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BREAKING: The delinquency rate on Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) for offices surged +63 basis points in October, to a record 11.8%.
This is now over a full percentage point above the post-2008 Financial Crisis peak of 10.7%.
Since October 2022, the CMBS delinquency rate has skyrocketed +10 percentage points.
At the same time, the delinquency rate for multifamily CMBS jumped +53 basis points, to 7.1%, the highest since December 2015.
The overall US CMBS delinquency rate rose +23 basis points, to 7.46%, the highest in at least 4 years.
The commercial real estate crisis is worsening.
BREAKING: This Tuesday morning the BOJ intervened THREE TIMES ⚠️
- USD liquidity injections
- Offer of JGBs lending (daily)
- Offers of Securities (800bn JPY weekly)
BOJ “temporary” interventions number raises to 24 since the 29th of July
Narrator: going from bad to worse
Many times I posted SPX 1929-2000 trend and ~6100 as a limiter, but not many times I posted US10Y 100Y trend
You see 100Y trend (1942-1946-1950-1954) retest which happened in Oct23 (the moment TLT hit 82$ - that's why I think it's an ultimate bottom).
How we can interpret this retest if it's valid?
1/ Sustained US10Y 100Y trend break happened in ... December 2007
2/ The market was following a path towards something like Great Depression
3/ Miracle happened in 2020
4/ Explosive parabolic move in US10Y = growth & inflation from 2020 lows
5/ Market touched same moment as December 2007 in October 2023 but just as a RETEST to secular 100Y broken trend.
6/ SPX trend 1929-2000 hit its top channel too the same moment. If you think retesting US10Y 100Y trend and SPX 100Y channel is not important you are wrong.
7/ It's a make it or break it moment (US10Y=~5.0%) just like SPX ~6100 level.
Either it's a peak of everything or super secular prosperity is ahead of us.
I posted also a deeper look on the same US10Y chart which is in an interesting moment.
Don't forget it's how we finish (M) candle not how we start it.
This is insane:
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway just announced they now hold a record $334 BILLION in cash.
To put this into perspective, between Q1 2024 and Q4 2024, their cash balance rose a massive $145.2 BILLION.
What does Warren Buffett see here?
(a thread)
Ethereum sentiment is at rock bottom.
We’ve heard it all recently:
> L2s are parasitic to L1
> L1 can’t scale
> Vitalik isn’t a good leader
> We don’t need more L2s
> Ultrasound money was a lie
> EF is selling loads of ETH monthly
> The roadmap is off track
> No one knows how to value ETH
> The future of Ethereum is Coinbase
> SOL will flip ETH
When the consensus swings so aggressively in one way, it’s usually best to take the contrarian stance.
It’s time to be bullish on ETH, the asset, and L2s as the logical step in scaling the Ethereum ecosystem.
I’m not an Ethereum maxi by any means, and never will be. However, when you see sentiment like this, you have to think of the other side of the bet.
All things are lining up for a hated rally.