David M

[David M @DavidMatthias58]

@enriqueabeyta @ptj_official And Phi Alpha to you, too. Puts a more genuine spin on my OWC membership.

[Enrique Abeyta @enriqueabeyta]

Interesting data point from @bespoke showing that when the NASDAQ hits a new high after at least a THREE MONTH consolidation, it has been higher 100% of the time ONE MONTH later.

[PlanB @100trillionUSD]

⚠️Stop blaming influencers for your investment results!

That’s not analysis. That’s outsourcing responsibility.

Do this instead:
- Follow bulls AND bears
- Steal their reasoning
- Ignore their certainty
- Assign your own odds (60/40, 70/30, whatever)
- Size the trade yourself

[PlanB @100trillionUSD]

BTC $87K is now sitting above every major realized price:

• Realized price: $53K
• 155-day realized: $72K
• 2-year realized: $86K

A drop below $53K this cycle is off the table IMO. The “must retest realized price like every prior bear” thesis just lost its last clean setup.

[Investment Wisdom @InvestingCanons]

Charlie Munger: “There is no better teacher than history in determining the future.”

Technologies, businesses, & policies change. People and their desires, fears, & emotions don’t. Therein lies opportunity.

If you want to know the future, look to the past.

[Enrique Abeyta @enriqueabeyta]

"There are those who acquire their world in many years, and there are those who acquire their world in a single moment." - The Talmud

[David M @DavidMatthias58]

@OneVisionProduc @0ivankaTrump1 Actually, the things he has done have been in HIS best interest with total disregard to the American people he is supposed to serve.

[David M @DavidMatthias58]

Caution: There is somebody here calling him/herself Paul Marnpilly using the handle @MampillyGuruu_ this is a fake account. Do NOT follow back!

[David M @DavidMatthias58]

@HomanTom54322 Donald Jessica Trump, by far.

[Paul Mampilly🇺🇸 @MampillyGuru]

Whats coming in 2026 is rate increases that go from the bond market to the Fed. The 2 yr bond, 6 month t-bill rates and 90 day t-bill rate all pointing to rate increases coming.

And the bogey for the Fed is to make real (after inflation) rates positive by between 1% or 2%. Using CPI at current levels that means rates of 5.2% to 6.2%.

That puts short term rates a bit above where they were at the last peak of 5.3%. The bond market is only beginning to price the rate increase as it sees inflation numbers come in hot every month. The stock market is priced for rates cuts.

Financial markets are generally unprepared for a rate increase cycle. Blame too many years of easy gains, easy credit, easy money, euphoria and human nature. Crashes, panics and bear markets are completely normal. They happen with regularity and the conditions they begin from look pretty much like what we have right now - massive leverage, huge concentration, euphoria and historically high expectations.

At Mampilly Research we're battening down the hatches. We sold 17 stocks out of 3 different portfolios, taking gains to protect profits and capital. Thats on top of the stocks we sold out in May & June including $TSLA that we'd held since 2018.

I told members in a special video yesterday that I believe that this is a time to prepare and plan for difficult conditions. And that this is a time to worry about the return OF your capital, rather than the return ON your capital. That in my opinion, there is more risk than opportunity in current markets.

Sure we'll miss out on some gains. However, I believe given current market conditions that these are simply not worth the risk.

The wild intraday volatility of the last few days is evidence of a unstable, jittery and uncertain market. It feels familiar to someone who has been through a few of these before. Obviously, this is my opinion and my take and view of markets. You can disagree or have a different point of view. The markets will determine whats right or wrong in time.

[Paul Mampilly🇺🇸 @MampillyGuru]

The market's are signalling that there's not enough capital at current rates for these 3 things that are sucking of gobs of capital.

1. Funding US government massive debt/deficits
2. AI capex spending & buildout
3. The huge speculative activity in financial markets that built up thru decade of ZIRP, Covid interventions - mass speculation in financial markets in everything from semis to venture capital to private equity.

At higher rates, only 2 of these going to survive - government spending & AI.

Higher rates will not meaningfully change much with government spending.

AI capex will get more competitive and real, pushing companies to sell more equity and find partners to share the financing burden.

That means the odd one out is the massive financial bubble built on ZIRP & Covid interventions which came through unscathed despite the biggest fastest Fed rate increases in history, a bear market in 2022. I doubt very much that it escapes unscathed through what is coming next.

[David M @DavidMatthias58]

@Babywwir YES

[Paul Mampilly🇺🇸 @MampillyGuru]

Unglobalization, deglobalization, reindustrialization now spreads from US to Europe....our metals, oil, electricity, shipping are all built on these theme that reindustrialization is akin to the rebuilding after WW2. Then it was a hot war that destroyed the industrial base of Europe. This time around its the 30 years of globalization, and voluntary standing down of industrial power of the US and Europe. Whatever it is, we'll need lots of commodities to rebuild. Mampilly Research subs got in early and we'll stay in.

[Paul Mampilly🇺🇸 @MampillyGuru]

That means oil goes higher from here and takes oil & energy stocks with it. The simple but hard trade continues to be to buy oil & energy stocks. That's because there's no buffer as there was in previous wars & crises because of what we've been doing for 2 decades now.

[Paul Mampilly🇺🇸 @MampillyGuru]

32% of U.S. fin'l advisors now allocate #Bitcoin to client portfolios (Bitwise/VettaFi 2026 survey)

A 2% allocation across their ~$145T AUM would require ~42–43 million $BTCUSD

That's 2× Bitcoin’s entire circulating supply of ~20 mill.

[Paul Mampilly🇺🇸 @MampillyGuru]

Global shocks in the last 5- 6 years
2020 Covid
2021 Supply chain shock
2022 Inflation shock/Fed rate increase & Russia/Ukraine War
2023 Bear market & Israel/Hamas war (sets in motion events for 2026 Iran war)
2024 US Election
2025 Liberation day market & tariff shock
2026 Iran war & oil shock

Each shock has generated large aftereffects that continue to reverberate through the world. And now the aftereffects are creating their own aftershocks and feedback loops to create more events that continue to surprise markets.

Many people came into the markets in 2020 based on the hugely positive track record of the markets we experienced from 2009 - 2019.

Expecting the history of the 2009 -2019 markets to repeat is a going to be a massive blunder in hindsight.

The list of unexpected events & shocks continue to mount even as retail investors are the most heavily invested in stocks in decades.

The current markets are more risky and require more care, more thought and only selective & cautious exposure to risk.

If you're looking for how we're looking at market, opportunity & risk, find more information at https://t.co/sKyJ3B5EJb

[David M @DavidMatthias58]

@MampillyGuru I’ve been patiently waiting since both were reco’d 5/6 yrs ago. I can wait a bit longer. Thx, @MampillyGuru

[David M @DavidMatthias58]

@MampillyGuru Hodling

[Paul Mampilly🇺🇸 @MampillyGuru]

$IBIT options IVs have collapsed to 50%~. BTC crash cleared out the option overhang. 2026 rallies benefit from this overhang being gone