mica went live july 1. exchanges are already telling users "we can no longer serve you."
that's not a glitch. it's the new baseline. the fix isn't another platform to trust, it's not needing one.
#selfcustody#privacy#MiCa
Political Scientist Prof. Robert Pape: The war isn't over because Iran isn't finished winning.
Most people see the ceasefires, the meetings in Doha, the headlines about diplomacy, and assume everyone is trying to find a way out.
Prof. Pape thinks that's fundamentally misunderstanding what Iran is doing.
His argument is brutally simple: The MOU isn't just a ceasefire agreement, it's a roadmap for Iran to become the dominant regional power.
That's why Tehran is fighting so hard over the Strait of Hormuz, and why Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen suddenly matter.
They're all part of the same strategic picture.
Prof. Pape says Iran is building what every rising power eventually tries to build: a sphere of influence.
Tehran's would stretch from the Mediterranean to the Red Sea and back to the Gulf, giving it leverage not just over Hormuz but over the alternative routes that could one day bypass it.
That's the part almost everyone is missing.
America keeps treating these flashpoints as isolated problems, Prof. Pape says Tehran sees them as pieces of the same board.
Iran believes it's still gaining power, and countries that think they're winning don't suddenly stop playing.
By the end of the interview, I was thinking about two completely different visions of the Middle East colliding.
One where America still sets the rules, and another where Iran believes it finally has the chance to rewrite them.
@ProfessorPape
Lebanon signed a deal with Israel yesterday and Fmr Israel Peace Negotiator Daniel Levy couldn't believe what he was reading
The Iranian MOU already required unconditional Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, and then the Lebanese government turned around and signed a separate deal making that withdrawal conditional on disarming Hezbollah
Daniel's line: Iran negotiated better terms for Lebanon than Lebanon did for itself
An Israeli military commentator went on Channel 13 the same night and called it a win-win, either Israel stays in Lebanon or Lebanon is forced into civil war with Hezbollah
Why did Lebanon do it? Daniel says they don't have leverage, they over-internalized their weakness, and they handed away what little bargaining power the MOU had given them
Collaborating with Israel doesn't get you dignity, it gets you humiliated in front of your own people
Has the Lebanese government just signed its own death warrant?
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