Switzerland vs Algeria feels closer than it looks.
Switzerland: 7 pts, unbeaten.
Algeria: 5 goals, plenty of chaos.
Our model:
Switzerland 44%, Draw 27%, Algeria 29%
Swiss edge, but not by much.
Ronaldo vs Modrić in a World Cup knockout game.
Portugal have the H2H edge, but our model has it tight:
🧮Portugal 43%, Draw 27%, Croatia 30%
Portugal favourites, yes...but Croatia rarely make knockout football easy.
Spain vs Austria opens today’s knockouts.
Spain: 7 points, 5 goals, 0 conceded.
Our model:
Spain 71%, Draw 20%, Austria 9%
Spain should have too much, but Austria’s 96th-minute equaliser vs Algeria shows they don’t go quietly.
@fiago7 Spain, Portugal, Switzerland.
Spain feel the strongest pick of the three.
Portugal vs Croatia is the one I’d be most nervous about, Croatia are rarely an easy knockout opponent.
Switzerland vs Algeria feels closer than the odds suggest.
@FIFAWorldCup Today’s slate has range.
Spain trying to pass teams to death again: 69% average possession.
Portugal vs Croatia has Ronaldo, Modrić and knockout scars everywhere.
Switzerland vs Algeria feels like the sneaky tight one.
USA get their home knockout test against Bosnia.
Our model:
USA 71%, Draw 20%, Bosnia 9%
The hosts scored 8 in the groups, but also conceded 4. Bosnia can make it awkward, but USA have the clear edge.
Belgium vs Senegal might be a trap game.
Belgium topped the group, but only won 1 of 3.
Senegal only scraped through, but scored 8 and arrive off a 5-0 win.
Our model:
Belgium 48%, Draw 26%, Senegal 25%
Belgium edge, but this is dangerous.
@FOXSports England vs DR Congo feels simple on paper.
It probably won’t be.
England should dominate the ball, but this is likely another “break down the wall” game.
Early goal and it could be comfortable.
No early goal and England fans start ageing rapidly.
@SkyFootball England should book it.
They’ve had 66% average possession and 24 corners in 3 games, but the real test is turning control into goals.
DR Congo will likely sit deep.
Early goal = comfortable night.
No early goal = England Twitter meltdown.
England should beat DR Congo.
But this has all the ingredients of an annoying England knockout game:
> Deep defence.
> Long spells of control.
> Not many chances.
> Everyone getting tense after 55 minutes.
Our model:
England 73%, Draw 19%, DR Congo 8%
@FOXSports@USMNT Huge night for the USMNT.
8 goals in 3 group games.
Top of Group D.
Home knockout game.
But Bosnia have scored 5 from just 27 shots, so they don’t need much to make it awkward.
USA favourites, but they need to be sharp.
@FIFAWorldCup Proper knockout slate.
England have the talent, but DR Congo could make it ugly.
Belgium vs Senegal feels the most dangerous on paper.
USA at home against Bosnia is a huge test of whether the hosts are serious contenders.
Three very different games.
Mexico vs Ecuador under the lights in Mexico City.
Mexico are 3 from 3, scored 6, conceded 0, and now get a knockout game in front of a huge home crowd.
Our model:
Mexico 57%, Draw 24%, Ecuador 18%
Ecuador can make this awkward, but El Tri have the edge.
@FOXSports Mexico at home in a knockout game is going to be some atmosphere.
3 wins, 6 goals scored, 0 conceded
But Ecuador are dangerous and already beat Germany.
Mexico favourites for me, but this has “decided by one moment” written all over it.
France vs Sweden is the next Round of 32 tie.
France won all 3 group games, scored 10, and our model makes them clear favourites:
France 73%, Draw 19%, Sweden 8%
Sweden have scored 7 themselves, but this is a huge step up.
Ivory Coast vs Norway is a proper knockout test.
Norway have Haaland, 8 group-stage goals, and the market edge.
But our model has it tighter:
Ivory Coast 33%, Draw 27%, Norway 40%
Ivory Coast only trailed for minutes in the group stage. This could be awkward.
Netherlands vs Morocco might be the Round of 32 tie.
Both unbeaten. Both on 7 points. Both scoring freely.
Our model:
Netherlands 39%, Draw 27%, Morocco 34%
Very little between them, and Morocco are not a “dark horse” anymore.
Germany scored 10 goals in the group stage. Paraguay scored just 2.
Now they meet in the Round of 32.
Our model:
Germany 63%, Draw 23%, Paraguay 15%
Germany are clear favourites, but the market is even stronger at 71%.
Netherlands vs Morocco might be the tie of the Round of 32.
Both unbeaten. Both finished on 7 points.
Netherlands are the tournament’s most clinical side:
⚽️ 10 goals from 40 shots
🎯 25% conversion
Morocco are no longer a dark horse. This is a proper knockout test.
Brazil vs Japan: knockout time.
Brazil are the market favourites, but our model says it’s far closer:
BRA 45% | Draw 27% | JPN 28%.
Both smashed in 7 goals in the groups, and Japan beat Brazil 3–2 in 2025. Big name vs dangerous underdog, this one’s live.