@lymanstoneky link to the mathematical model used by PEPFAR and UNAIDS, although ultimately the calibration and specification of assumptions (# on treatment, condoms, PMTCT, PrEP, etc.) all influence the outcome. https://t.co/rNh2hmEsAh
@lymanstoneky Also, because they use mathematical modeling, their estimate almost certainly (although hard to confirm given transparency issues) includes future deaths. The model estimates HIV-infections averted this year or past years, and those are people who wouldn't die for several years