Deepak anto

HUMAN

[DiscussingFilm @DiscussingFilm]

Messi meets Spider-Man in a new teaser for ‘SPIDER-MAN: BRAND NEW DAY’.

[Ingrid🇦🇷 @iingridrod]

Cómo hizo para saber que venía una segunda pelota detrás de él

[vixhaℓ @TheVixhal]

I found out my girlfriend was lying about one guy.

For months, she kept saying he was just a friend, and honestly I believed it enough to not make it a daily issue. Not fully, but enough.

You know that weird place where something feels off, but you also don't want to become that insecure person who questions every name?

Then one night, her phone was on the table and his notification came.

“Reached home?”

That message alone was not proof of anything. People can ask that. Friends can ask that. I was still trying to be normal about it.

But then I remembered she told me she was out with her cousins.

So I asked casually, “Who dropped you?”

She said, “My cousin.”

I asked which cousin.

She paused.

That pause did more damage than the message.

After that, the story started changing as she spoke. First it was cousins. Then it was cousins and friends. Then he was there too, but only for a while.

Then it became, “Actually, he dropped me because it was late.” Then somehow I became insecure for even asking.

Bro, I was literally watching the probability update in real time. The notification changed it a little. Then the pause changed it even more.

By the time the story changed for the third time, the calculation was basically done.

That is Bayes theorem.

Bayes theorem is what happens when you start with a belief, observe new evidence, and update that belief.

Formula:
P(H | E) = (P(E | H) × P(H)) / P(E)

Where:
- H: Hypothesis
- E: Event (what you observe)
- P(H): Prior probability
- P(E): Overall probability of event
- P(E|H): Prob. of event if hypothesis was true
- P(H|E): Probability hypothesis is true given event (updated belief)

Let's take an example and solve it step by step:

Suppose your girlfriend is honest 95% of the time and lies 5% of the time. She avoids eye contact 30% of the time when she is honest and 80% of the time when she is lying.

If she avoids eye contact, find the probability that she is lying.

Step 1: Define Hypotheses
- H1: She is honest
- H2: She is lying

Step 2: Define Event
- Event (E) = She avoids eye contact

Step 3: Write Priors
- P(H1) = 0.95 (honest)
- P(H2) = 0.05 (lying)

Step 4: Write the Likelihoods

Avoids eye contact when honest
- P(E | H1) = 0.30

Avoids eye contact when lying
- P(E | H2) = 0.80

Step 5: Calculate the Total Probability

P(E) = P(E|H1)×P(H1) + P(E|H2)×P(H2)
P(E) = (0.30)(0.95) + (0.80)(0.05)
P(E) = 0.285 + 0.04
P(E) = 0.325

Step 6: Apply Bayes Theorem
- P(H2 | E) = (P(E | H2) × P(H2)) / P(E)
- P(H2 | E) = ((0.80)(0.05)) / 0.325
- P(H2 | E) = 0.123

Final Answer:
If she avoids eye contact, the probability that she is lying is 12.3%.

Congratulations, you have just learned Bayes theorem!

[Harry @Realmecore_0]

POV: You buy a gaming laptop to study

[Mathias @MathiasChu]

Podemos charlar de cómo recibe la pelota en el segundo gol?

[TK @TeaKupps]

Just clocked that the ball actually deflected off the defenders foot and yet Messi still somehow controlled it lol

[َ @MessiiiGoat]

أكثر ثنائي أناني في الكورة

[RETURN OF THE MAC 🇮🇪☘️🥃 @PoirierGaethje]

the triangle is complete

[Kay💧 @Kaypoisson1]

The way Ronaldo will be eager to score against DR Congo tomorrow after that Messi banger, all the fans that will be behind the Goalposts should go to the stadium with Helmets

[Kay💧 @Kaypoisson1]

“ I can Score 4 goals against DR congo”

“ I can Score 4 goals against DR Congo”

“ If Messi scored 3 I can score 4 goals”

[🇦🇷 @edgeandgonee]

For anyone acting surprised, this is how he arrived at this World Cup.

[𝓐𝓪𝓷𝔂𝓪 🎧 @AanyaQt2]

Smiling through the damage because explaining it is jst too exhausting... 💔🍻

[🦋𝑱𝒆𝒔𝒔𝒊𝒆 @yoursjessie_]

Always 🫠

[Noah @NoahKingJr]

Claude watching me write code manually after I hit the daily limit

[Historic Vids @historyinmemes]

In 2017 an Estonian reporter tried to interview a deer. This was the result

[BeksFCB @Joshua__Ubeku]

Omo, look at Messi oh! 💀💀💀 https://t.co/pS3PPgGzZz

[Charles. @Vigoz_909]

The Fermin lopez before Fermin lopez

[Steeze 💎 @__Steeze1]

Henry was spot on this one.
No genuine football fan will hate the best Football club. 🔵🔴

[TOMI$IN🏅 @tomisinfcb]

The most mentally ill player have ever seen.

[Massimo @Rainmaker1973]

Real life vs cartoon