@great_martis If equities roll over as your other charts predict, why would yields rise at the same time? Why isn't there a flight to safety bid to the only market large enough to absorb those flows? And why did all G7 yields peak 2 weeks ago with UST/Bund term premia falling = safety bid?
@RIFT_589 That's why CB's the world over have been frontrunning this trade by stacking gold - waiting for the US to pull the revaluation trigger and set it in motion. Probably also why vaulted gold was made Tier 1 capital by BIS last year and the Chinese have been buying like mad.
@LukeGromen Luke, love your work, been following you for a few years. Question : do yo think long duration bonds will rally as AI pops but then wider deficit will cause yields to back up rapidly so Fed has to monetise and if so how long for each phase? Thanks.
@NickDixon This govt is a one trick pony of borrowing and importing people to fund consumption hoping somehow the multiplier effect will allow it to pay for itself. But the ones that actually contribute see the game and are giving up so this gravy train will end soon.
@TotemMacro Credit gave me a year's heads up in 2007 after Bear Stearns. Same thing happening today, Coreweave trading at distressed and CDS 1100 bps being the canary in the coalmine.
@DefiyantlyFree What penalty did the US pay when it invaded Iraq on false pretences? Oh we'll just forget that shall we as it's most inconvenient for you isn't it as it exposes your hypocrisy. How about Iran, that was only 6 months ago - forgot about that too? History didn't start in 2022.