DeepFlow Investment

while waiting

[IREN @IREN_Ltd]

Horizon 1: delivered.

IREN has delivered Horizon 1 to Microsoft and achieved NVIDIA Exemplar Cloud status on NVIDIA GB300 NVL72.

Read more: https://t.co/ItVXSXK1V7

[DeepFlow Investment @DeepFlowInv]

@pepe_maltese My limited understanding is, this is meant to protect their decision making power against being diluted by future investments from companies like nvda.

[DeepFlow Investment @DeepFlowInv]

$PLTR

[Palantir @PalantirTech]

Intelligence should be sovereign.

[DeepFlow Investment @DeepFlowInv]

Confirmed.
I can feel it.

[SemiAnalysis @SemiAnalysis_]

SHOCKING: Many neocloud executives we spoke with feel that if they have non-NVIDIA networking gear on their cluster, or if their cloud has an AMD GPU or TPU offering, NVIDIA will retaliate. They feel that retaliation includes not giving early allocation or no longer supporting a potential IPO/VC raise.(1/3)🧵

[DeepFlow Investment @DeepFlowInv]

The vision of $IREN has been changed by $NVDA whose arm is too long.

Time to consider selling.

[Jim Liu @jiahanjimliu]

$IREN Gold State Jersey: Why?

As a software engineer, I dislike advertising spend. My first reaction was negative: why would IREN spend $20m a year on NBA advertising? The previous Golden State Warriors sponsor, Rakuten, had a 3 year 60 million contract to get their logo on the Golden State Warriors Jersey (1). Those were in GS's championship contention years but likely the price is still around that price range.

Some people are mad at @danroberts0101 for communicating that IREN was targeting hyperscaler customers that don't need software or marketing. Both the Mirantis acquisition and the GS sponsorship are without a doubt not for selling to capacity to hyperscalers and Metas of the world but for small enterprise customers that currently need orchestration software. So why the sudden pivot?

This comes back to Nvidia GPU allocation and Nvidia's incentives. Nvidia's mold of the Neocloud is one that competes with the hyperscalers. Nvidia is not going to allocate GPUs to IREN if all IREN is going to do is build out capacity for Microsofts and Metas of the world when both are attempting their own ASICs. Nvidia is going to allow IREN to sell some capacity to hyperscalers but they better also be benefitting the Nvidia agenda.

To fit the Nvidia agenda, IREN needs to be compete against the hyperscalers for customers. You see, hyperscalers own the customer relationship and are attempting to swap out the GPU layer with their own ASICs ala TPU and Trainium. Nvidia need to hedge with a different store front for these small enterprise customers. Nvidia has worked very hard to secure HBM, with Jensen essentially going to Korea to kowtow to SK and Samsung for capacity and HBM is sold out for all of 2026 (2), so it's clear that GPU is sold out for 2026. GPU access is essentially HBM access since they are co-packaged.

GPU access problem for IREN in 2026. In order to address this for 2027, Nvidia probably demanded the following: become a Neocloud that sells to small enterprise customers. IREN has no choice but to agree and make the pivot for half their capacity. This is clear in the sequence of events:
1. Nvidia sets up IREN to acquire Mirantis for orchestration software.
2. IREN becomes a Nvidia partner and Nvidia is given options to buy IREN stock contingent on GPU deliveries.
3. IREN has to show up and market to small enterprise customers. Showing up means acquire-hire of Awaken marketing company and sponsoring GS so that IREN will hav reach to small enterprise customers. Once Nvidia sees that IREN is getting traction with small enterprise customers, then Nvidia will be able to allocate IREN GPUs as it benefits Nvidia's long term strategy.

Going forward IREN will sell both to large enterprises and small enterprises. Small enterprises to fit the mold that Nvidia has for Neoclouds. IREN has to fit the Nvidia mold to not repeat it's 2026 problem: GPU priority.

IREN will be getting enough GPUs to fill out it's 3.7B but getting them later in the schedule delayed debugging of it's current buildout. I expect IREN to hand over H1 in late July or August and clear expectations for bring up. H1-4 will be IREN's large enterprise deliverable and IREN will likely have to sell to smaller enterprises for the 50k B300s ordered earlier this year. This will require the Mirantis acquisition to finish in August which also explains why the 50k B300s are un-contracted for now.

[DeepFlow Investment @DeepFlowInv]

Still not enough blood yet
$MSTR

[Tracy Alloway @tracyalloway]

Hyperscaler free cashflow projections via Charlie McElligott at Nomura:

[DeepFlow Investment @DeepFlowInv]

$STRC

[Jesse Myers @Croesus_BTC]

STRC down to $82.6 today. Here's my read:

1. Strategy is fine. If everything stays as is, they can pay STRC dividends for 32 years. If BTC appreciates at ~2% CAGR, they can pay dividends indefinitely.

2. Why the sell-off? This appears to be a liquidation cascade.

Over the last 6 months, the narrative became that STRC volatility was reducing, and price began to spend all its time in $99-100 range.

This invites leverage. If you expect the price to always be north of $95, you can take on 20x leverage with your portfolio to buy more STRC and dramatically increase the yield on your portfolio.

This works great, until it doesn't.

STRC is designed as a free-market asset. When attention shifted to SATA and STRC price flagged, it may have raised the attention of opportunistic short-selling hedge funds.

By shorting aggressively, they could push the price down and start triggering margin calls and liquidations from folks who aggressively levered up their STRC positions.

The price action today is a clear liquidation cascade, rapidly pushing prices lower, in turn triggering additional liquidations.

3.
What happens now? The market will heal itself.

Opportunistic hedge funds will recognize that this is a firesale and the fundamentals are unchanged for STRC and step in as buyers. Shorts will close, becoming buyers. Individuals are getting a tremendous entry price for long-term holding STRC shares.

Buyers at this level will get ~13.7% effective yield. If STRC trades back to $100 and they sell, they get an easy +18% return.

4.
What will Strategy do?

Strategy will likely increase the dividend rate on June 30 - maybe to 11.75% but possibly to 12%. Buyers at the current price level then would get 14.2% effective yield from that point forward.

Strategy may also step in to buy STRC shares back. They could do this by issuing new shares of MSTR (currently at 1.14 mNAV) or by taking on traditional debt and deploying those funds to buy discounted STRC shares on the market.

If/when STRC trades back to $100, Strategy could then re-issue those STRC shares. The ~$15 delta per share could be used to buy BTC as pure accretion to MSTR holders, with no net change to amplification.

No doubt that Saylor has already at least considered this, and it wouldn't surprise me if they're currently doing this.

5.
In summary...

The market is freaked out that this depeg is like Terra/Luna... but this is not an asset like that. Strategy's balance sheet determines whether STRC continues to receive dividend payments... and Strategy's balance sheet is completely unchanged.

This is a leverage wipeout.

From this, the market will learn that Digital Credit is mostly very low volatility. But because it is a free market asset, the longer that a Digital Credit instrument trades within a tight range to par... the more leverage will inevitably pile up as people get greedy.

And that creates the conditions for a leverage wipeout depeg. Following that, the instrument will make its way back to par value as the market heals itself and recognizes that the dividend payments will continue uninterrupted because the issuer's balance sheet is unaffected.

[DeepFlow Investment @DeepFlowInv]

Remember the biggest factor in the market now is the fragile BOJ.

[DeepFlow Investment @DeepFlowInv]

Iran is for sure not to be the last target. Hold on.

[DeepFlow Investment @DeepFlowInv]

A market in which most of the retailers earn happy money never exists. Never ever.

[Global Markets Investor @GlobalMktObserv]

‼️The retail investor party is reminiscent of the period before the 2022 bear market:

Retail investors now reflect over 20% of the US total equity market volume, near an all-time high

This percentage has doubled since 2010 and is only below the peak seen during the meme stock mania of 2021.

This was just weeks before the 2022 bear market began.

Meanwhile, long-only and hedge funds have seen their share dropping to 15%, from 23% in 2010.

Mom-and-pop investors are ALL-IN on the market.

[DeepFlow Investment @DeepFlowInv]

Simple math.
Watch this.

[Global Markets Investor @GlobalMktObserv]

‼️Japanese government bonds are now offering more income than Japanese stocks for the first time since 2008:

The 10-year JGB yield has risen above the Topix dividend yield for the first time since the Financial Crisis

TAP IMAGE TO SEE FULL INSIGHT👇
https://t.co/tUH1JiFyLM

[DeepFlow Investment @DeepFlowInv]

Remember the biggest factor in the market now is the fragile BOJ.

[Global Markets Investor @GlobalMktObserv]

🚨THE BANK OF JAPAN IS IN PANIC MODE:

The BOJ is expected to raise its key interest rate by +25 basis points to 1.0% at its June 15-16 policy meeting, according to Nikkei, with markets pricing a 93% probability of this move.

This would be the first rate hike in 6 months and the highest Japanese interest rate since 1995, the first time at or above 1.0% in more than 3 decades.

At the same time, the BOJ is considering pausing its ongoing government bond buying reduction program from April 2027, meaning it would stop cutting purchases further.

This bond purchase reduction program has been running since 2024 as part of Governor Ueda's efforts to unwind decades of massive monetary stimulus.

This news sent the 10-year Japanese Government Bond yield down -5 basis points to 2.665% on Tuesday, the 30-year yield fell -6 basis points, to 3.883%, while the 20-year yield fell -7 basis points to 3.565%.

So first, they pause the reduction in purchases. Next, bond buying will increase as yields spiral out of control.

[DeepFlow Investment @DeepFlowInv]

FUD on AI is rising again.

[DeepFlow Investment @DeepFlowInv]

@jiahanjimliu @jeremymjacquin What was definitely different in the last year is an account remarking all ATM is very toxic wouldn’t have so many followers even that a “learn investing from x” account could exist.

Interesting signal.

[DeepFlow Investment @DeepFlowInv]

@jiahanjimliu @jeremymjacquin What was definitely different in the last year is an account remarking all ATM is very toxic wouldn’t have so many followers even that a “learn investing from x” account could exist.

Interesting signal.

[DeepFlow Investment @DeepFlowInv]

20%+ cash in hand

[DeepFlow Investment @DeepFlowInv]

Blood in the street but not enough yet

[DeepFlow Investment @DeepFlowInv]

Market speculators never ever end well. That’s for sure. No uncertainty.

[DeepFlow Investment @DeepFlowInv]

If it fails

[Zephyr @zephyr_z9]

So Meta, Google, Anthropic, SpaceX, and OpenAI will raise around $350B-$400B from the public markets in the next 9-12 months
At this rate, Amazon & Microsoft will join the party too
We might even see $550B-$600B raised from the public markets