David T. Hulett

Project cost schedule risk analyst and schedule assessment consultant and trainer. Los Angeles

[David T. Hulett @DavidTHulett]

Project risk analysis - quantitative methods produce best estimates of overall schedule risk and prioritized risks as well.

[David T. Hulett @DavidTHulett]

guys, first time on PMChat, good discussion. Keep coming back. It works. #PMChat

[David T. Hulett @DavidTHulett]

enterprise objectives include such as reputation, good stewardship of the resources, environmentally sensitive (not just profit) #PMChat

[David T. Hulett @DavidTHulett]

again, reference http://t.co/0VWj0UaW for more information and content on these issues. appreciate feedback #PMChat

[David T. Hulett @DavidTHulett]

RT PPM Practitioner, yes but enterprise objectives are much broader than just rolled-up project objectives, same with risks #PMChat

[David T. Hulett @DavidTHulett]

We need to look at models for Enterprise Risk Management, but the theory is not at that stage yet. still dealing with objectives #PMChat

[David T. Hulett @DavidTHulett]

Float is the product of the schedule's structure, but with risks the risk-critical path may not be the same as in the CPM schedule #PMChat

[David T. Hulett @DavidTHulett]

Robert, I recommend doing quantitative risk analysis before each major decision point, and periodically during execution #PMChat

[David T. Hulett @DavidTHulett]

Yes, do not "fall in love" with your static schedule. Many of the assumptions underlying it may be false with some probability #PMChat

[David T. Hulett @DavidTHulett]

We provide interviewees with confidentiality, will not tell their boss what they said. We push them since underestimation is common #PMChat

[David T. Hulett @DavidTHulett]

Expected value incorporates probability, but with Monte Carlo we can get other answers, such as date for the P-80 target #PMChat

[David T. Hulett @DavidTHulett]

Root cause analysis, start with the risks. 3-point estimate on activity durations is the image of the risks, effect not cause #PMChat

[David T. Hulett @DavidTHulett]

three main requirements are good schedule model, good risk data and a supportive corporate culture #PMChat

[David T. Hulett @DavidTHulett]

Ah, correlations. the risk driver method causes correlations to occur during simulation. No more guessing about coefficients #PMChat

[David T. Hulett @DavidTHulett]

We do not know the critical path through the schedule because risks can make slack paths critical. Hard to do in qualitative mode #PMChat

[David T. Hulett @DavidTHulett]

Yes quantification leads to re-prioritization, but you can do this consistent with the structure of the scheudle, not guessing #PMChat

[David T. Hulett @DavidTHulett]

unfortunately we also find that tornado diagrams are indicative but do not reliably priorize the risks, particularly at the P-80 #PMChat

[David T. Hulett @DavidTHulett]

We find that not all risks are included in the risk register. Interviews expose new risks that have to be added. Don't know why. #PMChat

[David T. Hulett @DavidTHulett]

Risk Register risks are used in the interviews to develop quantification such as probability and impact ranges. #PMChat

[David T. Hulett @DavidTHulett]

Yes you can respond to "red" qualitative risks, but we find that the prioritization is more accurate through the simulation modeling #PMChat