0xDH

Finding out all the factors of reality.
Seeking the METAGAME of market.

[單身狗投資成長日記 @singledoggyyyy]

陸大所說有些道理，但個人並不完全贊同。

手機單價低，降價效果不如車子。汽車價格彈性高，價格變化一倍，需求變化可以是十倍。

蘋果自己不製造手機。特斯拉自己製造車子。當產能超過需求時，特斯拉不降價而讓產能閒置，或是累積一堆庫存，這樣真的會比較賺錢？如果再考慮往後 FSD 營收和數據的蒐集，我認為降價多賣車的好處還是更大。

今年特斯拉獲利的確不如人意，下半年財報也不用期待有什麼好表現，但今年遇到的問題不降價也無法解決，反而很可能更糟。

法拉利等高價豪車追求的是精品路線，價高量少，但特斯拉的目標是加速世界轉向永續能源。馬斯克在 2006 年的Master Plan 就講過，第一步是造跑車，第二步是用賣跑車的錢去造負擔得起的車，第三步是用那些錢再去造更便宜的車。

特斯拉目標本來就不是搶什麼全球車廠營收份額，而是��日將路上的燃油車替換成電動車。

陸大說特斯拉今年自殘大降價，其實不是很正確。早年的 Model S/X 是現在雙倍價格，價格調整不是今年才有。如果仍是當年的價格，銷量肯定會少很多，陸大今年買 Model S 時要掏出雙倍的錢也不會比較開心。

買車後過不久就降價，換作我心裡也不是滋味。不過就像買其他東西，買賣是你情我願，賣家之後降價買家也不能要求人家退款，不然人家漲價你要補差額給他嗎？

特斯拉漲價降價至少都是公開透明。跟傳統車廠經銷商業務在那邊搞老半天，也不知道自己是不是被當盤子買得比別人貴，或者像美國經銷商在 MSRP 上還加一堆奇怪的 markup 高價賣給你，這樣還真���比較好。

PS. 作為股東我知道特斯拉現在的確有遇到困難，不過對公司長期發展倒沒有什麼疑慮。如果擔憂短期的股東可以透過加減碼或操作選擇權避險甚至獲利。

[股市駱哥 @edwardlo3793]

今天一堆數字miss，遞延，明天刺激啦

[Paul Graham @paulg]

But although not every big winner will have "AI" in the name of the company, practically every company they see, both winners and losers, will have "AI" in their deck. Using it is an easy claim to make. Random consumers are using it.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Excited to announce that I’ve hired a new CEO for X/Twitter. She will be starting in ~6 weeks!

My role will transition to being exec chair & CTO, overseeing product, software & sysops.

[Trader Jay @TraderJay68]

通膨下降的比預期快
聯準會鴿聲響起
官員紛紛轉孬
美國再次偉大
美股重返榮耀
納斯達克17000點

以上是我幻想的劇本
喜歡可以按讚喔

[Trader Jay @TraderJay68]

跌不下去也漲不上去，等後天凌晨FMG財報?

[Trader Jay @TraderJay68]

多���爽了一季，換空軍開始大聲了🤣

[Puru Saxena @saxena_puru]

List of some growth stocks which are either consolidating above their 30wk ema in STAGE 1 base or have already transitioned to STAGE 2 -

$ADYEY $CFLT $FOUR $GLBE $MBLY $MELI $MNDY $NET $NU $ONON $SHOP $SOFI

*These aren't recommendations, do your own DD

[Gavin Baker @GavinSBaker]

1) This is nothing like 2000.

Valuations for tech peaked in 2020.

At the 2020 peak on a cap weighted basis, the 10 largest tech companies in the Nasdaq traded at a 44% discount to the largest tech companies at the 2000 peak using NTM EPS and 58% discount using LTM EPS.

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

Biggest market puzzles
1. If global growth is so strong, why are oil prices flat?
2. Why no China reopening lift to commodity prices?
3. Why are yield curves inverted if there's no recession?
4. Why do so many people want to be long Euro?
5. Why has Fed pivot not lifted S&P 500?

[Michael Burry Stock Tracker ♟ @burrytracker]

Breaking: Michael Burry has again deleted his account after tweeting the word “Sell”

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

The November CPI isn't likely to alter the Fed's anticipated 50-basis-point hike Wednesday

But two months of moderating price pressures could complicate deliberations over how much more to raise rates early next year and how long to hold them there https://t.co/B5YRsVeIhY

[Trader Jay @TraderJay68]

這兩天是今年最後一次CPI和FOMC。

我是會先空手，等數據公布之後再找機會建倉。

其實我是猜這兩天行情應該沒有延續性，不會超過粉紅色神秘三角洲。

反正上緣壓力我是看4090，下緣看3955。

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Entering Twitter HQ – let that sink in!

[Jordan Schneider @jordanschneider]

THREAD: The US government's new export controls are wreaking havoc on China's chip industry.

New rules around "US persons" are driving an "industry-wide decapitation."

[Gavin Baker @GavinSBaker]

1) Great Charlie McElligott note this AM.

Cleveland Fed Nowcast CPI strength through 9/13 is most ironically a catalyst for further USD strength.

“Everything else is an emerging market” as we effectively export our inflation problem to solve it.

A MS chart on the topic:

[Gavin Baker @GavinSBaker]

1) Next two weeks important for rest of the year IMO.

In June, tech companies, especially at BaML, largely told investors that fundamentals were still good. This commentary was ignored on the reasonable logic that the companies just hadn’t seen it yet and it was coming.

[Hsaka @HsakaTrades]

Some of the interns best work

[Bill Ackman @BillAckman]

Every headline is about soaring inflation.

[Lake Cornelia Research Management @CorneliaLake]

$SPY

17x P/E but $TSLA + $NVDA + $AMZN drive 2.7x of that.

The 490 stocks outside the top 10 have a 11.8x P/E (probably 13-15x on real estimates)