Daniel Gulti Kebede

@DanielGulti

Visiting Assistant Professor @colgateuniv| Interested in Applied Econometrics, Macroeconomics and Development Economics| PhD @LifeAtPurdue

Hamilton, NY

Joined February 2020

221 Following

99 Followers

373 Posts

Daniel Gulti Kebede @DanielGulti

about 1 month ago

Well deserved 👏

Gianluca Violante @glviolante

about 1 month ago

Once again, I am extremely grateful to the @econometricsoc for the Frisch Medal, which I received yesterday together with my stellar coauthors @NiklasEngbom and @Simon_Mongey in the picture with me. We missed @AdrienBilal who could not make it to Dublin!

glviolante's tweet photo. Once again, I am extremely grateful to the @econometricsoc for the Frisch Medal, which I received yesterday together with my stellar coauthors @NiklasEngbom and @Simon_Mongey in the picture with me. We missed @AdrienBilal who could not make it to Dublin! https://t.co/Zgo8BolpFo

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Daniel Gulti Kebede @DanielGulti

2 months ago

@uttdkola Mesut Ozil

Daniel Gulti Kebede @DanielGulti

4 months ago

@Footballtweet Pablo Aymara!

Daniel Gulti Kebede @DanielGulti

4 months ago

@_onlyscott Anelka

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Who to follow

Florian Oswald 🇪🇺 🇺🇦

@FlorianOswald

Associate Prof @unito @EconomicsUnito, @CollegioCA on leave from @ScPoEcon. Labor, Urban, Macro, Computation. Data Editor @JPolEcon. Find me on bluesky.

Chuxin Liu

@ChuxinLiu

AI & Model Risk at JPMorganChase. tweets are on my own

Aranya Chakraborty

@aranyacecon

Assistant Professor @AMSOM_Ahmedabad @AhdUniv | PhD in Economics from @mcgillu | Development, Information, Applied Micro| RT ≠ Endorsement. #EconTwitter

Daniel Gulti Kebede @DanielGulti

4 months ago

@jmwooldridge Prof Wooldridge I have known your Arsenal fandom for awhile now! Actually, during my PhD days, I managed to recruit few students by using your good name 😅

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Daniel Gulti Kebede @DanielGulti

5 months ago

@piersmorgan @LTrossard @LTrossard is the clutchiest Arsenal player I have seen in my life time❤️

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Daniel Gulti Kebede @DanielGulti

5 months ago

@piersmorgan Can you believe they didn’t consider him for the player of the season award?

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Daniel Gulti Kebede @DanielGulti

5 months ago

@TomCantonMedia Especially Stewart Robson is a charlatan.. I can’t understand his venomous hatred against Arsenal. He has been super disrespectful to Arsene and now he speaks about assaulting Arteta live on air. This is very disappointing given the club gave him a career :(

Daniel Gulti Kebede @DanielGulti

6 months ago

@piersmorgan @_DeclanRice @_DeclanRice song should be modified to..”Declan rice, we got him for one-tenth the price”. @_DeclanRice making us dream, like we have never dreamt before 🙏

Daniel Gulti Kebede @DanielGulti

7 months ago

@AJEnglish Jose Mourinho just used the equivalent of “I have a black friend and I can’t be racist” claim to defend Benfica player and fans being labeled racist.

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DanielGulti retweeted

now.arsenal

@now_arsenaI

8 months ago

🚨Well respected journalist Guillem Balague speaking on Arsenal… you’re going to want to read this! “Let me tell you what everyone is saying about Arsenal across Europe. “Arsenal are not seen here as a team that has stalled. They are seen as a reference point. As the team many look at when trying to understand where elite football is heading. “The game has shifted, it is no longer enough to dominate the ball or to attack well. The top sides now compete in, and often decide matches through, the four phases that make teams excellent: organised attack, attacking transition, defensive transition and structured defence. At the highest level, those phases matter more than possession percentages or aesthetic debates. “This is where Arsenal stand out. “Under Mikel Arteta, Arsenal control space, time and another very important element, rhythm. They are aggressive without being chaotic, but can create chaos to find gaps, they are compact without being passive. Their pressing is prepared in detail, lose the ball and the reaction is immediate. The opponent is denied oxygen. “Across Europe, this is understood as modern dominance. “The key battleground today is transition. Not what you do with the ball, but what happens the instant you lose it. Defensive rhythm has overtaken offensive rhythm. Space is smaller and time is shorter. The teams that survive are the ones that arrive first, win duels, plus reset order before danger appears. “Arsenal do this as well as anyone. “In Europe, Arsenal are seen as a team that has absorbed Guardiola’s ideas and pushed them forward, they have strengthened them for a football world that now plays faster, presses harder, and it totally punishes hesitation. “At the very moment Arsenal are being questioned at home, they are being analysed as a model. “Progress is often uncomfortable and it rarely moves in straight lines. Arsenal don’t look lost. In my eyes they look early!”

now_arsenaI's tweet photo. 🚨Well respected journalist Guillem Balague speaking on Arsenal… you’re going to want to read this!

“Let me tell you what everyone is saying about Arsenal across Europe.

“Arsenal are not seen here as a team that has stalled. They are seen as a reference point. As the team many look at when trying to understand where elite football is heading.

“The game has shifted, it is no longer enough to dominate the ball or to attack well. The top sides now compete in, and often decide matches through, the four phases that make teams excellent: organised attack, attacking transition, defensive transition and structured defence. At the highest level, those phases matter more than possession percentages or aesthetic debates.

“This is where Arsenal stand out.

“Under Mikel Arteta, Arsenal control space, time and another very important element, rhythm. They are aggressive without being chaotic, but can create chaos to find gaps, they are compact without being passive. Their pressing is prepared in detail, lose the ball and the reaction is immediate. The opponent is denied oxygen.

“Across Europe, this is understood as modern dominance.

“The key battleground today is transition. Not what you do with the ball, but what happens the instant you lose it. Defensive rhythm has overtaken offensive rhythm. Space is smaller and time is shorter. The teams that survive are the ones that arrive first, win duels, plus reset order before danger appears.

“Arsenal do this as well as anyone.

“In Europe, Arsenal are seen as a team that has absorbed Guardiola’s ideas and pushed them forward, they have strengthened them for a football world that now plays faster, presses harder, and it totally punishes hesitation.

“At the very moment Arsenal are being questioned at home, they are being analysed as a model.

“Progress is often uncomfortable and it rarely moves in straight lines. Arsenal don’t look lost. In my eyes they look early!”

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DanielGulti retweeted

Jon Hartley

@Jon_Hartley_

8 months ago

Fed Chair Jay Powell spoke about survey-based r-star measures from the @NewYorkFed Survey of Market Expectations at today’s FOMC Press Conference: “if you look at the dealer survey, it was 10/58 who were at or above” the current policy rate in terms of their estimate of r-star.

DanielGulti retweeted

Jesús Fernández-Villaverde

@JesusFerna7026

8 months ago

Olivier Blanchard (@ojblanchard1) had a provocative post yesterday about a higher preference of French people for leisure: https://t.co/d8eSlXs6Y0 I have learned nearly an infinite amount of economics from Olivier since I was an undergrad, and he came to Spain to present a report on our unemployment problem, so I feel a bit intimidated about pushing back on this idea. I am perfectly happy with the idea that preferences are heterogeneous: some people like leisure more than others. And the goal of economic policy should never be to maximize output, but to maximize welfare. If most people in France enjoy sitting in the beautiful sun of Provence while productivity increases, who am I to question their wisdom? But perhaps one of the aspects of economics that I have always felt uneasy about is how little effort we have put into exploring the extent to which preferences are endogenous. Let me borrow from an old idea of Gary Becker and Kevin M. Murphy (1988) in their classic “A Theory of Rational Addiction,” a beautiful piece of work all students of economics should read. Becker and Murphy consider a model with two consumption goods: one that requires “consumption capital” to be enjoyed and one that does not. Think about fine wine: it takes some time and experience to truly enjoy a good bottle. In comparison, every kid enjoys candy on first taste, no experience required (nor much is gained from repeated tastings). How much an agent invests in “consumption capital” determines whether increases in consumption of the first good in the past will lead to higher consumption of that good in the future. Many leisure activities belong to the former group, not the latter: going to the Opera, appreciating fine food, discovering the charming streets of a world-class city, ... Based on that observation, let me extend Becker and Murphy’s framework to the work-leisure choice by introducing the notion of “leisure capital.” Imagine a situation where, in France, taxes on labor income were high (or, equivalently, wages were lower than they should have been because of misallocation). This made leisure activities preferable in the past because their relative price was low (let’s assume the income effect was small), leading to an increase in the “leisure capital” of the French today and, therefore, in how French society takes advantage of increases in productivity. Now, one could argue that this reasoning is a hyper-sophisticated form of rationality that does not resemble reality. But I have seen this phenomenon at a micro level: very rich people who made their own fortunes are often not very good at enjoying leisure, but their kids are extremely good at it, because they accumulated plenty of “leisure capital” when they were young. More seriously, other observers of society would have found the reasoning natural, because there is a long tradition of analyzing labor supply decisions as embedded in social relations. Let us start with Karl Marx. In historical materialism, consciousness follows the forces of production. When the forces of production generate a lower labor supply (for whatever reason), consciousness will follow through the multiple channels of the superstructure, starting with the creations of the culture industry that favor leisure. Having delightful bistros is an epiphenomenon of a deeper structure of relations of production. In the opposite direction, E.P. Thompson, also from a Marxist perspective (though less orthodox), emphasized that the factory system required clock-based discipline and, therefore, that within a generation or two of the Industrial Revolution, punctuality became a cardinal virtue. Just reverse E.P. Thompson’s analysis. And Émile Durkheim, with his view of how social facts shape the division of labor in society, might have agreed as well. For Durkheim, social facts are “every way of acting which is general throughout a given society, while at the same time existing in its own right, independent of its individual manifestations.” In this perspective, the French have absorbed a particular relationship to work through decades of participation in French economic life, which is not divorced from taxes and regulations. Of course, one could reply that it might be the preferences for leisure that are behind higher taxes and regulations. For example, you can use regulations to move to a better coordination equilibrium: you do not want to take vacations if your spouse at another firm cannot take a vacation at the same time. This is what Max Weber would have called an elective affinity (Wahlverwandtschaft) of leisure and taxes. But that reply only reinforces my point that we probably want to think about preferences and economic policy as a simultaneous system, more than one driving the other. The practical implication is that policy reforms may have effects far beyond what an analysis that takes preferences as given would suggest. If decades of high taxes built up “leisure capital” in France (which fits perfectly with Olivier’s observation that the French are better at leisure), lowering taxes tomorrow will not instantly undo that accumulation. Preferences have their own inertia. But by the same token, sustained policy changes can, over time, reshape what people want, not just what they can afford. The real problem with all this reasoning, though, is that it makes welfare analysis a nightmare! I will leave that task to someone smarter than me.

JesusFerna7026's tweet photo. Olivier Blanchard (@ojblanchard1) had a provocative post yesterday about a higher preference of French people for leisure:

https://t.co/d8eSlXs6Y0

I have learned nearly an infinite amount of economics from Olivier since I was an undergrad, and he came to Spain to present a report on our unemployment problem, so I feel a bit intimidated about pushing back on this idea.

I am perfectly happy with the idea that preferences are heterogeneous: some people like leisure more than others. And the goal of economic policy should never be to maximize output, but to maximize welfare. If most people in France enjoy sitting in the beautiful sun of Provence while productivity increases, who am I to question their wisdom?

But perhaps one of the aspects of economics that I have always felt uneasy about is how little effort we have put into exploring the extent to which preferences are endogenous.

Let me borrow from an old idea of Gary Becker and Kevin M. Murphy (1988) in their classic “A Theory of Rational Addiction,” a beautiful piece of work all students of economics should read.

Becker and Murphy consider a model with two consumption goods: one that requires “consumption capital” to be enjoyed and one that does not. Think about fine wine: it takes some time and experience to truly enjoy a good bottle. In comparison, every kid enjoys candy on first taste, no experience required (nor much is gained from repeated tastings).

How much an agent invests in “consumption capital” determines whether increases in consumption of the first good in the past will lead to higher consumption of that good in the future. Many leisure activities belong to the former group, not the latter: going to the Opera, appreciating fine food, discovering the charming streets of a world-class city, ...

Based on that observation, let me extend Becker and Murphy’s framework to the work-leisure choice by introducing the notion of “leisure capital.”

Imagine a situation where, in France, taxes on labor income were high (or, equivalently, wages were lower than they should have been because of misallocation). This made leisure activities preferable in the past because their relative price was low (let’s assume the income effect was small), leading to an increase in the “leisure capital” of the French today and, therefore, in how French society takes advantage of increases in productivity.

Now, one could argue that this reasoning is a hyper-sophisticated form of rationality that does not resemble reality. But I have seen this phenomenon at a micro level: very rich people who made their own fortunes are often not very good at enjoying leisure, but their kids are extremely good at it, because they accumulated plenty of “leisure capital” when they were young.

More seriously, other observers of society would have found the reasoning natural, because there is a long tradition of analyzing labor supply decisions as embedded in social relations.

Let us start with Karl Marx. In historical materialism, consciousness follows the forces of production. When the forces of production generate a lower labor supply (for whatever reason), consciousness will follow through the multiple channels of the superstructure, starting with the creations of the culture industry that favor leisure. Having delightful bistros is an epiphenomenon of a deeper structure of relations of production.

In the opposite direction, E.P. Thompson, also from a Marxist perspective (though less orthodox), emphasized that the factory system required clock-based discipline and, therefore, that within a generation or two of the Industrial Revolution, punctuality became a cardinal virtue. Just reverse E.P. Thompson’s analysis.

And Émile Durkheim, with his view of how social facts shape the division of labor in society, might have agreed as well. For Durkheim, social facts are “every way of acting which is general throughout a given society, while at the same time existing in its own right, independent of its individual manifestations.” In this perspective, the French have absorbed a particular relationship to work through decades of participation in French economic life, which is not divorced from taxes and regulations.

Of course, one could reply that it might be the preferences for leisure that are behind higher taxes and regulations. For example, you can use regulations to move to a better coordination equilibrium: you do not want to take vacations if your spouse at another firm cannot take a vacation at the same time. This is what Max Weber would have called an elective affinity (Wahlverwandtschaft) of leisure and taxes. But that reply only reinforces my point that we probably want to think about preferences and economic policy as a simultaneous system, more than one driving the other.

The practical implication is that policy reforms may have effects far beyond what an analysis that takes preferences as given would suggest. If decades of high taxes built up “leisure capital” in France (which fits perfectly with Olivier’s observation that the French are better at leisure), lowering taxes tomorrow will not instantly undo that accumulation. Preferences have their own inertia. But by the same token, sustained policy changes can, over time, reshape what people want, not just what they can afford.

The real problem with all this reasoning, though, is that it makes welfare analysis a nightmare! I will leave that task to someone smarter than me.

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Daniel Gulti Kebede @DanielGulti

9 months ago

@piersmorgan Martinelli didn’t know Bradley is seriously injured.. all he saw is Bradley rolling back onto the field.

Daniel Gulti Kebede @DanielGulti

9 months ago

Congrats ��

Stefanie Stantcheva @S_Stantcheva

9 months ago

What an extraordinary honor to receive the 2025 John Bates Clark Medal from the @AEAInformation yesterday at #ASSA2026 & be able to express my gratitude for the generosity of so many who embody the positive-sum spirit. I hope to keep contributing to this community I admire deeply

S_Stantcheva's tweet photo. What an extraordinary honor to receive the 2025 John Bates Clark Medal from the @AEAInformation yesterday at #ASSA2026 & be able to express my gratitude for the generosity of so many who embody the positive-sum spirit. I hope to keep contributing to this community I admire deeply https://t.co/fMboijIVWW

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DanielGulti retweeted

Arsenal

@Arsenal

9 months ago

In the company of Arsenal legends 🤩 Martin Keown and Patrick Vieira join us on Live From N5 ❤️

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Daniel Gulti Kebede @DanielGulti

9 months ago

Titi ❤️

BBC Sport

@BBCSport

10 months ago

"You are Mr Arsenal. I love you!" ❤️ These famous Gunners fans and players couldn't wait to send their congratulations to Thierry Henry! The Frenchman will receive the lifetime achievement award at BBC Sports Personality of the Year 2025.