DealFlow Desk

US event-driven M&A. A few positions a month, full record published, losses included. No hype. Educational content only. Not financial advice.

[DealFlow Desk @DealFlowDesk]

We run an event-driven M&A book in US equities. Before you decide whether to follow, here is the recent record, losses included. All figures before costs, all alerted to members in real time before posting here.

[DealFlow Desk @DealFlowDesk]

Piece by @EdHammondNY on FT Alphaville, well worth reading in full.

[DealFlow Desk @DealFlowDesk]

Ed Hammond spent a decade reporting M&A for the FT and Bloomberg. His FT Alphaville piece last month, on where deal scoops actually come from, should be required reading for anyone who trades takeover headlines. Here's what it looks like from the trading side.

[DealFlow Desk @DealFlowDesk]

Published stories still carry real information. A named outlet has confirmed with people who know the facts. But an agreed deal is the only fact that can't be walked back. Everything before it is somebody's position. Educational content only. Not financial advice.

[DealFlow Desk @DealFlowDesk]

@GeoInvesting @InfoArbMonitor Agree the timing looks early for holders. The practical problem is the 31% already committed to vote in favour, which leaves little room to block it. The go-shop is probably the realistic route to a better price, if anyone's willing to pay for the transformation story.

[DealFlow Desk @DealFlowDesk]

Worth noting against today's tape. PSNL has since recovered alongside the acquirer, which is the ratio lesson running in both directions. The repricing risk on announcement day was real, and the recovery since belongs to Tempus's share price, not to the headline. With stock consideration you are trading the acquirer from that morning on, whichever way it moves.

[DealFlow Desk @DealFlowDesk]

A lesson from our own book on why the headline price in an all-stock deal is not a floor. We were long $PSNL when Tempus agreed to acquire it at a $16.25 headline value. We exited at $13.64. Days later the stock was near $12.22. Here is why.

[DealFlow Desk @DealFlowDesk]

Full post-mortems like this go out free on the channel, winners and losers both. Educational content only. Not financial advice. Trading involves risk. All figures before costs.

[DealFlow Desk @DealFlowDesk]

We post the framework pieces and post-mortems free. Trade alerts go to members first. Educational content only. Not financial advice. Trading involves risk. All figures before costs.

[DealFlow Desk @DealFlowDesk]

We run an event-driven M&A book in US equities. Before you decide whether to follow, here is the recent record, losses included. All figures before costs, all alerted to members in real time before posting here.

[DealFlow Desk @DealFlowDesk]

We publish that split because it changed how we trade. Flow observation before any story exists is the edge. Chatter without corroboration is the tax. Sizing now follows that line.