System Signal

Daily divergence signals:
STOCK Act (Congress) | Form 4 (Insiders) | Polymarket (Prediction markets)
What they file ≠ what they say.
Follow for the filings.

[System Signal @DC_Portfolio]

Three filing systems. Updated daily.

STOCK Act — what Congress trades.
Form 4 — what insiders buy and sell.
Polymarket — what the money prices.

What they file ≠ what they say.
Follow for the filings.

[System Signal @DC_Portfolio]

Insiders haven't bought the ceasefire yet.
11 consecutive weeks of selling.

The ceasefire is 24 hours old. The filings take longer.

Source: SEC Form 4. Polymarket.

[System Signal @DC_Portfolio]

Oil: $116 → $94 in one day.

The ceasefire repriced everything:

Fed zero cuts 2026: 41.65% → 32.2%.
Rate cut window reopening.

S&P surging. Gold flat. BTC spiked to $72K.

The war premium evaporated.

The question: do the insiders start buying?

Source: Polymarket.

[System Signal @DC_Portfolio]

The ceasefire scorecard:

Oil $90 LOW in April: 52.5% YES. Was impossible yesterday.
Hormuz 60+ ships this week: 71% YES.
End of military operations by April 30: 48.5%.
End of operations by May 31: 72.5%.

Insider buy/sell: 0.20x. 11th bearish week.
$238M bought vs $1.21B sold.

[System Signal @DC_Portfolio]

Today: Islamabad Accord. Two-week ceasefire.
Oil: $116 → $94.

The filings, not the feelings.

Source: SEC Form 4.

[System Signal @DC_Portfolio]

Oil crashed 16.5% today. Largest single-day move since COVID

Energy insiders filed $3.68B in exits before it happened

101 sellers 1 buyer 10 weeks

Carlos Slim $527M
$FANG $2.7B
$COP CEO $64.5M
$CVX $HAL 14 companies

Ceasefire was announced today.
Filings were filed weeks ago

[System Signal @DC_Portfolio]

The energy insider timeline:

Week 1-4: Slim begins $PBF $92M $153M $166M $100M
Week 5 $TALO opened. Second ticker
Week 6 $CVX first exit. $HAL first exit
Week 7-9 14 companies. 91 sellers.
Week 10 $3.64B cumulative. "Insiders expected duration"
Week 11 $3.68B 101 sellers 1 buyer

[System Signal @DC_Portfolio]

@WatcherGuru Morgan Stanley launching spot Bitcoin ETF.

BTC at $68,841. Up from $66K last week.

Polymarket April:
$60K dip: 30.5% YES. Was 41.5% last week.
$75K reach: 49.5% YES. Near coin flip.

Institutions entering. The prediction market is split.

- Polymarket. Follow us for daily track

[System Signal @DC_Portfolio]

@zerohedge Vance says war will conclude "very shortly"

Polymarket ceasefire by Apr 30: 28.5%
By Jun 30: 47.5%. Still below majority
By Dec 31: 69.5%

Energy insiders filed $3.64B in exits since Feb
91 sellers. 2 buyers.

"Very shortly" vs. 28.5%.

- Polymarket. Form4. Follow us for daily

[System Signal @DC_Portfolio]

Who's buying: $FLUT/Dart. $908M. Still going.
$PANW CEO. +11.1% since.

Who's selling: everything else.

Source: SEC Form 4.

[System Signal @DC_Portfolio]

10 consecutive bearish weeks.

The longest insider selling streak in the database.

This week: $278M bought. $1.53B sold. 0.18x.

Since late January, insiders have not been net buyers.

Not once.

Source: SEC Form 4.

[System Signal @DC_Portfolio]

The 10-week streak:

Week 1: 0.14x.
Week 2: 0.08x.
Week 3: 0.20x.
Week 4: 0.11x.
Week 5: 0.30x.
Week 6: 0.24x.
Week 7: 0.14x.
Week 8: 0.21x.
Week 9: 0.21x.
Week 10: 0.18x.

Average: 0.18x. $1 bought for every $5.50 sold.

[System Signal @DC_Portfolio]

What the filings showed before the decision:

Energy insiders: $3.64B in exits since Feb 1
91 sellers 2 buyers

Congress: 0 trades in 13 days

The Market expected a binary outcome.
The Insiders expected duration.

10th consecutive bearish insider week
$278M bought vs $1.53B sold.

[System Signal @DC_Portfolio]

Strike pause expired Sun
No extension announced

Instead: a new deadline. Tonight. 8 PM ET
"Power Plant Day and Bridge Day"

Market priced 55-60% chance of strikes
It got a third ultimatum targeting civilian infrastructure

Oil $111 → $115.91.
Ceasefire Apr 30: 20.5% → 28.5%.

[System Signal @DC_Portfolio]

@WatcherGuru Bitcoin at $70,000.

Polymarket April:
$60K dip: 41.5% YES.
$70K reach: resolved YES.

Strike pause expires tonight.
The prediction markets are pricing the next move, not this one.

- Polymarket. Follow for daily tracking

[System Signal @DC_Portfolio]

@Barchart M2 at $22.7T. All-time high.

$TLT: 68,289 institutional holders.
Buy/sell: 87.78x. Positioned for rate cuts.

Polymarket: zero Fed cuts 2026 at 35.65%.

Money supply expanding. Rate cuts not coming.
68,289 institutions still waiting.

-13F. Polymarket. Follow us for daily update

[System Signal @DC_Portfolio]

@KobeissiLetter Dimon warns private credit losses "larger than expected"

Blue Owl gated redemptions last week. 41% asked out

Public market insiders:
Buy/sell 0.21x. 9th consecutive bearish week
$5.8B bought vs $35.0B sold.

Private credit cracks. Public insiders exit

- Form 4. Daily tracking

[System Signal @DC_Portfolio]

$5.8B bought vs. $35.0B sold this quarter.

The AI infrastructure is being built. The insiders who built it are selling.

Source: SEC Form 4.

[System Signal @DC_Portfolio]

CoreWeave went public. Then 7 insiders sold $172.9 million in one week.

$CRWV -- AI infrastructure. GPU cloud.

CFO Venturo: $116.5M. 20 transactions.
CEO Intrator: $40.7M.
COO McBee: $15.7M.

The largest post-IPO insider selling week in the database.

Source: SEC Form 4.

[System Signal @DC_Portfolio]

AI infrastructure insider scorecard:

$CRWV 7 insiders, $172.9M. Post-IPO. 1 week.
$NVDA $108M from 5 executives. Ongoing.
$AVGO Samueli, $250M in one day. 16 tranches.
$DELL Silver Lake, $321M. 121 transactions.

Buy/sell across tech: 0.21x. 9th bearish week.

[System Signal @DC_Portfolio]

$1 billion says one thing.
$3.9 million says another.

Source: SEC Form 4. Stock Act. Polymarket.

[System Signal @DC_Portfolio]

Energy insider selling just crossed $1B

9 weeks 14 companies 35+ sellers

Carlos Slim: $527M $PBF + $TALO
$COP CEO $64.5M
$CVX first Chevron exit
$HAL first Halliburton exit
$LNG $METC $OXY $DVN $EOG

Oil at $111. Strike pause expires tonight

$1B in exits before the decision

[System Signal @DC_Portfolio]

$1B energy exit vs buyers

Sold $1.08B across 14 companies. 9 weeks.
Bought $BORR 2 insiders $3.9M. Offshore drilling

Buy/sell: $1 for every $277 sold.

Congress: 0 trades in 12 days.
Polymarket oil $120 April: 80.5% YES.
Ceasefire by Apr 30: 20.5%; 50.5% three weeks ago.