Low 40's BTC is the ideal price for Blackrock, etc to sell BTC at. They don't wanna pump it yet, cos their customers need get in and make money. But don't dump it too hard either cos they'll look stupid. So low 40's, mostly sideways for a while, then accumulate and send it.
Notice how the market always tops on good news, and bottoms on bad news?
Record $BTC ETF flows: Top (June)
Trump speech/strategic reserve hype: Top (July)
FOMC fears + poor ETF flows: Bottom (May)
Mt. Gox/German selling: Bottom (July)
Always countertrade the headlines.
Fear vs. Euphoria is a redacted measure of sentiment.
People are fearful in downtrends.
People are euphoric in uptrends.
Fading sentiment in this fashion is the biggest of midcurve traps and will have you offsides for months at a time.
If you want to try and action the tea leaves, then:
Uncertainty vs. Confidence is much more useful.
1) You want to join early when the charts are trending and people are uncertain and unwilling to accept this new information. Many participants will be hesitant to step in, often looking for deeper pullbacks.
Run with the trend and fade the uncertainty.
2) In the middle of a trending environment, many people have finally accepted the new information and jumped on board. There comes a moment when it seems like everyone is euphoric, yet price continues higher.
Never fade the momentum or sentiment in this environment.
3) You want to fade the crowd only when their confidence continues to grow as momentum begins to wane. Each expansion is weaker than the last. Markets have begun to chop harder than before. Pumps are sold. The TL is pitching you on tech and targets continue getting further. The divergence is actionable.
TL;DR
Momentum + Uncertainty = Bet with trend
Momentum + Confidence = Bet with trend
Momentum + Overconfidence = Bet with trend
Momentum Loss + Overconfidence = Fade trend
Fear is when people are hedging tweets, talking about shorts, praising bears who’ve been wrong 25 times previously but got one right.
Fear isn’t boldly declaring you’re buying more because fuck bears.
Many of you know what fear is in this space, that’s what you harness and buy.
Sold a lot of my spot holdings over the past couple of weeks. Looking to slowly buy back in now. Didn't want to tweet about it cos the pressure of publicly going against the herd is distracting from just getting the job done sometimes. I'm not interested in being an influencer.
Sold a lot of my spot holdings over the past couple of weeks. Looking to slowly buy back in now. Didn't want to tweet about it cos the pressure of publicly going against the herd is distracting from just getting the job done sometimes. I'm not interested in being an influencer.
@terrific_M Just like, we are pretty conditioned to BTC going up only for a while now, and there's a lot of bullish energy around for BTC and Altcoins. I'm still bullish, but i think maybe we get our patience tested a bit, so maybe BTC stalls and chops up and down here and your trade wins