FINITO SPEECH DI WARSH A JACKSON HOLE. Ecco gli highlights:
• I progressi sull’inflazione negli ultimi due anni sono stati “modesti” e gli ultimi dati non dimostrano ancora un miglioramento convincente del trend sottostante.
• Standard molto netto: la Fed deve essere sicura che l’inflazione stia tornando al 2% “clearly and at sufficient speed”; altrimenti, ha ancora “work to do”. L'inflazione la misurano con il PCE, che attualmente è al 3.7%.
• Frase probabilmente più importante per i mercati: le condizioni finanziarie complessive non gli sembrano restrittive. Tradotto: non considera gli attuali tassi necessariamente abbastanza alti da soffocare domanda/inflazione.
• Ha ribadito che i tassi a breve sono lo strumento principale della Fed.
Niente promessa esplicita di rialzo e niente timing: continua a rifiutare la classica forward guidance.
Quindi non ha detto “rialziamo a settembre”, ma ha aperto la porta molto più chiaramente di prima.
I mercati ora prezzano sostanzialmente un 50% di probabilità di rialzo tassi a settembre.
🚨 DON'T BUY $SPCX HERE
The 41% rip off the low is real. The reason for it is not
This isn't accumulation. It's shorts running for exit
The post-IPO script so far:
1. IPO Launch: $135 → $201.80 peak close in three days (DONE)
2. Distribution: -50% flush to ~$102. Below IPO price by week five (DONE)
3. Aug 6: 911.5M shares unlock - $98.7 billion of supply, 143% of the float. The "kill shot" closed +6.1% (DONE)
4. Squeeze: short interest 34% → 11% in one week. Tape back to $141 (DONE - you are here)
5. The fade: squeeze fuel spent. Eight more unlock tranches through Dec 8 - up to 40% of company tradable by December
6. The base: $100-$120. Where bottom gets built. Where I buy
"Shorts that wanted to short are out of bullets." That's S3's own read this week
Out of bullets = out of buyers. Covering isn't conviction
But now flip it around
July 7: Nasdaq-100 inclusion. Billions in forced passive buying. The tape swallowed it and kept falling
Aug 6: 911 MILLION shares of forced supply. The tape swallowed it and closed green
Good news couldn't lift it in July. Bad news couldn't sink it in August
That flip is how bottoms start
We've seen this exact candle before
Facebook 2012: IPO'd at $38, dumped 54% to $17.55 on lock-up fear. Then monster
November unlock hit - roughly 800M shares. FB closed +13% that day
Bottom confirmed. It never looked back - a 10x over the following years
$SPCX printed the same candle on Aug 6
But FB still needed months of boring base-building before markup. So will this - at 88x sales, froth needs time, not one squeeze
So here's the map
Distribution exhausts itself into the remaining tranches
The bottom forms in the $100-$120 zone into Dec 8
Accumulation starts there - quietly, while everyone's still trading crash
I'm flat. My bids are set. The moment I make my first buy, I'll post it right here in real time
I called the 2025 $BTC ATH and drop to $60k. The next entry matters more than next exit
Turn notifs on so you don’t miss my next market call...
Here are 12 growth stocks trading below their average forward P/E! Are you buying any of these companies?👇🧵
1) $GOOGL Google
Forward P/E: 21.2x
Average: 31.3x
Peter Lynch said: "There is 100% correlation between a company's earnings and what happens to the stock.”
If stock price follows EPS, here are 6 stocks that look like opportunity.
1. $MSFT - Microsoft
$BTC is perfectly mirroring the 2022 Bull Trap right now.
We’re now in the FINAL bull trap before $BTC dumps to $50,000 in 14 days.
Save this chart and don’t become exit liquidity.
Bitcoin is perfectly mirroring this exact setup right now.
The same pattern is still in play, and $BTC will dump to $47,000 Next week.
Save this chart now. Don’t become exit liquidity.
$BTC cycles:
2015–17: 12 Jan -> 11 Dec: 1065 days
2017–18: 11 Dec -> 10 Dec: 365 days
2018–21: 10 Dec -> 8 Nov: 1066 days
2021–22: 8 Nov -> 7 Nov: 365 days
2022–25: 7 Nov -> 6 Oct: 1065 days
2025–26: 6 Oct -> 5 Oct: 365 days
This article will change how you look at holding BTC:
THIS IS INSANE.🤯
North Korea stole $285 million in 12 minutes.
Drift is the biggest trading platform on Solana.
The code was fine. Two audits found nothing wrong. North Korea didn’t touch the code. They went after the people.
They made a fake token called CarbonVote. Put in a few thousand dollars to make it look real. Drift’s system thought it was worth hundreds of millions.
Then they got the people who held the keys to sign off on transactions weeks before the actual attack. Nobody knew what they were approving.
April 1: They pressed go. $285 million drained in 12 minutes. Every vault emptied.
Token dropped 40%. The platform lost half its TVL overnight.
Elliptic and TRM Labs both say it’s North Korea.
Same pattern as the $1.4 billion Bybit hack last year. Same tools. Same speed.
North Korea took $2 billion in crypto in 2025. That’s 60% of everything stolen in crypto worldwide.
The US says that money funds their weapons program. And they’re doing it again this year.
No bug. No exploit. They faked a token, fooled real people, and took $285 million.
They spent months building trust. Then 12 minutes destroying it.
That’s how it works now.