CITADEL: JULY RESET THE BULL MARKET, NOT ENDED IT
Citadel's Scott Rubner says July's sharp selloff and sector rotation cleared out excessive positioning without breaking the broader bull market.
Retail investors turned net sellers, AI and semiconductor stocks were heavily sold, and leveraged ETF assets fell by more than $60B from their June peak.
"July did not change the structural bull market. It reset it," Rubner said, adding investors can now focus more on company fundamentals than positioning.
This sounds like a typical "Irish" joke, but it's true:
The Irish Government bought a new €53m jet.
And insisted on removing an Israeli-made navigational system.
Now it can't land in the fog 🤣🤣🤣
https://t.co/wgeBO3pfRW
Bessent Remembers 1998
Scott Bessent was in the room where it happened. In 2026, as Treasury secretary, he helped direct a joint U.S.-Japan intervention to support the yen after it plunged to a 40-year low, with Treasury signaling banks to stand ready and using the New York Fed as the market arm of the operation.
That move makes more sense when you remember where Bessent came from. He is not some Fed academic who discovered financial panic in a seminar room. He was at Soros Fund Management’s London office in the 1990s, when Soros attacked the Hong Kong peg and the Asian crisis began to metastasize through global markets.
That is the missing context the Street keeps ignoring. The LTCM collapse did not drop from the sky as a random failure of genius in Greenwich. It grew out of a chain of shocks: pressure on Asian pegs, then Russia’s default, then a violent scramble through credit and currency markets that broke every model built on stable correlations and liquid exits.
By September 1998, the Federal Reserve had gathered 14 firms to inject about $3.6 billion into Long-Term Capital Management to stop the damage from spreading.
So the through line is not subtle. Back then, Bessent was on the trading side, helping test the pegs and learning how quickly policymakers can weaponize rates and balance sheets.
Today he is on the official side, moving early to support the yen before another disorderly unwind turns into a modern LTCM.
Think about that for one minute, as the pedantic Wall Street pundits criticize, from a far.
Despite being a private citizen with no public health role, Bill Gates was involved in high-level COVID briefings and played a direct role in shaping America’s pandemic response.
I have spent about 10 minutes flipping through this, but wow, when did Bloomberg become the agitprop wing of the DSA?
First impressions (there may be more):
- Deferring not eliminating taxes isn’t the 0% they brazenly put in their graphic (they even modify the zero immediately in the explaining text to “near zero” which it’s also not — do they even have compliance there @MikeBloomberg?).
- Tom Steyer, give back all the money you apparently think you stole based on the carried interest exemption before you say a damn word (an exemption which hedge funds mostly don’t get btw: https://t.co/siEdgDThrM). Or were you just “following the law”? Does that reason work for everyone Tommy? Also, as a personal message from me to you, kiss my ass you desiccated 5x loser. You found you couldn’t suck up to the DSA enough to get elected huh, so you desperately try to stay relevant this way. Oh, and Morris Pearl, whoever the hell that is, late of Blackrock, with his Patriotic Millionaire bullshit (non-binding virtue signaling crap from mostly a bunch of vicious personal tax optimizers) might want to scroll here to find “long-short tax aware investing”: https://t.co/uq7CJmnJYc
- Lots of quotes out of context. As usual the left (and I’m talking to the left who both wrote and consume this BS) loves to take jokes and make them sound real when they don’t like someone invariable viewed as being on the other team (amazing they didn’t quote me saying there are “fine people” on both sides of the tax debate). When I wrote “only death is certain now” it was whimsical. But when your class enemies use whimsey you pretend it was real and attack right? Because you’re “journalists.” Also when you are honest with the world, as right or wrong anyone following me knows I have been for 35 years in this business, they make it a gotcha when I, on my own, share a funny self-deprecating story with the world. I joke about this one with self-deprecation (https://t.co/UJRHKvb8W0) but the “journalists” will seize on it like they ferreted it out like Woodward and Bernstein. Yeah, I punched a computer monitor, 18 years ago, and I’ve written about it and joked at my own expense (i.e., the monitor was embarrassingly unhurt). You guys got me good! The tattoo however is real. Got me. It’s going away though. That is not a fun process and they lie to you about how many painful sessions it will take. Kids, stay in school and don’t get tattoos.
- A subtle one. I gave kudos to him because I read Rob Arnott’s paper on taxes eating your alpha back in 1993 (when the NY Rangers had still gone 53 year without a Stanley Cup). They make it sound like I was a silent movie mustache twirling villain waiting 20-25 years since then to finally pounce. Again, journalism.
- Most importantly, the moral issue, and there is one here just not the one these MS NOW aspirants highlight, is that of working in your clients interests. We use the same pre-tax alpha models for all our investors, taxable and non-taxable (non-taxable is where we started and still manage > 100B). Now, if you manage for both, how do you not, within the law (and it’s well within the law for any administration despite that slimy backhanded quote), minimize or defer the tax burden on your taxable clients to the best of your abilities and still think you’re remotely acting in their interests? Remember post GFC when it was all the rage to insist managers act in their clients interests (we always did)? Apparently that’s suspended, and is actually immoral, when it’s a successful hedge fund manager managing for taxable people of means (and, again, pre-tax for pension funds and charitable endowments and mutual fund investors etc.).
Oh, and while most things you took out of context and with prejudice, which is shameful (do you think you are down the middle journalists?). The one you got right is my comments on Mamdani. In context. I take back not a word of that.
Otherwise you guys did really well.
https://t.co/K0mdRtSJdc