MD Umar

Writer | Political & Economic Analyst
Nigerian & African Affairs | Geopolitics | Policy
I analyse power, policy and the political economy behind the headlines

[MD Umar @DanUmar68]

Politics is about who holds power, who decides, who benefits—and who pays.

I write on Nigeria, Africa, geopolitics, policy and political economy.

I don’t repeat power’s narrative. I interrogate it.

Follow the budget. Scrutinize the spending. Look beyond the headline.

MD Umar

[MD Umar @DanUmar68]

Stop harassing Nigerians. Dashboard economic indicators which Tinubu government kept referring to as evidence of reforms success aren’t anything but paper sacks. Nigerians do not live on Dashboard, those numbers don’t put dinner on the table.

[TheCable @thecableng]

SUNDAY DARE: "Atiku’s attempt to position himself as the “smart student” teaching economic policy falls apart under even light scrutiny. First, it is sheer absurdity that a man who graduated from a school of hygiene dares to call a first-class accounting graduate a dull student. Second, @atiku’s proposal for a blanket “production subsidy” is not an alternative economic model—it is a dangerous mathematical fantasy wrapped in political deceit. Unhinged, Atiku Abubakar arrogantly claims that President Tinubu copied his economic homework while stripping away the core element that makes it work: the “production subsidy.” But let us examine the actual numbers that Atiku deliberately conceals from the Nigerian public. As coordinating minister of the economy and minister of finance Taiwo Oyedele clearly articulated on Channels TV, Nigeria currently produces about 1.8 million barrels of crude oil per day (bpd) for a population of over 200 million people. Simplistic populists like Atiku deliberately deceive citizens by pretending that the Federal Government directly owns all 1.8 million barrels and can distribute or discount them at will."

https://t.co/Eu66UN4HGc

[MD Umar @DanUmar68]

THE SUBSIDY U-TURN: WHEN THE PEOPLE’S SUFFERING BECOMES A POLITICAL PROBLEM

FIRST, THEY SAID SUBSIDY WAS UNTHINKABLE. NOW, THEY ARE OFFERING 30 DAYS OF FUEL RELIEF. WHAT CHANGED?

When Atiku Abubakar of the ADC proposed restoring fuel subsidy, the Tinubu administration and its allies attacked the idea as retrogressive, economically unsound and politically opportunistic. The government defended subsidy removal as a necessary reform. Nigerians were told to endure the adjustment.

Then came the announcement: a 30-day petrol discount at NNPC retail stations.

The government insists this is not a return to subsidy. Finance Minister Taiwo Oyedele says NNPC Retail will forgo its profit margin and sell petrol at cost during the intervention. That distinction matters. But so does the political contradiction.

If temporary relief is now necessary, why was the demand for relief treated as economic heresy when it came from the opposition?

It is obvious that the government introduced this measure specifically because it feared Atiku’s growing appeal. But with the 2027 election approaching, the political implications are unavoidable: fuel prices are not merely an economic indicator. They are a daily measure of how government policy is experienced by millions.

For workers, traders, transport operators and small businesses, petrol prices travel through the entire economy. They affect transport fares, food distribution, production costs and the price of keeping a household running.

The consequences are not abstract. They arrive at the bus stop, the market, the workshop and the family dinner table.

This is where the subsidy debate becomes a question of class.

Those with substantial assets and multiple income streams may have greater capacity to absorb price shocks. Those living on wages or precarious informal earnings have far less room to manoeuvre. They cannot simply suspend eating, commuting or paying rent until the economy stabilises. This is the economic reality the government stunningly refused to acknowledge in its decision to remove subsidies.

The Tinubu administration must face concrete questions: Why is the relief limited to 30 days? How much will consumers actually save? How will the benefit reach transport passengers and food buyers? And what happens when the discount expires?

But the political lesson is clear: a policy defended as unavoidable can become negotiable when its social consequences become impossible to ignore.

The real test is not which politician claims ownership of relief.

It is whether public policy can protect living standards transparently, sustainably and fairly.

Because Nigerians should not have to wait for an election season before their suffering receives serious attention.

The question is no longer simply whether subsidy should return.

It is this:

WHY MUST RELIEF BE TEMPORARY WHEN THE HARDSHIP IS CONTINUOUS?

Follow the policy. Follow the interests. Follow who pays.

[MD Umar @DanUmar68]

THE SUBSIDY U-TURN: WHEN THE PEOPLE’S SUFFERING BECOMES A POLITICAL PROBLEM

FIRST, THEY SAID SUBSIDY WAS UNTHINKABLE. NOW, THEY ARE OFFERING 30 DAYS OF FUEL RELIEF. WHAT CHANGED?

When Atiku Abubakar of the ADC proposed restoring fuel subsidy, the Tinubu administration and its allies attacked the idea as retrogressive, economically unsound and politically opportunistic. The government defended subsidy removal as a necessary reform. Nigerians were told to endure the adjustment.

Then came the announcement: a 30-day petrol discount at NNPC retail stations.

The government insists this is not a return to subsidy. Finance Minister Taiwo Oyedele says NNPC Retail will forgo its profit margin and sell petrol at cost during the intervention. That distinction matters. But so does the political contradiction.

If temporary relief is now necessary, why was the demand for relief treated as economic heresy when it came from the opposition?

It is obvious that the government introduced this measure specifically because it feared Atiku’s growing appeal. But with the 2027 election approaching, the political implications are unavoidable: fuel prices are not merely an economic indicator. They are a daily measure of how government policy is experienced by millions.

For workers, traders, transport operators and small businesses, petrol prices travel through the entire economy. They affect transport fares, food distribution, production costs and the price of keeping a household running.

The consequences are not abstract. They arrive at the bus stop, the market, the workshop and the family dinner table.

This is where the subsidy debate becomes a question of class.

Those with substantial assets and multiple income streams may have greater capacity to absorb price shocks. Those living on wages or precarious informal earnings have far less room to manoeuvre. They cannot simply suspend eating, commuting or paying rent until the economy stabilises. This is the economic reality the government stunningly refused to acknowledge in its decision to remove subsidies.

The Tinubu administration must face concrete questions: Why is the relief limited to 30 days? How much will consumers actually save? How will the benefit reach transport passengers and food buyers? And what happens when the discount expires?

But the political lesson is clear: a policy defended as unavoidable can become negotiable when its social consequences become impossible to ignore.

The real test is not which politician claims ownership of relief.

It is whether public policy can protect living standards transparently, sustainably and fairly.

Because Nigerians should not have to wait for an election season before their suffering receives serious attention.

The question is no longer simply whether subsidy should return.

It is this:

WHY MUST RELIEF BE TEMPORARY WHEN THE HARDSHIP IS CONTINUOUS?

Follow the policy. Follow the interests. Follow who pays.

[MD Umar @DanUmar68]

Stay on the issues — the economy, the insecurity and foreign policy.

[Bayo Onanuga, OON, CON @aonanuga1956]

Atiku suffering from Agitated Depression

It is now very obvious that Atiku Abubakar @atiku is a pained and very bitter fellow. The pain and bitterness stems from the fact that he feels President Bola Ahmed Tinubu @officialABAT finally outsmarted him politically to get the most coveted position of President and he can’t mentally deal with this fact. What we are witnessing with all his recent tantrums against Mr. President, veiled as opposition heroics, is actually a higher form of DEPRESSION in the field of mental health called AGITATED DEPRESSION.

Recall that President Bola Tinubu was Governor of Lagos State at a time when he was Vice-President of Nigeria and was generally regarded as politically ahead of President Tinubu in the pecking order of those who aspired to be President. This is not a forum to restate the political journey these two eminent politicians embarked upon when both left their offices as Vice President and Governor in 2007, both in union sometimes and in disunion some other times, with both of their eyes fixed on the ultimate prize.

However, through a combination of fate, luck, divine interventions and political dexterity, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu finally clinched the Presidency AT THE FIRST TRY as against his never-ending ambition since 1993. Here lies his pain, anger, despair and depression.

But let me remind Atiku Abubakar that, despite all the invectives he has poured on the President of late, power is given only by God Almighty, not by man. My most favourite Bible verse since I was 10 years old is actually Ecclesiastic 9:11 which states:

"I returned, and saw under the sun, that the race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, neither yet bread to the wise, nor yet riches to men of understanding, nor yet favour to men of skill; but time and chance happeneth to them all."

We should all pity Atiku Abubakar rather than goad him on. Those close to him should actually administer anti-depressants on him. Rather than win supporters, he will lose most intelligent ones by his recent posturing.

Atiku Abubakar urgently needs mental health support at this critical time as he finally peters out into political oblivion.

- Festus Keyamo, @fkeyamo Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development

[MD Umar @DanUmar68]

100 DAYS TO ELECTIONS: WHO REALLY WANTS THE POWER—WHY AND FOR WHAT?

Nigeria is approaching another election season.

The political machinery is already beginning to turn: alliances are being negotiated, political platforms are being repositioned, defections are being discussed, and politicians are calculating the possibilities of 2027.

But beneath the familiar spectacle of Nigerian politics lies a question that is rarely pursued far enough:

What is the struggle for political power actually about?

The easy answer is that politicians want to govern.

But governing is not simply occupying an office. Political power gives access to the machinery through which public resources are allocated, policies are designed, contracts are awarded, institutions are controlled and national priorities are determined.

That is why the 2027 contest deserves to be examined beyond personalities and party labels.

Who wants the power? Why do they want it? And, most importantly, what interests will that power serve?

Nigeria’s political economy makes these questions unavoidable.

The government keeps brandishing economic dashboards showing statistics of macroeconomic stability— stronger revenues, reserves and economic growth. Yet realities of household incomes are pointing to opposite direction. Poverty rates had peaked up to 63%.

That contradiction should be at the centre of the political debate.

Because an economy can become more stable on paper while millions of citizens remain economically insecure.

And this is where class enters the political argument.

The consequences of government policy are not distributed equally.

For a household with substantial savings, property, business interests or multiple income streams, economic adjustment may be painful but manageable.

For a worker whose salary is almost entirely consumed by food, rent, transport, electricity and school fees, the same adjustment can mean a profound deterioration in living standards.

The state therefore does not merely make economic decisions.

It distributes burdens and opportunities.

It determines who receives protection, who bears adjustment costs, which industries receive incentives, where public investment goes, how taxation is structured and how national resources are converted into economic opportunity.

This is why the political conversation cannot stop at:

Who will occupy Aso Rock?

It must move to:

Who will control the economic direction of the state?

Who will benefit from public spending?

Who will have access to productive opportunities?

Who will carry the burden of taxation and economic adjustment?

Who will have the political influence to shape policy?

And who will simply live with the consequences?

These are not abstract questions.

The World Bank has repeatedly warned that Nigeria’s growth has not been sufficiently inclusive and that productive jobs remain inadequate. Its 2026 assessment says growth remains insufficient to generate enough productive employment and materially reduce poverty.

And.. corruption has remained at the center of political and administrative wheels of governance.

So the central issue for 2027 should not simply be the ability of political actors to assemble coalitions.

It should be the substance of what those coalitions propose to do with the enormous power of the Nigerian state.

A coalition can unite politicians.

A political party can unite structures.

An election can change the occupants of government.

But none of these automatically changes the underlying distribution of economic power.

That requires something much deeper: institutions that make public power answerable to the public, policies that broaden access to productive wealth, and an economy capable of generating decent livelihoods rather than merely impressive aggregate statistics.

This is why Nigerians should look beyond the political theatre.

Don’t ask only who wants power. Ask what they intend to do with it.

[MD Umar @DanUmar68]

THE PROBLEM WITH NIGERIAN POLITICS: EVERY POLITICIAN WANTS POWER. BUT POWER FOR WHAT?

Nigeria’s 2027 political machine is already warming up.

Coalitions.
Counter-coalitions.
Defections.
Negotiations.
Consensus candidates.
Runoff calculations.

Everybody is talking about who should carry the flag.

But there is a question we keep avoiding:

WHAT WILL THEY DO WITH THE POWER ONCE THEY GET IT?

This is where Nigerian politics becomes painfully predictable.

Political negotiations often revolve around who gets the ticket, who controls the structure, who gets the position and who commands the machinery.

But where is the equally fierce argument about who gets the wealth?

Who gets decent jobs?

Who gets affordable food?

Who gets functioning schools?

Who gets healthcare?

Who gets electricity?

Who gets security?

And who pays when government decisions become expensive for ordinary people?

A presidential election is not merely a contest between personalities.

It is a contest over the direction of the Nigerian state.

Yet much of the political conversation risks becoming a mathematical exercise:

Who can unite whom?

Whose structure is bigger?

Whose supporters will move?

Who controls which state?

Who gets the ticket?

Important questions but incomplete ones.

Because changing the occupants of political office without changing the relationship between political power and economic power leaves the deeper question untouched.

Nigeria does not merely need politicians capable of winning elections.

The public deserves to know what their power will be used to change.

Otherwise, 2027 risks becoming another spectacular competition for the keys to the house while millions of Nigerians remain outside the room asking:

“When will this house finally work for us?”

That is the question beneath the politics.

Don’t just follow who wants power. Follow what they intend to do with it.

[MD Umar @DanUmar68]

🇳🇬 66 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE. BUT WHO REALLY OWNS THE POWER?

Nigeria has been independent for 66 years.

But independence is not simply the absence of colonial rule.

It is also a question of who controls the political power, who controls the national resources, who makes the decisions and whose interests those decisions ultimately serve.

Every election, Nigerians are presented with new parties, new alliances, new slogans and new political personalities.

But beneath the political theatre is a much older question:

Has political power actually become power for the people?

Today, the political class speaks of reforms, growth, prosperity and a new Nigeria.

The opposition speaks of alternatives, coalitions and political realignment.

But Nigerians experience politics somewhere much more concrete:

in the price of food.
In the cost of transport.
In access to jobs.
In electricity bills.
In school fees.
In healthcare.
In security.
In whether a salary can survive the month.

That is why politics cannot be reduced to who occupies the presidential palace, who controls the party structure or who wins the next election.

The deeper question is:

WHAT DOES POLITICAL POWER ACTUALLY DO WITH THE ECONOMIC POWER OF THE STATE?

Who gets access to public resources?

Who gets protected when economic adjustments become painful?

Who carries the burden when government policies impose costs?

And who accumulates wealth when the economy expands?

These are not merely economic questions.

They are political questions.

Nigeria does not lack political activity.

We have parties.
We have elections.
We have politicians.
We have campaigns.

What deserves greater scrutiny is the distribution of power behind the spectacle.

Because democracy is not only about changing the people who occupy political offices.

It is also about asking whose interests the machinery of government serves once those offices have been occupied.

66 years after independence, perhaps the question is no longer simply: “Who governs Nigeria?”

The harder question is:

WHO DOES NIGERIAN POWER WORK FOR?

Follow the power. Follow the budget. Follow the consequences.

[SULAIMAN ABDULKADIR @sulaiman067]

@scarfizal @OfficialAPCNg @yesmylo @officialABAT Economic policies that after 3 years of implementation citizens only feel their negative effects are very bad policies, they should be discarded.

[MD Umar @DanUmar68]

REFORMS ARE NOT THE SAME THING AS RESULTS.

Listing policies is easy. The harder question is: what have those policies actually delivered to Nigerians?

Yes, major structural reforms have been introduced since 2023. But the economic record must be measured beyond government announcements.

In August 2026, headline inflation was still 15.39%, while food inflation stood at 19.57%. Prices may be rising more slowly, but they are still rising.

GDP grew 4.43% year-on-year in Q2 2026. That is significant—but GDP growth alone does not tell us how its benefits are distributed across households, workers and businesses.

Even the investment numbers demand closer examination. Nigeria attracted $10.37 billion in capital in Q1 2026, but the composition matters: most was portfolio investment, while manufacturing and production accounted for only a small share.

And the ₦70,000 minimum wage is a documented reform. But a nominal wage increase does not automatically mean an equivalent improvement in real purchasing power when essential prices have risen substantially.

So the serious economic question is not:

“How many reforms have been introduced?”

It is:

“What has been the distributional effect of those reforms, and who is carrying the cost of adjustment?”

A government can improve fiscal and macroeconomic indicators while households continue to experience severe pressure.

The reform story should therefore be tested against the lived economy—not simply the policy register.

That is where the real debate begins

[Al Jazeera English @AJEnglish]

Delegates are seen walking out in protest as Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu arrives at the podium to address the UN General Assembly (UNGA) in New York.

[MD Umar @DanUmar68]

THE CONTRADICTION

$10.37 BILLION IN FOREIGN INVESTMENT. BUT ONLY 1.47% WENT INTO MANUFACTURING.

Nigeria recorded $10.37 billion in capital importation in Q1 2026 which is 83.83% increase from $5.64 billion in Q1 2025 and 60.97% higher than Q4 2025.

At first glance, this looks like a spectacular vote of confidence in the Nigerian economy.

But look beneath the headline.

Of that $10.37 billion, a staggering $9.86 billion that’s 95.09% was portfolio investment.

Foreign Direct Investment, the kind of investment more directly associated with establishing or expanding productive enterprises, was only $135.08 million or 1.30% of the total.

And where did most of the money go?

$7.55 billion, or 72.79%, went into banking.

Another $2.43 billion, or 23.42%, went into financing.

Production and manufacturing received just $135.08 million or 1.30% of the total.

Now pause there.

Nigeria attracted $10.37 billion in foreign capital.

But less than 2 cents of every dollar of that capital went into production and manufacturing.

This is the contradiction.

Capital is entering the country. But capital entering a country is not automatically the same thing as productive transformation.

Money can flow into financial assets without creating factories.

It can chase yields without creating millions of productive jobs.

It can strengthen financial markets without putting cheaper food on the table.

And it can make investors richer without necessarily making workers richer.

This is where the ordinary Nigerian enters the argument.

The trader needs affordable credit.

The manufacturer needs reliable electricity.

The farmer needs machinery, storage and processing facilities.

The graduate needs productive employment.

The small business needs patient capital not merely expensive money.

The economy needs factories, technology, infrastructure and productive capacity.

So the question is not simply:

“How much investment is Nigeria attracting?”

The harder question is:

“What is that investment building?”

Because an economy cannot finance its way into industrialisation indefinitely.

If capital keeps flowing mainly toward financial assets while productive investment remains marginal, we should ask whether we are building an economy that produces more or simply a financial system that extracts more.

Investment matters.

But the composition of investment matters even more.

Don’t stop at the headline number.

Follow the capital.
Follow where it goes.
Then ask who benefits.

[Al Mayadeen English @MayadeenEnglish]

Addressing the UN General Assembly during its 81st session, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian rejected Trump's description of Iran as “terrorist", stressing that Iran has instead been the victim of US and Israeli terrorism and aggression.

Pezeshkian said that the US and “Israel” targeted Iranian schools, hospitals, universities, healthcare centers, and infrastructure, while stressing that Iran defended itself and “did not bend the knee.”

He also said Iran’s response did not target civilian populations, stressing that the US-Israeli attacks against Iran were violations of international law.

#AlMayadeen #Iran #IranWar #WestAsia #USA #UNGA

[pezeshkian @drpezeshkian2]

من از ایرانی می‌آییم که رهبر ما را ترور کردند.

از ایرانی می‌آیم که مدرسه‌ای را بمباران کردند که بچه‌های میناب را با اسلحه‌های آمریکایی و صهیونیستی بمباران کردند.
#UNGA81

[MD Umar @DanUmar68]

THE CONTRADICTION

CORRUPTION: WHY NOT FIX THE SYSTEM THAT LETS IT LEAK?

Nigeria does not lack anti-corruption speeches.

We have laws.
We have agencies.
We have investigations.
We have prosecutions.
We have convictions.
We have recoveries.

But here is the uncomfortable question:

Why does corruption keep reproducing itself?

Perhaps because we keep treating corruption primarily as the misconduct of individuals instead of asking what happens inside the institutions that control public money.

The ICPC’s 2025 assessment of 357 federal Ministries, Departments and Agencies found that not a single MDA achieved full compliance with its ethics and integrity standards. Only 48 achieved substantial compliance, while about 41% recorded poor compliance.

The problems are not abstract.

88 MDAs had violated provisions of the Public Procurement Act over the preceding three years.

101 MDAs had failed to submit audited accounts to the Auditor-General and Public Accounts Committee over the same period.

92 MDAs lacked functional Anti-Corruption and Transparency Units.

And 179 managements did not support systems studies or corruption-risk assessments designed to identify institutional vulnerabilities.

Then consider procurement.

The ICPC has described inflated contracts, phantom projects, collusion and abandoned infrastructure as recurring vulnerabilities in Nigeria’s public contracting system. It has also launched an audit of 760 federal road projects valued at about ₦36 trillion.

This is where corruption stops being an abstract morality story.

When a contract is inflated, somebody pays.

When a public project is abandoned, somebody waits.

When procurement produces substandard infrastructure, somebody lives with the consequences.

When public money disappears from a system designed to provide schools, hospitals, roads, water or electricity, the loss is not suffered by an accounting ledger.

It is transferred to society.

And that is why the anti-corruption conversation must go beyond:

Who stole the money?

We must also ask:

Who designed the system?
Who approved it?
Who failed to audit it?
Who benefited from its weaknesses?
And why were those weaknesses allowed to persist?

Even the ICPC chairman has acknowledged that enforcement alone will not solve corruption and that prevention must receive equal attention.

The real fight against corruption therefore cannot end with arrests.

It must reach the institutions, incentives and systems that make corruption possible.

Because if the system remains porous, tomorrow’s recovery will simply become another justification for today’s leakage.

Don’t just follow the stolen money.
Follow the system that allowed it to disappear.

[MD Umar @DanUmar68]

That’s the constriction in our economic models.

That is where GDP statistics meet the kitchen table. I discuss this fully in
https://t.co/oZhCQKA5pM

Can a worker pay rent?

Can a young graduate build a future?

Can a trader replace depleted capital?

Can a farmer make enough from production to support a family?

Can work provide something beyond survival?

Growth matters. But the quality and distribution of work matter too.

Don’t ask only:

“Is the economy growing?”

Ask:

“What kind of livelihoods is that growth creating?”

[Al Jazeera English @AJEnglish]

US and Israeli vessels and cargo confiscated by Iran are “up for sale”, a top Iranian judicial official says, adding proceeds will go to families of those killed in the US war on Iran, according to Iranian media.

🔴 LIVE updates: https://t.co/8paR3biOjP

[MD Umar @DanUmar68]

THE CONTRADICTION

STATISTICS SHOW THE ECONOMY IS GROWING. BUT REALITY POINTS TO THE OPPOSITE.

On paper, Nigeria’s economy is expanding.

Real GDP grew 4.43% in Q2 2026.

But walk outside the statistics and ask the Nigerian worker, trader, farmer, graduate or small-business owner what those numbers mean in their daily life.

The answer may look very different.

And that is where the real economic argument begins.

Nigeria’s economy grew 4.43% in real terms in Q2 2026, up from 3.89% in Q1 and 4.23% a year earlier. That is economic growth in paper. That’s what Government want you to pay attention to.

But the question they can’t afford to ignore is:

What kind of economic life are that numbers creating for Nigerians?

The latest NBS Labour Force Survey provides an uncomfortable window into the structure of employment in Nigeria.

In Q2 2024, 76% of Nigerians aged 15+ were employed.

But 86% of these employed people were self-employed- people working and struggling to feed. That means only 14 out of 100 people the government counted as employed are actually paid employees.

So the measured unemployment rate of 4.3% is misleading compared with only the 14% real employees.

But what is more revealing is that 93% of employment in Nigeria is informal according to the NBS.

93% of the 14 employed Nigerians are employed in the informal sector- laborers, bricklayers, artisans, Keke and and commercial bike riders.

Wages in the sector are hardly compliant with national minimum wage. If anything they are just a handouts.

Government statistics are skewed to favor propaganda.

Yet there are reported to show unemployment is easing. It is not. It is being hidden beneath the figures:

A person selling provisions from a roadside shop is counted as employed.

A graduate driving a vehicle for income is counted as employed.

A tailor working from home is counted as employed.

A farmer cultivating a small plot is counted as employed.

A trader struggling to keep enough capital in circulation is counted as employed.

But employment is not the same thing as economic security.

The same NBS survey recorded 9.2% time-related underemployment, while 12.5% of young people aged 15–24 were neither in employment, education nor training.

Meanwhile, Q2 2026 GDP shows an economy where services accounted for 56.62% of real GDP, agriculture 26.15%, and industry just 17.23%. Industry grew 3.96%, down from 7.46% a year earlier.

This is the contradiction:

An economy can grow without generating enough secure, productive and adequately remunerated work.

And that is where GDP statistics meet the kitchen table.

Can a worker pay rent?

Can a young graduate build a future?

Can a trader replace depleted capital?

Can a farmer make enough from production to support a family?

Can work provide something beyond survival?

Growth matters. But the quality and distribution of work matter too.

If the economy is growing, What kind of livelihoods is that growth creating?

[MD Umar @DanUmar68]

THE CONTRADICTION

₦28.3 TRILLION REVENUE IN 2025. 140 MILLION IMPOVERISHED NIGERIANS

Nigeria’s government revenue is rising. But the household question remains: where is the dividend?

World Bank figures put poverty rate at 63% meaning about 140 million Nigerians are impoverished.

Poverty trajectory kept rising between 2023 and 2025 from 56% to 61% to 63%.

Erosion of purchasing power, income lag, and disproportionate impacts have been the key drivers of the side into the economic abyss. Food costs account for up to 70% of total household spending among lower-income groups, making price spikes particularly damaging.

But in 2025, the Nigeria Revenue Service collected about ₦28.3 trillion, exceeding its ₦25.2 trillion target.

In March 2026 alone, ₦2.036 trillion was distributed from the Federation Account to the Federal Government, states and local governments.

Yet the 2026 Federal Budget projects ₦36.87 trillion in revenue against ₦68.32 trillion in expenditure, leaving a ₦31.46 trillion deficit. Debt service alone is projected at about ₦15.8 trillion. This is crazy in any economic sense.

Meanwhile, Nigerians are still dealing with 15.39% headline inflation and 19.57% food inflation as of August 2026.

These numbers tell us something important:

More revenue does not automatically mean better household welfare. So as the government gets richer, the masses get poorer.

Government finances can improve while families continue to struggle with food, transport, electricity, rent and education.

So the real question is no longer simply:

How much is government collecting?

It is:

What is the additional revenue doing for the people who ultimately finance the state?

Of course, revenue matters. Fiscal stability matters.

But what citizens receive in return matters more.

Follow the budget. Then follow the household.

[MD Umar @DanUmar68]

THE NUMBERS ARE MOVING. BUT WHO IS MOVING FORWARD?

Nigeria’s economic story is increasingly being told through improving numbers.

Inflation has fallen. GDP is growing. Government revenues have improved. Foreign reserves have strengthened. The fiscal position is being presented as more stable.

These developments matter.

But an economy is not a spreadsheet.

Behind every percentage is a household paying for food. A worker paying for transport. A small business paying for electricity. A parent paying school fees. A family trying to preserve purchasing power while prices remain far above where they were before the current adjustment cycle.

And this is where the economic debate becomes more complicated.

Falling inflation does not mean falling prices.

GDP growth does not tell us who receives the income generated by that growth.

Higher government revenue does not automatically mean higher household welfare.

Fiscal stability does not necessarily mean financial security for the family.

The real test of economic reform therefore cannot stop at whether the government’s numbers are improving.

We must ask what is happening beneath those numbers.

Who is gaining purchasing power?

Who is losing it?

Who is absorbing the adjustment costs?

Who is positioned to benefit when the economy stabilises?

And perhaps the most important question:

When the economy improves, how quickly does that improvement reach the household?

This is the contradiction we must keep examining.

A country can move in the right direction on some macroeconomic indicators while millions of its citizens continue to struggle with the cost of living.

Both realities can exist at the same time.

Don’t stop at the numbers. Follow the consequences.

[MD Umar @DanUmar68]

INFLATION IS FALLING. SO WHY DOES LIFE STILL FEEL SO EXPENSIVE?

There is a sentence Nigerians need to hear whenever government announces that inflation is falling:

Prices are not necessarily falling. They may simply be rising more slowly.

That distinction sounds technical. For the household struggling to buy food, pay transport fares, keep children in school and meet rent, it is anything but technical.

Nigeria’s headline inflation fell marginally from 15.43% in July to 15.39% in August 2026. Food inflation also declined, from 20.31% to 19.57% year-on-year. On the surface, these are improvements. The National Bureau of Statistics says the August monthly inflation rate was 0.71%, down from 1.57% in July, meaning the average price level continued to rise, but at a slower pace.

Here is where economic statistics become difficult—and where ordinary citizens can easily be lost in the language of macroeconomics.

Inflation measures the rate at which prices are changing. It does not tell us that prices have returned to where they were before the inflation occurred.

If a bag of rice rises from ₦40,000 to ₦60,000 and then rises to ₦61,000, inflation has slowed. But the household is still paying ₦61,000, not ₦40,000.

That is why disinflation is not the same thing as deflation.

The distinction becomes even more important when incomes are considered. If wages rise more slowly than the cost of essential goods and services, workers can experience declining real purchasing power even while headline inflation is falling.

This is the part of the economic story that headline statistics can conceal.

GDP can grow. Inflation can fall. Government revenue can rise. Foreign reserves can improve.

And households can still feel poorer.

Nigeria’s real GDP grew 4.43% in Q2 2026, according to the NBS. That is a genuine measure of increased aggregate economic output. But GDP does not tell us by itself how that additional output and income are distributed across workers, businesses, government and households.

This is why economic analysis must move beyond the dashboard.

Who is earning more? Who is paying more? Who owns the productive assets? Who absorbs the adjustment? And what has happened to the purchasing power of ordinary people?

The economy is not a collection of percentages.

Behind every percentage are people who produce, consume, work, struggle and survive.

And that is why the most important economic question is not simply whether the numbers are improving. The question MUST always be:

It is improving for whom?

MD Umar