Our last 8 hours of @afternic sales. Just after we turned boost off. Boost has zero relation to your sales. It's a made-up feature with nothing behind.
Turn if off and share this far and wide so domainers don't waste money in vain!
The truth will dismantle any monopoly.
How many domains do you need in your portfolio to be reasonably sure you'll sell at least one domain every year if your annual sell-through rate is 1%?
If you think the answer is 100, you're not alone.
After all, 1% of 100 is 1.
But that's not how probability works.
A 1% sell-through rate doesn't mean you'll definitely sell 1 domain for every 100 you own.
It means each domain has roughly a 1% chance of selling during the year.
Imagine buying 100 lottery tickets where each ticket has a 1% chance of winning.
The expected outcome is one winner. But there's still a surprisingly large chance that none of them win.
In fact, with 100 domains and a 1% STR, your chance of making at least one sale during the year is only about 63%.
To reach a 99% probability of at least one sale, you need roughly 459 domains.
To reach 99.9%, you need about 688.
That's why many experienced domain investors build portfolios containing hundreds or even thousands of domains.
It's not just about increasing the number of sales. It's about making sales more predictable.
The math behind it is:
Probability of at least one sale = 1 β (1 β STR)^N
Where:
STR = annual sell-through rate
N = number of domains
For a 1% STR:
1 β (0.99)^688 β 99.9%
So if your portfolio contains around 700 domains, the odds of going an entire year without a sale become extremely small.
Not impossible.
Just very, very unlikely.
On the other hand, if you "only" own a few hundred domains, don't be surprised if you go years without a sale.
Probability doesn't care about your expectations.
P.S. Quality of names matters too, of course.