Your about to see this chart everywhere. Here's why its stupid and how to really view this.
"BRO BEFORE THE BLOW OFF TOP WE ARE GONNA SEE MANY DIPS"
While I don't think this bull is done, know this. There is no science or reasoning that will let you safely call the end of this.
Charts/theories/etc all like this are simply cope tools to allow people to create an "illusion" of safety or certainty.
This is actually way more dangerous because your blind yourself to the actual uncontrollable risk you are taking and start TREATING it like its predictable and controllable.
It's like locking yourself in a cage with a sleeping tiger and then convincing yourself you can predict it because it's been asleep the last 45 minutes and you get comfortable. That's when you are in real danger.
The truth is : At the top of this market one day it'll dip and it just wont stop. You won't see it. It'll look like any other dip. Then that's it. Your portfolio will simply trend down 90%+ over the next year.
Accept that this will happen and you CANNOT find safety or certainty that you will avoid it.
For example ATM tons of people are using this chart and FREAKING the F out trying to justify not selling right now.
This isn't even a real "bull crash" FYI. So if you are nervous here, your in for a lot of fun if the bull continues.
The correct take is : Ive made a bet based on these factor. I can't control this bet. Im staying in the bet. I know the risk. Ive considered what happens if I lose and fine with the negative outcome in relation to the chance at the positive outcome. Namaste.
By doing this you will
-Keep your risk under control
-Be less inclined to panic
AND...Make you actually AWARE of the danger/risk THUS you will take profits and not get drunk.
Every person at the end of last bull who used these charts to create a "illusion" of safety got completely wiped out when it turned out to be just that "an illusion".
Talk like this will build up over a bull to create an army of lemmings all who think they can safely call the top. These lemmings are where the liquidity at the top of will come from.
Don't do that. Stare at the sleeping tiger, stay hyper attentive, calmy accept the risk and that this is part of the game.
The game might be over. BUT your bet is that its not. It's a bet. Stop stressing out, making charts and telling yourself stories to calm down.
Let the roulette wheel spin. Plot out your risk and an amount of loss you can happily accept. Then accept the danger.
Risk management thread!
Many struggle with this, so I decided to write down my learnings, entry level.
Please like and share if there is something useful for you so others can benefit too.
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