Duggy Diggert @ddiggert - Twitter Profile

5 days ago

$UAMY is starting up a $9B tungsten mine in business friendly Ontario. Tungsten sales will dwarf antimony in it’s first month of operation.

Teo

@Teo_Sinamin

15 days ago

Nikkei reported that Japan’s tungsten imports from China fell by 50%. That is technically true. But it misses the critical number. Tungsten export to Japan have effectively stopped. Zero shipments since the overnight ban. But... Japan’s import data can still capture cargo that had already left China before the restriction fully hit. Material at sea does not disappear from customs data just because the policy changed at the Chinese border. The Jan. 6 measure was effective immediately. If suppliers had cargo ready to clear, there was every incentive to push it through before the window closed. Anyone who has dealt with China-side customs timing will understand how quickly that behaviour can happen around a sudden policy change. But once the control had landed, no Chinese exporter was going to risk jail time just to sell Japan a few extra tonnes of tungsten. So from Japan’s side, imports look like they are falling. From China’s side, the flow has already stopped. That is the real story. And the impact on Japan’s tungsten industry is not theoretical. China exported only 2 tonnes of APT, which 0 went to Japan in 26Q1. Japan is now trying to work around the shortage by importing tungsten scrap from other countries. Imports of tungsten scrap from the US jumped by around 1,000%. That is emergency substitution in desperation. The pressure is already hitting Japanese manufacturers. Mitsubishi Materials has announced price increases of more than 3x for some tungsten materials from June orders. Sumitomo Electric says procurement from China has stopped. Around 30% of its cutting-tool raw material previously came from China. NS Tool says tungsten prices have risen around 7x over the past year, making earnings forecasts difficult. OSG is increasing imports from Europe and warning that cost pass-through is unavoidable. One Osaka carbide toolmaker is reportedly considering production cuts of around 20%. Japan can recycle more scraps. It can pay more for US, European and Southeast Asian material. It can stretch inventories. But it's not sustainable. Recycling cannot instantly replace a Chinese supply chain that took decades to build. The market intelligence I have seen suggests some Japanese users may only have enough tungsten to last until around late June. If that is even roughly correct, the next few weeks matter. This is why tungsten should be watched closely. It is not just a niche metal. It is critical for carbide cutting tools, automotive and aerospace machining, semiconductors, electronics and defence applications. China spent decades controlling the upstream supply and the licensing channel. Multiple laws & regulations have been revised to tighten their control. A 50% fall in imports sounds manageable. Zero China-side exports is the warning signal.

Teo_Sinamin's tweet photo. Nikkei reported that Japan’s tungsten imports from China fell by 50%.

That is technically true.

But it misses the critical number.

Tungsten export to Japan have effectively stopped. Zero shipments since the overnight ban.

But...

Japan’s import data can still capture cargo that had already left China before the restriction fully hit. Material at sea does not disappear from customs data just because the policy changed at the Chinese border.

The Jan. 6 measure was effective immediately. If suppliers had cargo ready to clear, there was every incentive to push it through before the window closed. Anyone who has dealt with China-side customs timing will understand how quickly that behaviour can happen around a sudden policy change.

But once the control had landed, no Chinese exporter was going to risk jail time just to sell Japan a few extra tonnes of tungsten.

So from Japan’s side, imports look like they are falling.

From China’s side, the flow has already stopped.

That is the real story.

And the impact on Japan’s tungsten industry is not theoretical.

China exported only 2 tonnes of APT, which 0 went to Japan in 26Q1. Japan is now trying to work around the shortage by importing tungsten scrap from other countries. Imports of tungsten scrap from the US jumped by around 1,000%.

That is emergency substitution in desperation.

The pressure is already hitting Japanese manufacturers.

Mitsubishi Materials has announced price increases of more than 3x for some tungsten materials from June orders.

Sumitomo Electric says procurement from China has stopped. Around 30% of its cutting-tool raw material previously came from China.

NS Tool says tungsten prices have risen around 7x over the past year, making earnings forecasts difficult.

OSG is increasing imports from Europe and warning that cost pass-through is unavoidable.

One Osaka carbide toolmaker is reportedly considering production cuts of around 20%.

Japan can recycle more scraps. It can pay more for US, European and Southeast Asian material. It can stretch inventories.

But it's not sustainable. Recycling cannot instantly replace a Chinese supply chain that took decades to build.

The market intelligence I have seen suggests some Japanese users may only have enough tungsten to last until around late June. If that is even roughly correct, the next few weeks matter.

This is why tungsten should be watched closely.

It is not just a niche metal. It is critical for carbide cutting tools, automotive and aerospace machining, semiconductors, electronics and defence applications.

China spent decades controlling the upstream supply and the licensing channel. Multiple laws & regulations have been revised to tighten their control.

A 50% fall in imports sounds manageable.

Zero China-side exports is the warning signal.

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Duggy Diggert

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