Everything you want is on the other side of not giving a fuck, asking again, and taking another shot. Life gives you endless lottery tickets to try and you only need one win to change your life forever .
@XalmaYoel Yo también lucho todos los días contra creencias limitantes y presiones externas. Pero recuerda que eso nada importa, tienes la misma habilidad de alguien que hace 10-50k al día, solo estas recorriendo una etapa de tu camino personal, además cuando se viene desde abajo vale x2 👊
Historical analogs are useful only when adjusted for how widely the analog itself is expected.
A pattern that worked spectacularly in the past becomes less powerful as more participants recognize it, anticipate it, and position for it. The knowledge of the pattern changes the conditions under which the pattern operates.
The highest-conviction opportunities therefore combine historical precedent with low crowd recognition.
It is not enough to ask, “Has this happened before?” You must also ask, “How many people expect it to happen again, and how are they already positioned?”
When everyone expects the same outcome, much of the necessary buying, selling, or hedging has already occurred. The market has partially consumed its own future.
The largest moves tend to begin from surprise and positioning imbalance, when reality forces a large number of participants to revise their beliefs simultaneously.
But once a move becomes established, the mechanism changes. In the later stages of a parabola, fundamentals increasingly give way to reflexivity: rising prices create enthusiasm, enthusiasm creates buying, buying creates rising prices, and the price action itself becomes the justification for further participation.
So the mental model is: precedent × surprise × positioning × reflexivity.
I study history, but always discount a historical pattern by how many people have already studied it.
Good traders aren’t tense people at war with the market. They’re optimistic, calm, open, and emotionally stable. Trading isn’t about catching every move; it’s about surviving uncertainty without letting fear, greed, regret, or ego hijack the process. The market rewards emotional consistency.
Scalping is what gives you a chance for a scalable strategy.
Do you think everyone just shows up with a few hundred K or a million bucks to trade a scalable strategy?
You have to build a strategy that gives you a CHANCE to make that choice.
You're making a HUGE assumption that if you just trade a 'scalable' strategy you can provide for your wife and three kids.
If you have a system that brings consistency you do that until you're in a position to start to build wealth.
Income > wealth build early in career
Wealth build > income when you don't need income.
Build up the nest egg as much as you can before you venture off into other strategies.
There is no ONE right way to trade.
The only thing wrong here is you telling someone what they should be doing for a strategy.
I can't manage a large book for shit, but that should be my next logical 'step' but, if I do that and never fully disconnect from the markets how will that impact things outside of trading? Will I ever be present?
Find what works for YOU and exploit that as long as you can.
Try having a kid, or two kids ... or in Ed's case 3 kids and "rely" on a swing strategy which is a lot more out of your control vs. an income strategy that allows him low stress consistency until he's ready to venture into the next stage of his trading career.
Are there any further questions?
What happens when you die:
They divide up your shit.
They summarize your life in 500-1000 words.
People who knew you less say sorry to people who knew you more.
Everyone eats, drives home, and wakes up the next day and goes to work.
Whatever you’re worried about won’t be in those 500 words.
You can dare greatly or not at all, but you’re gonna die either way.
Might as well squeeze every motherfucking drop out.
Trade identification (set ups) are waaaaaay over emphasized and contribute little to a trader's edge. How a trade is sized and exited and the management of emotions and process are far more important aspects of trading. The vast overwhelming obsession over set ups is misplaced