David Woo Unbound

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[David Woo Unbound @Davidwoounbound]

Markets celebrating Iran deal.

David gives it 2/3 chance of collapse in 60 days.

Why?
- Israel forced to abandon southern Lebanon
- Washington backlash building
- F-35 fleet only 25% mission capable
- Political cost too high

Markets missed the deal's weakness.

Analysis 👇

[David Woo Unbound @Davidwoounbound]

An ExxonMobil executive just said inventories are so low that oil could hit $150-$160 per barrel in weeks.
This isn't speculation. This is supply and demand.
Inventories depleted. Demand rising seasonally. Nowhere to hide.
David Woo explains 👇

[David Woo Unbound @Davidwoounbound]

@JohanLundeSagen It should be out on Audible any day now

[David Woo Unbound @Davidwoounbound]

Trump on June 5th:
"We could get it right now. I don't think they could stop us if we want it. But there's no reason to."
Translation: he's backing down from the core demand.
David Woo explains what this means for the deal 👇
Full breakdown pinned to our profile 📌

[David Woo Unbound @Davidwoounbound]

Trump announced a deal
But here's the sticking point that will kill it: Iran's enriched uranium stockpile.
Trump wants it removed. Iran sees it as a strategic asset decades in the making.
This is why the deal falls apart in 60 days 👇
Full breakdown pinned to our profile 📌

[David Woo Unbound @Davidwoounbound]

@MarioNawfal Trump has sold out America and all of its Gulf allies.

[David Woo Unbound @Davidwoounbound]

@AndrewKolvet Iran has maintained over the past twenty years that it does not plan to develop nuclear weapons. The only difference now is that idiots like Vance and Trump decide to believe them

[David Woo Unbound @Davidwoounbound]

Trump revealed something critical this week that changed everything about the Iran negotiations. He showed his hand. On June 5, Trump said about acquiring Iran's enriched uranium: "I don't think they could stop us if we wanted, but there's no reason to. I don't want to put men in that kind of danger."

On June 9, about resuming bombing: "If we go and bomb, they'll have nothing left whatsoever. But you won't have the Strait open for months. If we do the bombing, a lot of people are going to be killed.

Who wants to do that? I don't." After Iran shot down a U.S. helicopter, Trump played it down: "The pilots are fine," "It wasn't a big deal." These aren't the statements of a man ready for war. They're the statements of a man looking for an exit.

Has the Leverage Has Shifted to Iran?

[David Woo Unbound @Davidwoounbound]

Oil prices could surge to $150-$160 per barrel in the coming weeks. This forecast is driven by declining crude oil inventories, which remain at extremely low levels for this time of year.
Are you positioned for $150 oil?
Full video pinned to our page.

[David Woo Unbound @Davidwoounbound]

Iran suspended talks. Trump was using negotiations to gather intel while keeping oil calm.
Now that cover is gone. Oil prices are heading higher 👇
Full breakdown pinned to our profile 📌

[David Woo Unbound @Davidwoounbound]

Anthropic restricted Claude Mythos because it's too dangerous to release widely.
But restricted access means no monetization. Open access means China gets it.
The impossible choice facing frontier AI before the IPO 👇
Full breakdown pinned to our profile 📌

[David Woo Unbound @Davidwoounbound]

Yesterday, June 3rd, not a single tanker passed through the Strait of Hormuz.
The strait is not threatened. It is not disputed.
It is closed.
Iran deployed additional mines and fired on vessels attempting the cleared corridor. Traffic has dried up.
This is the scenario David Woo predicted 👇
Full breakdown pinned to our profile 📌

[David Woo Unbound @Davidwoounbound]

Why have bond yields surged while gold prices and other traditional safe havens sold off during the Iran war?
The obvious explanation is rising oil prices and an inflationary oil shock tied to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. But the bond sell-off tells a more complicated story.
In this video, I examine why higher real yields — not just higher inflation expectations or breakeven inflation — have been driving the sharp rise in Treasury yields and the repricing of the long end of the curve. The key question: is this really about oil… or is it about the resurgence of the AI trade?

[David Woo Unbound @Davidwoounbound]

Robert Kagan just wrote in The Atlantic that a US defeat in Iran would be more damaging to American global standing than Vietnam and Afghanistan combined.
Iran becomes a world player. China and Russia are strengthened. America is seen as unreliable.
A global chain reaction begins 👇
Full breakdown pinned to our profile 📌

[David Woo Unbound @Davidwoounbound]

Not a day passes without a new rumor of a US-Iran deal.
Markets get whipsawed by every headline.
But David Woo says Trump has a clear incentive to convince markets a deal is coming right up until he gives the order to end the ceasefire.
War risk premium is dangerously underpriced 👇
Full breakdown pinned to our profile 📌

[David Woo Unbound @Davidwoounbound]

Trump sees himself as one of the greatest presidents in American history.
And he has one extreme political weakness: his sensitivity to perceptions of weakness, defeat, or humiliation.
David Woo's bet: Trump is more likely to double down in Iran than to surrender.
This is not hope. It is psychology 👇
Full breakdown pinned to our profile 📌

[David Woo Unbound @Davidwoounbound]

@Anthony73327781 It has plenty of nuclear bombs

[David Woo Unbound @Davidwoounbound]

Lyndon Johnson on March 8, 1965: cautious, calculating, hated the odds in Vietnam. But he sent 3,500 Marines anyway because he feared the perception of American failure. Trump is a far bigger risk taker than Johnson ever was. David Woo's conclusion: Trump will escalate in Iran 👇Full breakdown pinned to our profile 📷📌

[David Woo Unbound @Davidwoounbound]

Same in Afghanistan.
Iran is different. David Woo explains why the US doesn't need regime change in Iran.
It just needs to weaken the regime enough to force it into a more constrained position.
That's a much lower bar to clear 👇
Full breakdown pinned to our profile 📌

[David Woo Unbound @Davidwoounbound]

Trump faces an impossible choice: accept humiliation or escalate the Iran war. History suggests he'll choose escalation. S&P 500 and Treasury correlation just hit 20-year highs. Bonds no longer hedge equities. Volatility surging. Why? Oil prices driving everything. At $100/barrel, a 10% oil move has twice the impact on global economy vs $50/barrel. Every market now depends on getting oil prices—and the Iran conflict—right. TRUMP'S VIETNAM MOMENT: Trump is not Lyndon Johnson. But he faces the same choice Johnson faced on March 8, 1965—the day LBJ authorized 3,500 Marines to Vietnam. Johnson knew better. A year before Vietnam, he told his national security adviser: "I don't think it's worth fighting for and I don't think we can get out. It's just the biggest damned mess." Military estimates: 5 years, 500,000 troops. Yet Johnson authorized the war anyway. Why? He couldn't afford to appear weak during Cold War. Withdrawal would damage US credibility with allies. Once committed, retreat became inconceivable. His presidency and credibility were on the line.