it doesn't go in, then I'm fine with letting it go.
We are close to testing the short-term holder cost basis. If we close daily candles below, I will be derisking until I see strength. That doesn't mean 100% out. Will keep some exposure.